PLAN 2018 Review (Jeff Head)

Discussion in 'Navy' started by Jeff Head, Mar 8, 2018.

  1. asif iqbal
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    asif iqbal Brigadier

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    thats a pretty decent naval fleet and I've heard some say it nothing compared to USN

    however unlike USN the Chinese do not need to forward deploy any assets and thus can concentrate them together in one area

    for example to meet demands of operational commanders USN maintained between 85-100 ships continuously deployed out of 286 ship fleet

    as of July 2018 USN had 89 ships deployed globally, 47 in Western Pacific, 27 in North Atlantic and 14 in the Persian Gulf

    as ships get more sophisticated a 4:1 ratio will be required to forward deploy 1 warship

    even if USN gets the 400-ship fleet by 2039 thats still 100 ships forward deployed with around 1/2 in Pacific even with the "Pacific pivot"

    for USN carriers the situation gets worse it takes 22 days for a Norfolk based carrier strike group to reach Persia Gulf and 18 days for San Diego based carrier strike group to transit South China Sea

    so you can see with China having 6 carriers the situation is favourable for China

    with 28 x DDG and 30 x FFG and growing China again is in a pretty good position
     
  2. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    Well, remember the Invincible Armada? The advantage of the defender is not something you can easily ignore given the ranges involved in a conflict close to China's shoreline. Especially if the Chinese start to deploy a lot of long range SAM systems close to their shores. Let's say you have a 400 km range mobile SAM system. Integrated with an OTH radar network and possibly optical satellite reconnaissance. How large is the combat loaded range of modern US carrier based fighters? Not a lot. Certainly less than a Flanker's.
     
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  3. Tam
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    Tam Senior Member
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    Don't forget the US can extend range using tankers. Not only that, they already have a contract on a stealthy drone tanker, which makes detecting and killing such tankers more difficult.
     
  4. Jura
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    Jura General

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  5. Jura
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    Jura General

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    now
    Pentagon Report Cites Rapidly Modernizing Chinese Navy https://seapowermagazine.org/report-cites-modernizing-chinese-navy/
    plus
    ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019 https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5987010/2019-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT.pdf
     
  6. Lethe
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    Lethe Senior Member

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    The Bear and the Dragon (and the Eagle) [sorry Tom Clancy]

    I think everyone here has been thoroughly impressed by the scale and pace of China's development of its naval capabilities over the last decade, and rightly so. China is displaying a level of naval dynamism that the world has not seen since the late Cold War period when Admiral Gorshkov's dream of a Soviet blue water Navy met Ronald Reagan's determination to build a 600 ship navy. But to what extent does the current period resemble those heady days, really?

    One admittedly crude method of assessment is to compare the tonnage of major surface combatants (frigates, destroyers, cruisers) commissioned over a given period. The results are as follows:

    USA 1980-1989: 452,000 tons (50xPerry, 4xKidd, 6xSprucan, 15xTico, 1xVirginia; 4xIowa battleships not included in total)
    Soviet Union 1980-1989: 339,000 tons (9xKrivak, 12xSov, 11xUdaloy, 3xSlava, 3xKirov)
    PRC 2010-2019: 236,000 tons (26x054A, 4x052C, 13x052D, 1x055)
    USA 2010-2019: 191,000 tons (12x Burke, 6xFreedom, 9xIndy, 2xZumwalt)

    All years are from Jan 1st to Dec 31st with reasonable extrapolation to end 2019. Obviously some full load displacements may be more accurate than others, and there are different tons around which I did not take the time to sort out either. I think the relationships above would hold even with more careful attention. And of course you can dig into subs, etc. too if you like.

    The point here is not to detract from China's achievements, which we can reasonably assume will continue to grow in the future. Actually this post was prompted by my recent dive into the Russian naval inventory, in the course of which I noted that the Soviet Union commissioned some serious heavy metal in that period (and continuing into the early 1990s). Respectful salutes are due all round I think.
     
    #126 Lethe, May 10, 2019
    Last edited: May 10, 2019
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  7. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Moderator
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    It is indeed interesting.
    I would be interested to see how things change between 2020 and 2029 as well, because the commissions we have seen of PLAN destroyers only really began in 2013 with no destroyers in 2010, 2011 and 2012 as no destroyers had been produced in the immediate years preceding those years.

    Whereas going into the 2020s it is likely that we will see simultaneous production of destroyers and frigates as well and a much larger number of large destroyers/055s at that.
     
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  8. Lethe
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    Lethe Senior Member

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    Extending the timeframes to the very bounds of prudence to encompass Jan 1st 1980 to December 31st 1991 (USA and USSR) and Jan 1st 2010 to December 31st 2021 (USA and PRC):

    USA 1980-1991: 513,000 tons
    Soviet Union 1980-1991: 376,000 tons
    PRC 2010-2021: 308,000 tons
    USA 2010-2021: 262,000 tons
     
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  9. Jura
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    Jura General

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    I think the USN issue is exacerbated by inducting unarmed vessels, so called game-changers;
    if ever there was an euphemistic sentence, it would be this one (the CNO recently):
    "However, the danger of chasing ship counts is that it could drive the Navy toward buying platforms it doesn’t need to meet a specific number, Richardson said." https://www.defensenews.com/digital...SWN0IDuuNrw3lRq0ApP9XUuZh-8YlLzTCpCQGdMGW3AsM
     
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  10. Lethe
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    Lethe Senior Member

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    In both sets of numbers above I erroneously counted the four FFG-7s built for Australia as part of USN totals, and seem to have miscounted anyway. 48 FFG-7s were commissioned into USN during the period in question, subtract 8,400 tons from previous figure.

    Revised:
    USA 1980-1991: 505,000 tons
    Soviet Union 1980-1991: 376,000 tons
    PRC 2010-2021: 308,000 tons
    USA 2010-2021: 262,000 tons
     
    #130 Lethe, May 11, 2019
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
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