vesicles
Colonel
Com'on guys! There is nothing weird going on with the PLA on security issues. Most likely, several high profile projects hit the low-activity phase at the same time. China has so many projects going on at the same time. So some thing like this will be bound to happen. In fact, similar "suspicious high security alert" things have happened before.
Increasing security measures in response to political climate does not make any sense. We should be certain that China had planned out all different scenarios, including all the possible responses by the US, before they started all the island-building in the SCS. They must have had all the analysts coming up with all different possible scenarios and how China should act accordingly. And one of the most likely and most predictable scenarios would be US becoming more assertive, in response to China's island building. Based on past behavior of the US, it would be completely inconceivable that the US would back down and stay quiet.
So the Chinese already knew how the US would act. We all know that the Chinese are very methodical. They plan, plan and plan before doing anything. We also know that the Chinese are obsessed with chess-like strategizing. Thus, just like in a tough chess game, Anticipating possible US military intervention, the Chinese should have tightened their security well before they began the island building.
If they did that before they began the island building (2011/12?), they would be able to hide everything. We would not know how the J-20 has progressed. We would not know about the J-15 and the J-16. We would have no clue of the J-31. That would have been much more effective.
Instead, they let people see all of that. Now? Even if they clamp down hard on everything, we can still predict the progress of all the major top-secret toys with relative accuracy. So a late clamp-down is now useless and achieves almost nothing.
This is not consistent with how the Chinese typically do things. If they wanted to clamp down, they would have done it much earlier. Doing it now makes them look like they had been caught shocked and unprepared by how the US is responding. That's almost impossible. Even a 6 year old would have predicted how the US would act in such scenarios.
Thus, my view is that it is simply a coincidence that a number of top profile toys happen to hit a low activity phase at the same time. It does happen often. Ever heard of a phenomenon called rogue wave? Ocean water all vibrate at distinct wavelength. Once in a while, they all sync together, which leads to a huge amplification of waves --> rogue wave.
Similar thing could be happening to several of China's fancy toys. They all have their own separate schedules and progresses. Once in a while, they sync and hit a similar phase all together. I still remember some forum members mentioned that China all of a sudden came up with all sorts of new battleships. It almost looked like that were intentionally doing that. I think that case might be another example of accidental syncing. The only difference would be that that was a peak activity phase and this time is a low activity phase.
Once again, a late clamp down does absolutely nothing, except making fans like us miserable. Also, most of the stuff that we complain about, like the J-20, J-31 etc, won't be deployed in the near future. So what would clamping down on them achieve anything in response to possible US military intervention in the SCS?
Increasing security measures in response to political climate does not make any sense. We should be certain that China had planned out all different scenarios, including all the possible responses by the US, before they started all the island-building in the SCS. They must have had all the analysts coming up with all different possible scenarios and how China should act accordingly. And one of the most likely and most predictable scenarios would be US becoming more assertive, in response to China's island building. Based on past behavior of the US, it would be completely inconceivable that the US would back down and stay quiet.
So the Chinese already knew how the US would act. We all know that the Chinese are very methodical. They plan, plan and plan before doing anything. We also know that the Chinese are obsessed with chess-like strategizing. Thus, just like in a tough chess game, Anticipating possible US military intervention, the Chinese should have tightened their security well before they began the island building.
If they did that before they began the island building (2011/12?), they would be able to hide everything. We would not know how the J-20 has progressed. We would not know about the J-15 and the J-16. We would have no clue of the J-31. That would have been much more effective.
Instead, they let people see all of that. Now? Even if they clamp down hard on everything, we can still predict the progress of all the major top-secret toys with relative accuracy. So a late clamp-down is now useless and achieves almost nothing.
This is not consistent with how the Chinese typically do things. If they wanted to clamp down, they would have done it much earlier. Doing it now makes them look like they had been caught shocked and unprepared by how the US is responding. That's almost impossible. Even a 6 year old would have predicted how the US would act in such scenarios.
Thus, my view is that it is simply a coincidence that a number of top profile toys happen to hit a low activity phase at the same time. It does happen often. Ever heard of a phenomenon called rogue wave? Ocean water all vibrate at distinct wavelength. Once in a while, they all sync together, which leads to a huge amplification of waves --> rogue wave.
Similar thing could be happening to several of China's fancy toys. They all have their own separate schedules and progresses. Once in a while, they sync and hit a similar phase all together. I still remember some forum members mentioned that China all of a sudden came up with all sorts of new battleships. It almost looked like that were intentionally doing that. I think that case might be another example of accidental syncing. The only difference would be that that was a peak activity phase and this time is a low activity phase.
Once again, a late clamp down does absolutely nothing, except making fans like us miserable. Also, most of the stuff that we complain about, like the J-20, J-31 etc, won't be deployed in the near future. So what would clamping down on them achieve anything in response to possible US military intervention in the SCS?
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