09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[ougoah]

One type 055 can probably handle the entirety of VN and PN surface fleets (completely outdated surface vessels with close to zero meaningful air-defenses against a vessel with over 100 VLS - that's enough to intercept all the AShM on their ships and enough AShM to sink them all). Although in real life, air-superiority is king and land-based systems can dominate enough without even needing PLAN. The gap between Vietnam + Philippines is far greater than the gap between China and USA.

The only credible threat to PLAN are modern diesel electric subs. Even then, I really doubt those can amount to much against PLAN since PLAN has been playing around with those equivalent subs for more than 30 years. VN's latest and greatest Kilo class do not even have AIP and let's not forget PLAN has operated more Kilos for much longer (long enough to come out with two domesticated variants and upgrades) so they will understand and exploit its shortcomings. Should have forked out more money to buy some NATO subs. Getting Kilos and Su-30s was a really dumb idea if their intention was to counter China. From their acquisition patterns, it is clear their military leaders are stuck in cold war strategic thinking. Failure to embrace the digital age and buying weapons that China has so much experience with is a sign of technological illiteracy. Thankfully, China has gradually grown out of that thinking after US demonstrated how easy it was to counter Soviet equipment again and again.

 

[asif iqbal]

Well Soviet equipment was not that bad maybe ask the F4 Phantom pilots from Vietnam

Soviet Union was one hell of a power in the day, with vast army and resources

Towards the end their navy also reached its peak both on the surface and below

 

[Red Moon]

Getting Kilos and Su-30s was a really dumb idea if their intention was to counter China. From their acquisition patterns, it is clear their military leaders are stuck in cold war strategic thinking. Failure to embrace the digital age and buying weapons that China has so much experience with is a sign of technological illiteracy.

Maybe getting Kilos and Su-30's is a sign that their intention was NOT to counter China, and that the anti-China propaganda was hot air for tactical gains, as long as the wind was blowing the right way.

Countering China would be counterproductive in the short run and suicidal in the long run. It would put it at odds with several of its neighbors and would require an alliance with the US, etc. Getting American weapons would make it dependent on the US and unable to say no to American NGO's, color revolutions, etc.

 

[ougoah]

Maybe getting Kilos and Su-30's is a sign that their intention was NOT to counter China, and that the anti-China propaganda was hot air for tactical gains, as long as the wind was blowing the right way.

Countering China would be counterproductive in the short run and suicidal in the long run. It would put it at odds with several of its neighbors and would require an alliance with the US, etc. Getting American weapons would make it dependent on the US and unable to say no to American NGO's, color revolutions, etc.

Agreed on that possibility. But short of heavy American intervention, Vietnam military amounts to very little effectiveness against China. Their acquisitions to date, whatever they indicate, are less effective against China than they would be against a hypothetical equivalent of China with no experience with those platforms. I personally think it may have been more to do with not being politically aligned with the US but still want relatively modern weapons... sprinkle a little bit of corrupt decision makers receiving incentives from the Russians and you have Vietnam spending billions they can barely afford on Kilos and Su-30s.

Relating Vietnam back to SCS issue and back to 093/094, PLAN does need JL-3 improvements on range if they are to pursue a policy that increases dependency on SSBNs, in a move to diversify from land-based ICBMs and future hypersonic delivery vehicle (because there is constant and finite resources). The overarching strategic considerations here isn't VN and/or PN, it is USN and JMSDF. The USN dominates the Pacific, outside of the overlapping Chinese spheres of reach and operation. Beyond these relatively safe spheres, sub operations are far too risky at this stage. Who knows how much signals intel was gathered by the Japanese when the 093 was found and surfaced.

 

[gelgoog]

Vietnam has traditionally put more emphasis on their ground forces. I think the Kilos were a good purchase. Considering the price, and all the problems that European submarines at the time of that purchase had. Just ask the South Koreans or the Greeks about their issues with HDW submarines not meeting specifications in terms of either noise or reliability. The South Koreans had to retrofit a lot of fixes they themselves made to get the submarines up to spec. As for the French with their Scorpène class it is severely outdated in several regards making the Kilo look good in comparison. Most French investments in submarines in the last decades went into their nuclear submarine fleet not the diesel-electrics.

If Vietnam purchased Type 214 derivative submarines today from South Korea, then that would be a good deal, but not back then. Besides they likely still have a limited amount of reserves to buy expensive weapon systems like that. In the meantime their crews got up to date with more modern submarine designs by operating the Kilo. I think Vietnam should try to increase its shipbuilding capabilities and build either a Kilo clone or a Type 214 clone in Vietnam. In the long run that would allow them to increase their fleet. They are more interested in a doctrine of sea denial than in operating an actual blue seas fleet. So I think a navy composed of submarines, like the Type 214 and small, well armed, corvettes, like the Karakurt-class, manufactured locally would be their best choice.

Vietnam has a lot of potential. A lot of people consider it an undeveloped country, which it is, but they have a population larger than either France or Germany.

 

[ougoah]

Vietnam has traditionally put more emphasis on their ground forces. I think the Kilos were a good purchase. Considering the price, and all the problems that European submarines at the time of that purchase had. Just ask the South Koreans or the Greeks about their issues with HDW submarines not meeting specifications in terms of either noise or reliability. The South Koreans had to retrofit a lot of fixes they themselves made to get the submarines up to spec. As for the French with their Scorpène class it is severely outdated in several regards making the Kilo look good in comparison. Most French investments in submarines in the last decades went into their nuclear submarine fleet not the diesel-electrics.

If Vietnam purchased Type 214 derivative submarines today from South Korea, then that would be a good deal, but not back then. Besides they likely still have a limited amount of reserves to buy expensive weapon systems like that. In the meantime their crews got up to date with more modern submarine designs by operating the Kilo. I think Vietnam should try to increase its shipbuilding capabilities and build either a Kilo clone or a Type 214 clone in Vietnam. In the long run that would allow them to increase their fleet. They are more interested in a doctrine of sea denial than in operating an actual blue seas fleet. So I think a navy composed of submarines, like the Type 214 and small, well armed, corvettes, like the Karakurt-class, manufactured locally would be their best choice.

Vietnam has a lot of potential. A lot of people consider it an undeveloped country, which it is, but they have a population larger than either France or Germany.

Reverse engineering is much easier said than done. Practically the only nations that have demonstrated success in reverse engineering of military equipment in the modern era are China, Soviet Union (and Russia), US, Japan, South Korea, and Israel. Some others that are capable, never wanted or needed to. If it were so easy to replicate technology and the means to fabricate all the parts, most nations would be self-reliant but only a small handful are.

Vietnam may be chock full of potential, but it takes decades of near perfect planning and good fortune to realise that potential. Denying Chinese access to Vietnam landmass and Vietnamese waters is one thing they may well be capable of doing but denying China access to SCS is impossible, and that's what we're talking about here. China is not interested in invading Vietnam mainland, only in defending their island claims from Vietnam which has been done and it's unlikely the Vietnamese will turn the tide anytime soon, although they may have had more of a chance with submarines the PLAN are not so intimately familiar with. Don't get me wrong though, Kilos are good diesel-electric subs.

 

[AndrewS]

Vietnam has traditionally put more emphasis on their ground forces. I think the Kilos were a good purchase. Considering the price, and all the problems that European submarines at the time of that purchase had. Just ask the South Koreans or the Greeks about their issues with HDW submarines not meeting specifications in terms of either noise or reliability. The South Koreans had to retrofit a lot of fixes they themselves made to get the submarines up to spec. As for the French with their Scorpène class it is severely outdated in several regards making the Kilo look good in comparison. Most French investments in submarines in the last decades went into their nuclear submarine fleet not the diesel-electrics.

If Vietnam purchased Type 214 derivative submarines today from South Korea, then that would be a good deal, but not back then. Besides they likely still have a limited amount of reserves to buy expensive weapon systems like that. In the meantime their crews got up to date with more modern submarine designs by operating the Kilo. I think Vietnam should try to increase its shipbuilding capabilities and build either a Kilo clone or a Type 214 clone in Vietnam. In the long run that would allow them to increase their fleet. They are more interested in a doctrine of sea denial than in operating an actual blue seas fleet. So I think a navy composed of submarines, like the Type 214 and small, well armed, corvettes, like the Karakurt-class, manufactured locally would be their best choice.

Vietnam has a lot of potential. A lot of people consider it an undeveloped country, which it is, but they have a population larger than either France or Germany.

Given that China can easily obtain air superiority over the skies of Hanoi and North Vietnam in a conflict, how useful is the Vietnamese navy after all?

 

[gelgoog]

Given that China can easily obtain air superiority over the skies of Hanoi and North Vietnam in a conflict, how useful is the Vietnamese navy after all?

That's why they invested in submarines and small surface vessels. They're easier to hide.

 

[AndrewS]

That's why they invested in submarines and small surface vessels. They're easier to hide.

So what?

China already had the bases in the SCS that it needs to dominate those waters, short of outright military conflict with the USA.

And China has overwhelming maritime superiority over Vietnam at the militia and coast guard level, so it can pretty much build and patrol anywhere that China chooses.

So it will be on Vietnam to start a shooting conflict. And losing control over the skies of Hanoi and North Vietnam is a catastrophe compared to Vietnam being able to keep some subs and corvettes operating in the SCS.

 

[gelgoog]

It is quite simple really. The Vietnamese Navy is used both to prevent marine landings along the coast of Vietnam and to enforce their EEZ. It is not meant for deep offensives against any major sea power but mostly defensive in nature.

Back on topic, the Chinese nuclear attack submarines are mostly useful against larger diesel-electric submarines, like the ones the Japanese and Australians have, or against nuclear attack submarines like the Russians and the USA have. They can also be used to escort navy carrier groups now that China has carriers. I wonder how their future attack submarines will be optimized. In theory IMHO they will become more optimized for carrier escort duty with improved sensors and torpedos. Some claim they'll start to have VLS systems but somehow I think that will not be that likely. I suspect China will be more reliant on surface vessels to attack land targets. The attack submarines will be used to escort the surface fleet and the SSBNs. But we will see what happens.