Korea 2013... War Game or political game changer?

Re: if kim is indeed mentally unstable!!!

LesAdieux said:

a couple of weeks ago, an american congressman raised the question on kim's "mental stability". I'm a little bit worried about that now, how about if the kid is indeed unstable, and he just pushes the button?!

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You'd expect the Generals under his command to notice if he was bonkers and put a bullet through his chubby face before he can push the button. If NK launches nukes at anyone, its death for the lot of them and their families when America turns NK into glass. Better to kill Dear Leader, face the firing squad and save your family.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

plawolf said:

The North Korean Air Force is so hilariously outclassed by even conventional South Korean and US air forces that there is simply no need for Raptors to do air sweeps.

If the proverbial does hit the fan, the most likely missions those F22s will perform would likely be as escorts for B2s striking deep into North Korea, likely hunting for their nukes.

Because nukes are involved, there is a very tight time factor, so the US cannot afford to wait around for their conventional forces to carve the North Korean Air Force and air defences open before they try to take those nukes out, as little time as that might take. There might not even be time to wait for the cover of darkness, so if the shootings starts in the morning, B2s will be going in nuke hunting even if they have to do it in broad daylight. If it came to that, having a wing of Raptors flying shotgun ready to take out anything the North Koreans might put up close enough to eyeball the B2s would be real useful.

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If B-2 is used to hunt for nuke and it take off from airbase in US, it would take the B-2 more than 10 hours to arrive in NK. In that case, NK has enough time to launch nuke to SK or Japan. Nukes detonate before B-2 arrives.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

SteelBird said:

If B-2 is used to hunt for nuke and it take off from airbase in US, it would take the B-2 more than 10 hours to arrive in NK. In that case, NK has enough time to launch nuke to SK or Japan. Nukes detonate before B-2 arrives.

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That is assuming the first act NK does is launch a nuke. In which case the US response would likely be delivered via SSBN launched Tridents and the B2s won't even need to lift off.

No point only preparing for extremes. Any action plan that involves B2s would likely assume that NK isn't totally suicidal and did not start any conflict with a nuke strike. More likely, it would be an accidental limited engagement, or a small scale provocation by NK like the island shelling a few years back. As soon as anything happens, I would expect B2s to be scrambled, which gives the US about 10 hours to figure out how serious the situation is and what their response would be.

The point is that having F22s nearby gives the US the option of ordering those B2s in to strike at high value targets day or night, even if NK's Air Force and air defences are still operational.

Re: if kim is indeed mentally unstable!!!

LesAdieux said:

a couple of weeks ago, an american congressman raised the question on kim's "mental stability". I'm a little bit worried about that now, how about if the kid is indeed unstable, and he just pushes the button?!

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Then DPRK will be nothing more than a smoking crater 48 hours later, and the world will be rejoiced...then left the question of "whether it'd be PLA or US Army roll into Pyongyang first?" to be answered.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

Surely there can be no doubt that the biggest threat from North Korea is and remains, not the threat from North Korea but the danger of a change to the status quo.

When Xi met with Putin in Moscow last week how high do you think discussions regarding concerns about the peninsular were in the order of business?

I think they were very high and that both have very strong views on the strategic consequences of the fall of North Korea.
Put bluntly, US forces stationed on the Korean/Chinese/Russian borders are not a option and so if there is any likelihood of a change to the status quo, it will have to be one which is to the Asian powers advantage.
This of course means not just reunifying the peninsular under the North, but most likely also neutralising Japan as a strategic US ally in the region. If Moscow and Beijing were to believe that the other side intended to change the status quo, I think it highly likely that Pre-emptive measures would be taken as indeed would the US side under similar circumstances.

Hopefully all sides are fully aware of this and will ensure that neither side spooks the other with anything "unexpected".
North Korea is however also fully aware of this and will act within the space this situation gives it and no doubt will also test the boundaries in an ungentle fashion.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

Unifying Korea under the North is simply a non-starter. Even if by some miracle the US does not step in and start WWIII, NK has already demonstrated itself to be unreliable, unpredictable, and worse of all, a completely incompetent failure. Giving Kim South Korea would just see them repeat their failure on a larger scale and in a few years the whole of Korea would be as broken and backwards as NK is today. NK is almost as much of a thread to China and Russia as it is to South Korea and Japan. Putting more people and resources under that kind of rule would be the last thing China and Russia wants.

If China and Russia are discussing military options in North Korea, they would not be thinking about fighting the South Koreans and Americans.

In the event NK actually starts a war with South Korea and America, I can see a joint Chinese and Russian force moving in to NK and toppling the current regime to end the war before the South Koreans and Americans push up to their boarders. South Korea would grab a chunk of NK and a new line of control will be drawn based of how far both sides advanced until they came face to face.

Under such a scenario, I can see China and Russia offering SK a grand deal. Either continue the stand off with new boarders, or ditch America and get all of North Korea back, and probably also reconstruction aid from China and Russia to help the rebuild and drag NK into the 21st century.

Korea gets reunified under SK leadership, China and Russia gets rid of all American bases and personnel on the Korean peninsula, and potentially gain a new ally against Japan and the US. Even if SK does not switch sides, China and Russia should at least be able to get them to declare their neutrality and they would be too preoccupied with reconstruction and integration for the next decade or two anyways.

Re: China readies military in light of North Korean threats

Well I just wrote something on this very subject in another thread.

plawolf said:

Unifying Korea under the North is simply a non-starter. Even if by some miracle the US does not step in and start WWIII, NK has already demonstrated itself to be unreliable, unpredictable, and worse of all, a completely incompetent failure. Giving Kim South Korea would just see them repeat their failure on a larger scale and in a few years the whole of Korea would be as broken and backwards as NK is today. NK is almost as much of a thread to China and Russia as it is to South Korea and Japan. Putting more people and resources under that kind of rule would be the last thing China and Russia wants.

If China and Russia are discussing military options in North Korea, they would not be thinking about fighting the South Koreans and Americans.

In the event NK actually starts a war with South Korea and America, I can see a joint Chinese and Russian force moving in to NK and toppling the current regime to end the war before the South Koreans and Americans push up to their boarders. South Korea would grab a chunk of NK and a new line of control will be drawn based of how far both sides advanced until they came face to face.

Under such a scenario, I can see China and Russia offering SK a grand deal. Either continue the stand off with new boarders, or ditch America and get all of North Korea back, and probably also reconstruction aid from China and Russia to help the rebuild and drag NK into the 21st century.

Korea gets reunified under SK leadership, China and Russia gets rid of all American bases and personnel on the Korean peninsula, and potentially gain a new ally against Japan and the US. Even if SK does not switch sides, China and Russia should at least be able to get them to declare their neutrality and they would be too preoccupied with reconstruction and integration for the next decade or two anyways.

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China is not going to war with the US over NK, especially if NK's base stupidity started the war. If the PLA is deployed, it will be deployed against NK.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

plawolf said:

Unifying Korea under the North is simply a non-starter. Even if by some miracle the US does not step in and start WWIII, NK has already demonstrated itself to be unreliable, unpredictable, and worse of all, a completely incompetent failure. Giving Kim South Korea would just see them repeat their failure on a larger scale and in a few years the whole of Korea would be as broken and backwards as NK is today. NK is almost as much of a thread to China and Russia as it is to South Korea and Japan. Putting more people and resources under that kind of rule would be the last thing China and Russia wants.

If China and Russia are discussing military options in North Korea, they would not be thinking about fighting the South Koreans and Americans.

In the event NK actually starts a war with South Korea and America, I can see a joint Chinese and Russian force moving in to NK and toppling the current regime to end the war before the South Koreans and Americans push up to their boarders. South Korea would grab a chunk of NK and a new line of control will be drawn based of how far both sides advanced until they came face to face.

Under such a scenario, I can see China and Russia offering SK a grand deal. Either continue the stand off with new boarders, or ditch America and get all of North Korea back, and probably also reconstruction aid from China and Russia to help the rebuild and drag NK into the 21st century.

Korea gets reunified under SK leadership, China and Russia gets rid of all American bases and personnel on the Korean peninsula, and potentially gain a new ally against Japan and the US. Even if SK does not switch sides, China and Russia should at least be able to get them to declare their neutrality and they would be too preoccupied with reconstruction and integration for the next decade or two anyways.

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This assumes that South Korea keeps the US out of the loop and acts to alienate the US after having North Korea under its control...why would they? I could see the US and South Korea negotiating a mutually acceptable withdrawal of forces stationed on the peninsula while maintaining military to military relations, exercises, visits, etc. Given today's budget realities I could even see the US welcoming it as a way to shore up capabilities elsewhere. There is no reason to alienate the US after the North is under South Korean control, presumed Chinese and Russian hopes not withstanding.

You can take the US bases out of Korea, but even then South Korea will retain pro-US attitudes at the government and public level for a while to come, even if its geopolitical stance might soften towards China with the disappearance of North Korea as a threat. Its going to be hard to change that quickly, unless the US government does something stupid re: US-Korean relations like throw its support behind Japan on the Dokdo/Takeshima dispute.

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

I beg to differ on that. In the event of a reunification in the post conflict period the south is likely to be the main partner. With the US playing only a support role. Its also more likely that US forces would not establish a long term base in the north but rather begin shifting forces to the south and east. East to japan. South to Pusan. This would allow more rapid deploying into Asian trouble spots. for china this would be a headache as it brings the american fleet and forces closer to claimed territories. The elimination of North Korea as a threat nation would cause american forces now parked on that boarder to be drawn down. Although a presence would still be their. The need would be for a different mission set.

Re: China readies military in light of North Korean threats

This is all politics of course.
I don't think the North Koreans are mad. But North Korea has been suffering from economic warfare by the US ever since it exists. The US have always refused to exchange ambassadors. In the end they foresee a reunification with the South after the departure of the US garrison. But ..
The US is now getting stronger, a little, by ending the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and they take the opportunity to 'pivot to East Asia'. At the same time they increase the pressure on Iran by absurdly insisting that country is developing nuclear weapons. There will be talks in Almaty in a few days time between Iran and the P5+1 group. See these two article in yesterday's Asia Times on line:


The coincidence of these talks and this Korean crisis weakens the US on both sides and that in a time of financial and economic stress.
I wonder if this crisis is orchestrated by China to prevent a crisis about Iran leading to a rise in oil prices which would be damaging to China and India when the Almaty talks end with a rupture in the P5+1 group. At the same time it impresses on South Korea the fact that a solution to the Korean problems is only possible without the US and with China. The treaty that gives the US suzerainty over South Korea is set to end in 2015.