ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

the rest of Analysis: The rationale behind Trump’s Syria missile threat
Updated 2018-04-13 22:56 GMT+8
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Is Saudi money behind Trump's Syria U-turn?

Meanwhile, there’s been a fair bit of speculation on the timing of Trump’s decision for a missile strike on Syria after he announced withdrawal of troops “very soon” on March 29.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman went on record at the time saying it wants American troops to stay “for at least the mid-term” saying a pullout would only help Iran. Trump had responded by saying Riyadh might have to foot the bill to keep US in Syria, The New Arab online news portal reported.

With Trump’s missile threat against Syria coming just days after
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, when Trump boastfully claimed how
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, many wondered if Riyadh and Washington have struck a deal on US military action.

Speculations have further risen after Mohammed announced that Riyadh will take part in any military action being planned by the US and its Western allies including France and the UK. “If our alliance with our partners requires it (Saudi military participation), we will be present,” Mohammed said at a news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, concluding his three-day visit to Paris, which saw the signing of deals worth 18 billion dollars.

The idea that Saudi Arabia is willing to foot the bill for the US-led military action in Syria is not new. As early as in September 2013, two years after the Syria crisis began, the then US Secretary of State John Kerry went on record during a Congressional hearing saying the Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have offered to pay for US military action aimed at removing Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government.

“With respect to Arab countries offering to bear costs and to assist, the answer is profoundly yes,” Kerry told the hearing, “They have. That offer is on the table.”

While this piece was being written, Trump appears to be on the verge of another U-turn. Amid reports suggesting the
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after Russia warned that the US move could trigger a war between the nuclear-armed rivals, Trump tweeted:

“Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”

Will this tweet be enough to draw back all the sides from the brink of a flashpoint? Only time will tell.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Expect news I just saw a salvo of tweets and posts claiming there were actions in Damascus.
IRGC-controlled Syrian militia declares jihad against US forces in Syria
BY AMIR TOUMAJ | April 13, 2018 | [email protected] | @AmirToumaj

Declaration of jihad against the US in Syria

A Syrian militia led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared jihad on April 6 against US and allied forces in Syria. Since 2017, the US has twice come into direct contact with the group. The IRGC is likely to boost its military support to the group as it explores avenues to drive the US out of Syria.

The Baqir Brigade (AKA Liwa al Baqir or Liwa al Imam al Baqir) published on its social media page a statement with the Baqqara Tribe, to which its members belong. The tribe claims descent from the fifth Shiite Imam, Muḥammad al Baqir, the brigade’s namesake. The group’s open declaration features a militia logo that is a replication of the rising hand and AK-47 in the official logo of the IRGC and militias under its control.

“Statement No. 1 (Al Hasakah-Al Jazirah Region)” started with the following Quranic verse: “So do not obey the disbelievers, and strive against them with the Quran a great striving” [Al Furqan, 52].

It declared “the onset of the military and jihadist activists against the American occupation and its allies in Syria” and vowed to “liberate every single inch of the precious homeland” from American and Turkish troops, urging Syrians to stay away from the sites and bases of “the coward American occupier.” The militia pledged to continue the path of resistance in line with the allegiance they gave to Syrian President Bashar al Assad, saying that they would “defend the unity of the Syrian Arab Republic and the Islamic nation.”

The militia’s suggestion of operating in Hasakah in al Jazira, deep into Syrian Kurdish territory in Deir Ezzor province in the northeast, is intended to indicate its reach as well as potential targets. In late March, the Baqir Brigade had released a photo claiming to show US forces embedded with US-backed “separatist” forces, or the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), inside Al Hasakah Central Prison to secure the landing of US helicopters. “For the Americans: Don’t think that al Assad’s men are unmindful of your presence,” the militia warned.



The Baqir Brigade has repeated its threats against the US in response to a potential strike against Assad following chemical weapons use in the Damascene suburb of Douma. “If you want it to be a war, let it be a war and you will see a holocaust that will befall your bases in Syria and Iraq at first,” the militia commander Al Hajj Baqir reportedly said this week.

The inclusion of Turkish forces in the statement is likely meant to boost support with Syrian Kurds rather than a signal of attacking Turkish troops, though that possibility should not be entirely dismissed. The Baqir Brigade’s members were the pro-Syrian regime fighters deployed to Afrin earlier to show support for Kurdish forces. While Tehran is unlikely to set its guns on Turkey, with which it and Russia are in a negotiations process, it has used the latest Turkish offensive into Afrin to improve relations with Syrian Kurds and try to peel them away from the US. It is clear, however, that the crux of the latest letter is directed toward the US.

The Baqir Brigade, based in Aleppo province, is part of the Local Defense Forces (LDF) network, which is distinct from the IRGC-trained National Defense Forces (NDF) and is believed to answer more directly to the Guard Corps than the Syrian regime.


Baqir Brigade leaders with Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani

The Baqir Brigade certainly advertises its affinity and close ties to the IRGC. It has acknowledged receiving training and equipment and declares Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as one of its “leaders.” The militia’s leaders have previously been photographed with Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The Baqir Brigade has also vowed to fight the Iran’s arch-rival Israel, as its operations commander al Hajj Hamza, AKA Abu al Abbas, declared in December 2017 during a visit to the Israeli border in southern Lebanon. “Let Israel know that we are on its borders, and the day will come when we break its borders,” the caption of the photo read.




Baqir Brigade commander in southern Lebanon


Baqir Brigade members in “holy mausoleum in the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Those are open advertisements of answering to the Islamic Republic. The militia would not have declared jihad against the US without the approval of the IRGC. Last month, prior to the declaration of jihad, the militia publicized that its “mujahidin” and members of the Baqarra tribe went to Iran at the “expense” of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to study at the Islamic Sharia College at Tehran University. In mid-March, the militia posted a photo showing its forces on an official visit to Iran.


Baqir Brigade members in Iran to study at “the expense” of Khamenei.

In February, the Baqir Brigade acknowledged fatalities during an assault in coordination with Russian Wagner private military contractors against US positions near Deir Ezzor city. The brigade also reported that two sons of Sheikh Nawwaf al Bashir, a prominent al Baqqara tribal leader, were killed in airstrikes by the US-led coalition and vowed vengeance.


Baqir Brigade forces in the vicinity of the US base at At Tanf, June 2017.

Last year, the Iranian-led militia came into contact with US forces in June 2017 as its members were trying to advance toward a US base by At Tanf, southern Syria. In a sign of defiance, the militia posted on the next day a photo showing its military operations commander al Hajj Hamza while visiting the group’s military positions after the US airstrikes.

The Baqir Brigade’s latest declaration comes as the Islamic State’s so-called caliphate has collapsed in tatters, though the group is far from finished. Now, the pro-Syrian regime and US-backed forces are poised to compete more. “We hope big steps will be taken in order to liberate this area [east of the Euphrates River] and expel the occupying Americans,” said Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s top foreign policy adviser, during an official visit to Syria yesterday. Velayati reiterated a policy that has been previously declared by the Supreme Leader’s office. Through the Baqir Brigade, which has vowed revenge for the death of the two sons of al Baqqara tribal leader, the IRGC can say that it supports indigenous Syrian resistance against US presence.

The IRGC knows well that it cannot directly confront US forces, as the February episode highlighted. The Guard Corps and its Lebanese branch, Hezbollah, however have years of experience in directing and fueling insurgencies and asymmetric warfare against conventionally-superior adversaries including the US and Israel. Observers should watch for Iranian-backed militia claims of attacks against US and US-backed forces in eastern Syria as well as those that bear Iranian signatures, such as explosively formed perpetrators (EFPs).
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President Trump announced it Joint operation US, UK, France.
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Terran, where is the evidence Syrian government was responsible for the chemical attack?
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

Terran, where is the evidence Syrian government was responsible for the chemical attack?
Where is the Evidence that proves he didn't?
And don't say half anyone with half a brain because everyone who says that only has half a brain themselves to believe that there POV is the only one.
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Everything else falls into He Said, She said and I dont Trust [Blank] because of [blank].
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs


Where is the Evidence that proves he didn't?
And don't say half anyone with half a brain because everyone who says that only has half a brain themselves to believe that there POV is the only one.
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Everything else falls into He Said, She said and I dont Trust [Blank] because of [blank].

I assume you live in the West? Whatever happened to the innocent till proven guilty principle? Is this another case of do what i say, not what i do? The burden of proof lies at the accuser

Hypocritical as usual
 
am wondering about Allies ORBAT; what I noticed was
  1. 1 hr 55 min ago
    At least one US Navy warship based in Red Sea was used in strike

    From CNN's Ryan Browne

    At least one US Navy warship based in the Red Sea participated in today’s strikes according to two US military officials.

    US B-1 bombers were also used in the strikes in Syria, according to two US defense officials.
    US
  2. a vid of French aircraft (recalled Mar 17, 2018 related to the French Navy
    I'll be putting here google translation of
    Syrie : première utilisation du MdCN ?
    vendredi 16 mars 2018
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    as I read it:" ...
    )
  3. nothing specific about the UK
anyone?

EDIT
this is interesting:
e28d07f7-6060-4c9e-a099-c59b0887ddda.jpeg

source is the CNN link I hastily posted as
Breaking & World News! III NO DISCUSSION!! 26 minutes ago

will drink some coffee now, and then visit Russian Internet
 
Last edited:
Today at 8:27 AM
the Kremlin didn't count yet (just "more than 100" cruise missiles and air-to-ground missiles:
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обновлено: 09:04 14.04.2018), and the bloggers are either sleeping or typing

will go to butcher's shop now
now the sauce is simmering ... I mean in my kitchen ... and here's TACC
April 14, 11:52 UTC+3
Syrian air defenses intercept 70% of US cruise missiles

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