J-15 carrier-borne fighter thread

[vesicles]

We generally get fewer leaks out of CAC vs SAC, owing in part to how much more remote the latter’s airfields and facilities are from population clusters compared to the former.

I agree. The SAC facilities make it harder for people to get photos. However, if they are making progress on the J-31, we would have observed striking progress whenever we do get a peek at their facilities and the plane.

For instance, just a few days ago, someone made a comment that it’s shocking that the J-16’s are magically popping up like crazy.

Now, if a similar progress has been made on the J-31, we would have seen huge leaps in the J-31 whenever we do see the J-31 flying. And we do get new photos of the J-31 periodically. The unfortunate thing is that they are almost always the same. Mostly still the V1 and sometimes the V2.

Someone might say “well, you don’t know if the SAC might be making huge changes to the J-31 as we speak!” Well, let’s take a close look at this argument. When did the J-31 first fly? 2012? When did the V2 come out? 2015-2016? When was the last time when we got most recently updated photos and videos of the J-31 flying? A few weeks ago?

So it’s been 7 years since the first prototype flew. Even if they are working on some “possible” advanced new designs, it’s taken 7 long years and they still haven’t finished their supposed new design. The J-20 progressed much faster and was at a much more mature stage 7 years after its first prototype flew.

 

[latenlazy]

I agree. The SAC facilities make it harder for people to get photos. However, if they are making progress on the J-31, we would have observed striking progress whenever we do get a peek at their facilities and the plane.

For instance, just a few days ago, someone made a comment that it’s shocking that the J-16’s are magically popping up like crazy.

Now, if a similar progress has been made on the J-31, we would have seen huge leaps in the J-31 whenever we do see the J-31 flying. And we do get new photos of the J-31 periodically. The unfortunate thing is that they are almost always the same. Mostly still the V1 and sometimes the V2.

Someone might say “well, you don’t know if the SAC might be making huge changes to the J-31 as we speak!” Well, let’s take a close look at this argument. When did the J-31 first fly? 2012? When did the V2 come out? 2015-2016? When was the last time when we got most recently updated photos and videos of the J-31 flying? A few weeks ago?

So it’s been 7 years since the first prototype flow. Even if they are working on some “possible” advanced new designs, it’s taken 7 long years and they still haven’t finished their supposed new design. The J-20 progressed much faster and was at a much more mature stage 7 years after its first prototype flew.

I’ve said all this before, but I don’t think we have any good reason to think the J-31 has been picked up by any PLA service arm, but that doesn’t mean there are no reasons for its continued development. Until we get more details on what’s happening with the naval stealth fighter contest I think it’s simply too early to prejudge anything about what will or won’t happen with it wrt the navy and whether it is or isn’t adequate for the Navy’s planned carrier fleet.

 

[ougoah]

I just read this thread and the posts made in the last few days and it really echoes the sentiments expressed in the J-31 thread. J-15 taking off from CATOBAR carriers definitely means full fuel load and full weapons load. This is the future for PLAN air wing. They will probably supplement with dedicated AWACS, EW, and UAVs. This is enough of a challenge and probably better than Russian, Indian, and even French carrier groups even on a one to one basis. My personal bias is that I've little faith in stealth fighters preserving their significant advantages well into the coming decades. Caveat, China vs USA. Why compete against the Americans in their own game? China now has the tech and even one 5th gen fighter. That covers the development of technology base. We don't need to pour billions more into inducting another 5th gen be it navy or airforce.

 

[SinoSoldier]

You realize that your apple is an imaginary one? You are using a hypothetical scenario (at best a “possibility”) to refute my conclusion derived from fact-based observation? You know that you need evidence to support your assertion? You might as well tell me that the Chinese are collaborating with aliens to come up with a 12th gen fighter.

No one can predict the future. Anything is possible in the future. Attempting to do so without any actual evidence is called daydreaming. We can only make educated guesses based on the past. Based on what we have observed and comparing among various advanced programs, my conclusion is that the J-31 is at a clear disadvantage, as opposed to other new fighter designs like the J-20.

Now, is it possible that the Chinese are designing a carrier born fighter based on the J-31? It is a possibility, as Huitong has suggested. However, it is just a possibility, same as it is possible that the Chinese are working with aliens on a Death Star.

Is my conclusion accurate? I have no idea. The accuracy of my prediction depends heavily on how properly I have collected my data. Because of the small sample size and other subjective biases, my conclusion may be far from the truth. However, at least my conclusion is based on facts, however limited they might be, not some hypothetical possibility...

Imaginary or not, a hypothetical scenario would readily explain the lull we have seen in the FC-31 program. I'm not denying that a lack of funding in all aspects is out of the question, but for you to draw definitive conclusions on the limited "clues" made available to the public is no less of a shot in the dark.

At this juncture, we can neither say that the FC-31 has been given a green light nor that the entire program has been rejected by the PLAN/PLAAF. Unless, of course, we continue with the assumption that no pictures/video = no progress, in which the KJ-600, WS-20, J-15B, and H-20 projects should, by your theory, never have existed in the first place.

 

[SinoSoldier]

My personal bias is that I've little faith in stealth fighters preserving their significant advantages well into the coming decades.

What do you base your analysis on? What sorts of anti-VLO technologies have been studied and are actually in the process of being developed into a deployable asset? Do we know if these technologies will completely remove the advantages brought about by VLO design or will there be different levels of it?

Caveat, China vs USA. Why compete against the Americans in their own game? China now has the tech and even one 5th gen fighter. That covers the development of technology base. We don't need to pour billions more into inducting another 5th gen be it navy or airforce.

Because the Americans beat China in pretty much all other "games"?

 

[ougoah]

Imaginary or not, a hypothetical scenario would readily explain the lull we have seen in the FC-31 program. I'm not denying that a lack of funding in all aspects is out of the question, but for you to draw definitive conclusions on the limited "clues" made available to the public is no less of a shot in the dark.

At this juncture, we can neither say that the FC-31 has been given a green light nor that the entire program has been rejected by the PLAN/PLAAF. Unless, of course, we continue with the assumption that no pictures/video = no progress, in which the KJ-600, WS-20, J-15B, and H-20 projects should, by your theory, never have existed in the first place.

This is true. But can we honestly speculate that J-31 will not offer any extra capability to PLAN or PLAAF on top of J-20. The only exception being that PLAN needs a 5th gen fighter flying off carriers as soon as possible and J-20 cannot do that for whatever reason. So if we explore this further, J-31 will only be used by PLAN for its stealth. It would mostly be relegated to air superiority missions since it can't fit AShM internally. In regional waters, this may give PLAN more reach and tactical advantage and a force multiplier for J-15 and other platforms. Question is, will this be the strategy PLAN bets on for the next three or four decades with so many emerging technologies and the threat of competent US counter-stealth technologies and methods?

 

[ougoah]

What do you base your analysis on? What sorts of anti-VLO technologies have been studied and are actually in the process of being developed into a deployable asset? Do we know if these technologies will completely remove the advantages brought about by VLO design or will there be different levels of it?



Because the Americans beat China in pretty much all other "games"?

Well they are already testing decoys and cheap missiles to counter stuff like S-400 and this idea could be tailored to targeting stealth fighter effectiveness by draining the numbers of missiles used. There will be hundreds of well flown and experiences F-35s by the time J-31 comes on. Yes currently anti-VLO tech is pretty questionable but even promising stuff would be kept under wraps. It's certainly not impossible to do and there are many ways to exploit weaknesses.

 

[SinoSoldier]

This is true. But can we honestly speculate that J-31 will not offer any extra capability to PLAN or PLAAF on top of J-20. The only exception being that PLAN needs a 5th gen fighter flying off carriers as soon as possible and J-20 cannot do that for whatever reason. So if we explore this further, J-31 will only be used by PLAN for its stealth. It would mostly be relegated to air superiority missions since it can't fit AShM internally. In regional waters, this may give PLAN more reach and tactical advantage and a force multiplier for J-15 and other platforms. Question is, will this be the strategy PLAN bets on for the next three or four decades with so many emerging technologies and the threat of competent US counter-stealth technologies and methods?

Ok, I think we need to make a distinction between PLAAF and PLAN here, because they fundamentally operate in very different geographic environments and with different existing assets/weapons. I do not think the PLAAF has a use for the FC-31, and to have a twin-engined medium-sized airframe in its inventory seems quite out of place with its existing fleet. The PLAN, on the other hand, could make use of the FC-31 design for a future carrier-based fighter project.

Where did you get the notion that the FC-31 can't fit AShMs internally? The 2016 Zhuhai Airshow confirmed that it could mount four internal 500 kg class weapons (including supersonic ASMs); I'm certain that developing a compact JASSM-like weapon isn't outside the capabilities of CASIC or CASC.

Do we have an existing list of confirmed anti-VLO assets to be deployed in the future, or is this another repeat of the "tanks are obsolete because of ATGMs" fiasco?

 

[SinoSoldier]

Well they are already testing decoys and cheap missiles to counter stuff like S-400 and this idea could be tailored to targeting stealth fighter effectiveness by draining the numbers of missiles used. There will be hundreds of well flown and experiences F-35s by the time J-31 comes on. Yes currently anti-VLO tech is pretty questionable but even promising stuff would be kept under wraps. It's certainly not impossible to do and there are many ways to exploit weaknesses.

LOL what now? Decoys and anti-missile measures will affect every platform, not just VLO ones (the entire concept has little to do with "countering" stealth). If there are hundreds of F-35s by the times the FC-31 becomes online (a prediction I agree with), then how well do you think a couple of legacy J-15s will fare?

 

[ougoah]

I didn't now J-31 could fit AShM. That's my mistake if it can. I just assumed it's absolute max is 4 MRAAMs. After all its bay is shorter, shallower, and no wider than J-20's.