ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Today at 8:28 AM
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...
the article made a point, which is

"GEN. MCKENZIE: You can look at the map -- you can particularly at the Barzeh site and make your own conclusions."

(quoting Department of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Chief Spokesperson Dana W. White and Joint Staff Director Lt. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. in the Pentagon Briefing Room
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)

me? in the past, one 12" shell would deliver something like a quarter of GJ (gigajoule) of energy (kinetic plus denotation of TNT equivalent), and 76 of these would plow this hectare:
3a6beb1ad71b3225d8acae77914ec89e.jpg


a TLAM has slightly lower kinetic energy, but I think its blast is bigger (LOL of course I don't know what exactly is in the warhead), so no, I don't believe that compound was hit that many times
("Against the first target, the Barzeh Research and Development Center, which is located in the greater Damascus area, we employed 76 missiles; 57 of these were Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles, and 19 were joint air-to-surface standoff missiles, or JASSMs." to Department of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Chief Spokesperson Dana W. White and Joint Staff Director Lt. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. in the Pentagon Briefing Room
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)

just my 'reasonable doubt' here
plus there's the accuracy issue:

no 'near miss' there
02_barzah-research-and-development--center_15april2018_wv3_.jpg


but with 76 hits announced by the Pentagon, I would've liked to see at least one hole in the 'hood; why? (in addition to the statistics hahaha)

at the other site ('weapons storage close to Homs') my untrained eye sees spots which I put in the yellow ellipses below (the original picture comes from DigitalGlobe, accessed it through
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where you could see the view 'before' etc.):
19676693f2bff9a218d1046199bb8439.jpg

(you might blame the French/English for these LOL!)

my whole point is
If Something Sounds Too Good To Be True,
It Isn't

Well remember last year they hit runways. The Syrians and Russian that them back operational in a few days.
The Buildings targeted were destroyed with almost biblical intent. They did everything but salt the earth.
by the way what's your theory for an absence of craters anywhere in that compound?
9xW4YAl_YzHS-Nkw1o4n7RVkCtA5CP4pzL2UgQhJopp6o2ql0UvnCCNHyT9rNsD0uy8FBGhv_kH4HZeNJ0yOuRmF0PYgSi3ayVUhLtEVJBI
 
now I read
Syrian air defenses intercept missiles over two airbases
Xinhua| 2018-04-17 11:11:36
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Syrian air defenses intercepted several missiles targeting two airbases in Syria after midnight Tuesday, in the wake of a U.S.-British-French missile strike in the capital Damascus and in the central province of Homs last Saturday.

The latest attacks came in retaliation for the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government in Douma, a suburb outside of Damascus, on April 7.

Most of the six missiles, targeting the Shayrat airbase in Homs, were intercepted by the Syrian air defenses, said the War Media, the media wing of the Syrian army.

Three other missiles, targeting the Dumair airbase in the Dumair area in the eastern Qalamoun region north of Damascus, were all intercepted before reaching their targets, according to the report.

Pan Arab al-Mayadeen TV said the targeting of the Dumair airbase comes a day before a deal to be reached for the evacuation of rebels from that area.

Syrian state television aired images of missiles targeted Shayrat airbase being shot down over the areas of Homs. Yet it did not clarify who launched the strike.

ISRAEL LIKELY BEHIND ATTACK

There are speculations that Israel is more likely to be behind the overnight military attack, after the Pentagon denied carrying out operations on the aforementioned airbases, according to Syrian state news agency SANA.

The Syrian government forces told the Al-Masdar news portal that the airstrike on the Shayrat airbase could be fired from the Israeli territory.

There has been no comment from the Israeli military on the issue so far.

The Israeli warplanes fired missiles on the T-4 airbase in the eastern countryside of Homs on April 9, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

No country has yet claimed the attack after midnight. Yet the U.S. officials earlier said Washington wasn't planning another strike after the missile attack on Saturday.

The Shayrat airbase was hit by a U.S. missile strike in April 2017, over similar allegations of the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army in Idlib province in the same year.

INSPECTION TO ATTACK SITE TO BE ARRANGED

The Russian military said it would help protect international chemical weapons inspectors on their visit to Douma over the alleged chemical attack, according to Yuri Yevtushenko, head of the Russian Center for Peace and Reconciliation in Syria.

Eariler on Monday, the United States accused Russia of preventing international inspectors from entering the attack site. While calling for "an objective investigation," Moscow disavowed the accusation and blamed the delays on the U.S.-led missile strike on Syria on Saturday.
 

bruceb1959

Junior Member
Registered Member
Unless the smoke is hiding anything, its the large building in three blocks and few annexes.
So would it take one third of the missiles launched to achieve that damage? that would be what 35 missiles?
I would have thought that half a dozen precision strikes and the resultant fires would do the job very well.

Based on this it suggest a high interception rate was at least anticipated by NATO forces, which is why the otherwise massive overkill quantity of missiles were launched.

As to what happened, who knows for sure. It was widely reported before the strikes, that Russia had connected their S-400 systems into the Syrian National AD network and it seems most likely that the S-400's were supplying identification, tracking and maybe even targeting to the Syrian batteries. I agree with Wolfie that given AD were not targets and that Cruise Missiles are relatively simple to target, once found, so a high knock down rate is certainly credible. I also wonder how much jamming was also being done on Saturday morning.

All of which fascinating though it may be, is in the event, largely irrelevant, as it is now clear that this has been as much a pantomime as anything else and one that appears primarily to save face and allow Trump to withdraw US forces from Syria with the appearance of grace.

I recall also seeing online recently that the Syrian AD systems had been tied into the Russian AD network. If the shoot-down figures are correct , this seems to me to be the only rational reason for such a success rate.. that and the inetgration of Pantsir systems with the Syrian AD.
 

nicky

Junior Member
Russian military found Syrian Army in quite appalling state and the first step was re-train them, including AD.
Since then Russian military counsels are present at every unit from battalion level.
And who said that private volunteers are only present as rangers?
MoD RF clearly stated that A-50 AWACS was in the air at the time of the attack to control the situation with some fighter jets for protection.
 
no wonder Senators leave classified briefing on Trump's Syria policy 'very unnerved'
Updated 11:03 PM ET, Tue April 17, 2018
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Lawmakers emerged from a classified administration briefing expressing concern about administration policy on Syria and the legal justification for last week's military strikes against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
"I am very unnerved by what I'm hearing and seeing," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, who said the briefing on the strikes made him more worried, not less. The administration is "going down a dangerous path" with regards to Syria, he said, without offering details.
Washington, along with London and Paris, launched airstrikes in the wee hours of Syria's Saturday morning in response for an April 7 attack on the rebel stronghold of Douma that killed about 75 people, including children, and left another 500 in need of treatment for symptoms consistent with chemical weapons exposure.
The strike came just 10 days after President Donald Trump had said he wanted to get out of Syria,
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about administration policy.
"I want to get out," Trump said during an April 3 news conference. "I want to bring our troops back home. It's time."
But on April 13, when he announced the strikes, Trump said the US would be undertaking a sustained diplomatic, military and economic response to stop the use of chemical weapons, and officials said the US would remain focused on defeating ISIS.
Senators leaving Tuesday's briefing seemed to indicate that
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are going to win out, regardless of the consequences for US global influence, American national security interests or the fate of the region, where Iran is vying for larger influence and Russia has established itself as a power broker, edging out the US.
Democratic Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware left the meeting and told reporters, "The only thing worse than a bad plan on Syria is no plan on Syria, and the President and his administration have failed to deliver a coherent plan on the path forward."
"I think it's important for us to remain engaged in Syria and to pursue a diplomatic resolution," Coons said. "If we completely withdraw, our leverage in any diplomatic resolution or reconstruction or any hope for a post-Assad Syria goes away."
Sen. Bob Corker, the Tennessee Republican who has sparred with Trump over foreign policy issues, exited the briefing and told reporters, "I think the administration's plans are to complete the efforts against ISIS and (then) not be involved."
Corker went on to say that, "Syria is Russia and Iran's now. They will be determining the future. We may be at the table, but when you're just talking and have nothing to do with shaping what's happening on the ground, you're just talking."
Asked if he felt the administration should do more militarily to shape events on the ground, Corker said, "They're not going to. I understand it's not going to happen. It's just not going to happen. To do so would take a significant effort by our military and I just don't think that's where the American people are right now."
The administration briefed senators as the UN Security Council held its own meeting on the situation in Syria. The strikes on Douma have ratcheted up tensions between the US, its allies and Russia. When Moscow's ambassador accused the US of striking a sovereign country, Kelly Currie, the acting deputy representative of the US, shot back -- accusing Russia of distracting from the atrocities committed by the Assad regime.
While the US went after ISIS and "actually achieved lasting gains for the Syrian people, the Assad regime was busy bombarding civilians in places like Aleppo, Idlib and Eastern Ghouta," Currie said.
"The United States will not stop focusing on the ways to achieve that goal, no matter how many times our Russian colleagues convene these cynical thinly disguised diversions," Currie said.
Coons declined to offer details of the classified meeting, which was open to all senators. But House lawmakers emerging from their own all-members briefing in a secure facility in the Capitol building said administration officials focused on their legal justifications for launching the airstrikes, and for the targets.
There was little discussion about a broader strategy for addressing the Syrian regime, or additional military or diplomatic efforts, they said.
"We certainly did get additional insights into the targeting of the facilities, what we knew about it, what we know about the attack itself, what these facilities were used for, what actions if any took place between the time the President announced we were going to strike and when we did strike, so we got an additional granularity," said California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff.
Trump Administration officials briefing the lawmakers restated their argument that Article 2 of the Constitution, which makes the president commander of the armed forces. But many lawmakers feel the President needs congressional approval and used the hearing to argue for
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of Military Force.
Rep. John Garamendi, a California Republican, argued that Article 2 is too broad, and he was concerned it could be used for additional action in other regions, saying to reporters, "that justification allows the President to wage war anywhere, anytime, anyplace he might want to, by simply saying it's in the national security interests."
Defense Secretary James Mattis, at the Pentagon Tuesday to welcome the defense minister of Albania, said the US and its allies did "what we believed is right" to deter the use of chemical weapons.
"I hope this time the Assad regime got the message," Mattis said.
Washington and its allies say they have clear evidence showing Syria is responsible for the attack and they have blamed Russia for being complicit. Moscow, meanwhile, has said that the devastation in Douma was faked by foreign intelligence agencies looking for a rationale to attack Syria.
On Tuesday, Russian state media reported that Russian military had discovered a chemical laboratory and warehouse in Douma that they claimed belonged to "militants."
Russian and Syrian control of the site has raised concerns, and on Tuesday, the French foreign ministry said it is "very likely" that evidence could "disappear" from the site of the alleged attack as OPCW inspectors
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to the site.
"To date, Russia and Syria
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to the site of the attack even though the investigators arrived in Syria on April 14," the French foreign ministry said in a statement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denied that the Douma site had been tampered with, while a representative of Russia's military said on Monday that the OPCW inspectors will reach Douma on Wednesday.
 
59 minutes ago
no wonder Senators leave classified briefing on Trump's Syria policy 'very unnerved'
Updated 11:03 PM ET, Tue April 17, 2018
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wondering what the Senators heard at "a classified administration briefing" from let's operational point of view after Saturday at 8:29 PM
ba2ccea9c628e1883ae11bd7ece35991.jpg

'we're confident all our missiles reached their targets' ...:
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LOL even I noticed some smudges (in red below)
e788659665d19b0ad71ad88d110b0ae2.jpg

after Yesterday at 12:08 PM
...
at the other site ('weapons storage close to Homs') my untrained eye sees spots which I put in the yellow ellipses below (the original picture comes from DigitalGlobe, accessed it through
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

where you could see the view 'before' etc.):
19676693f2bff9a218d1046199bb8439.jpg

(you might blame the French/English for these LOL!)

my whole point is
If Something Sounds Too Good To Be True,
It Isn't


by the way what's your theory for an absence of craters anywhere in that compound?
9xW4YAl_YzHS-Nkw1o4n7RVkCtA5CP4pzL2UgQhJopp6o2ql0UvnCCNHyT9rNsD0uy8FBGhv_kH4HZeNJ0yOuRmF0PYgSi3ayVUhLtEVJBI
 
Last edited:
LOL now noticed kinda counter-strike:
How the U.S. positioned its warships to trick Russia ahead of Syrian strikes
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The guided-missile destroyers Donald Cook and Winston Churchill never fired a shot in Friday’s allied airstrikes against Syria, but as it turns out, they were key to the mission’s success.

A source familiar with White House war planning told
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that the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers were positioned in the Mediterranean to be an intentional ploy to distract Syrian and Russian forces and undermine any attempted counterattack.

When President Trump first threatened to
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, the Donald Cook was the only destroyer in the region. As talks of airstrikes intensified, many presumed it would be the vessel to carry out the strike.

But on Friday night, the Cook was silent.

The coalition launched
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against Syria, but zero came from the Cook or the Churchill.

To Syria’s surprise, many of the missiles came from the Red Sea. The cruiser
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fired 30 Tomahawk missiles, and the destroyer Laboon fired seven.

Other missiles came from the North Arabian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where the destroyer Higgins and the Virginia-class submarine
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were called into action, respectively.

The three-pronged attack successfully hit a trio of targets which the U.S. considered to be at the core of the Syrian chemical weapons program. Despite earlier threats, high-end Russian defense systems made no attempt to intercept the missiles.
 
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