ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Equation

Lieutenant General
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Because the white helmets have been caught out exaggerating or even staging and fabricating civilian casualties (often by rounding up and killing civilians themselves) far too many times in the past for most seasoned observers to keep falling for their cookie cutter propaganda tricks?

The next phase of the terrorist propaganda playbook involve chemical weapons attacks on militarily utterly worthless targets on such a small scale as to have absolutely zero affect other than provide a perfect pretext for western military intervention. So of course it makes perfect sense that only Assad would order such attacks.

The Saudis have killed far more civilians in single air strikes in Yemen before, not to mention the humanitarian catastrophe they are wilfulling inflicting upon the civilian population there.

The ‘world’ (read western governments) only care about civilian casualties when it suits and profirs them to care.

The kinds of people fighting in Syria won’t hesitate for a second to murder as many civilian women and children as they can find it they think sending perfectly composed ultra HD pictures of their corpses will help their cause.

By falling for their propaganda tricks, all that is done is create more incentive for them to maximise civilian casualties by any and all means necessary.

Please do not be naive in thinking Assad is the only monster involved in this butchery, or that he is even remotely the worst.
ALL this because NATO doesn't want to see Russia having a Naval and military bases in Syria from the beginning.:mad::(
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
ALL this because NATO doesn't want to see Russia having a Naval and military bases in Syria from the beginning.:mad::(

It goes far deeper than that my friend. They US-NATO wanted to cut off Russia completely from accessing the Mediterranean Sea. They did this by inciting, state-sponsored regime change in Ukraine.

The idea was that once there was a Pro-West government installed in Ukraine. That this Pro-West government would have null and void the lease of Sevastopol to the Russian Navy. Effectively throwing out Russian military presence in the Black Sea altogether.

Why Crimea is so important and was essential for US-NATO take such a big gamble (in which they failed miserably) was because, anyone with the basic knowledge of Naval Warfare in the Black Sea would know that the one who controls Crimea, commands the Black Sea.

The other reason why Ukraine needed to be flipped over to the US-NATO camp was because the former Soviet Union had invested heavily in most shipbuilding capabilities, in Ukraine. From the infrastructure to build Gas Turbine engine (industrial scale), to heavy displacement ship building. As the Black Sea is the only "Warm Water" the Soviet Union, now Russia have ever had.

So you can appreciate why Russia took swift action in taking back Crimea. Yes, you heard that correct, Crimea was NOT part of Ukraine, it was redrawn as part of Ukraine S.S.R (Soviet Socialist Republic) back in the day. Historically, and you can find a plethora of evidence to prove that Crimea has always been part of Russian territory.

And the reason for the West to go through all of this trouble, keep Russia cut off from the Black Sea, in order to keep Russia from accessing the Mediterranean Sea, and with it the Naval Base in Tartus, Syria. Is because US-NATO do not want Russia to challenge the West in the Middle East. As everyone has seen the fruits of Western labor, Iraq destroyed, Libya ruptured, Yemen in flames, Somalia scorched and Syria reduced to rubble.

It is a fact that had the Russian Federation not stepped in and provided the Syrian Government assistance. That the world would have witnessed (in its usual comatose state), Syria turn into another Libya, Iraq and Yemen.
 
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timepass

Brigadier
Syrian government ground forces attack Ghouta despite Russian truce plan...

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"Syrian government forces launched a ground assault on the edge of the rebel-held eastern Ghouta enclave on Wednesday, seeking to gain territory despite a Russian plan for five-hour daily ceasefires, a war monitor and sources on both sides said.

Hundreds of people have died in 11 days of bombing of the eastern Ghouta, a swathe of towns and farms outside Damascus that is the last major rebel-controlled area near the capital."

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Dizasta1

Senior Member
Shelling from E. Ghouta which hit Russian embassy in Syria ‘won’t be tolerated forever’

Moscow is not going to keep tolerating the daily shelling of Damascus by eastern Ghouta militants that recently hit the Russian embassy in Syria, President Vladimir Putin said after meeting Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The current hotspot of the Syrian crisis – Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus – is being used by numerous terrorist groups as a base, from which they launch attacks on the capital and other areas in the country, Putin said, responding to a Russian media journalist’s question on the situation there. Damascus is being shelled up to 80 times a day from the besieged area.

Putin particularly stressed that the Russian embassy in Damascus has come under mortar fire. The building has been shelled and suffered damage on numerous occasions during the Syrian conflict. On February 6, the Russian trade mission in the Syrian capital was also targeted. Luckily, the building was unoccupied, but civilians were injured in the attack.

“It’s well-known – at least, we know this well in Russia – that shells land even on the territory of the Russian embassy and trade mission. Are we going to tolerate this forever?” the president wondered.

Kurz urged Russia to influence the Syrian government and the situation in the country in order to facilitate a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

“I appeal to Russia, as it has influence there [in Syria] and has a responsibility. Being a superpower, it can influence the regime [of President Bashar Assad], the situation in Syria. Therefore, we hope that everyone will return to the negotiating table and swiftly stop this war,” Kurz said.

“The situation is difficult [in Syria], the prospects of the peaceful settlement depend on the warring parties – on their internal desire to achieve this settlement and preserve the territorial integrity and unity of their country,” Putin said, adding that “the influence of regional countries and key international players is very important.”

According to the Russian leader, Moscow will “strive to establish political dialogue” and ensure the beginning of the work on the new Syrian constitution. Russia will also work to turn the de-escalation zones in Syria into “areas of cooperation between Damascus and the opposition,” he added.

The Ukrainian issue was also discussed during the talks, with Putin reiterating that Moscow wouldn’t object to the deployment of international peacekeepers in the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The President also said that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will connect Germany and Russia via the Baltic Sea, is “an absolutely depoliticized” project. He said the pipeline isn’t viewed as “an alternative to the Ukrainian transit route,” adding that Moscow is ready to continue co-operation with Kiev in this area. According to Kurz, Austria has “a positive approach to the [Nord Stream 2] project as well as Germany and other states,” but a lot of details have yet to be worked out.

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Monday at 2:30 PM
... Mr. Putin ordered 'humanitarian breaks' in Eastern Ghouta fights daily between 9 am and 2 pm, effective since tomorrow (EDIT February 27):
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now UN Hopes to Enter Syria's Eastern Ghouta in 'Next Few Days'
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The United Nations said Thursday it hoped aid convoys could head into Syria's besieged rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta within days, after the Damascus government appeared to have finally provided authorization.

"We may now be able to go to Eastern Ghouta in the next few days," said Jan Egeland, head of the UN's humanitarian taskforce for Syria.

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He told reporters in Geneva that he had received word during a taskforce meeting on Thursday "that we may have the first facilitation letter, permit from the government, to go to (the main Eastern Ghouta town of) Douma in a very long time."

But he stressed that the five-hour daily "humanitarian pause" in fighting declared by Russia for the enclave was not enough to allow aid deliveries or ensure orderly medical evacuations.

"Five hours is not enough," he insisted, underscoring that aid deliveries take time and that an estimated 1,000 civilians also desperately needed medical evacuation.

More than 40 trucks loaded with much needed aid have so far been unable to reach the 400,000 people living in the battered enclave.

Egeland's comments came as civilians in Eastern Ghouta continued to shun Russia's offer to quit the area, and as rebels and Moscow blamed each other for the humanitarian deadlock.

A five-hour daily "pause" announced by Moscow on Monday has led to a reduction in the bombardment that killed hundreds in only a few days and sparked global outrage last month.

But the humanitarian corridor offered by Russia for civilians to flee has remained ostensibly empty for a third day, with distrust running high on both sides.

Avoid Aleppo repeat
The Russian declaration fell far short of a full 30-day ceasefire voted for by the United Nations Security Council last Saturday, which has yet to be implemented.

Egeland voiced disappointment that the countries who unanimously
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had not been able to ensure its implementation.

He stressed that the catastrophe unfolding in Eastern Ghouta "is no tsunami."

"It is not a natural disaster, it is man-made from A-Z, and I think the sponsors of the armed groups can do more to hold them back," he said.

The UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura meanwhile said the UN would "not give up in asking for the full implementation of the resolution 2401."

"We will continue asking until we are red in the face, blue in the face, for both sides… to stop shelling each others' areas, and for convoys to be allowed" in, he told reporters in Geneva.

He said the UN was determined not to see a repeat of what happened in Syria's second city of Aleppo in 2016, when Russia and the Syrian regime also deployed a "humanitarian pause" as they looked to force out rebels.

"We cannot see a copycat of Aleppo taking place," De Mistura said.
 
according to DefenseOne In the Competition over Syria’s Reconstruction, China Is the Likely Winner
Beijing sees a double opportunity in rebuilding the wartorn country: to extend its new Silk Road and expand its economic and political influence westward.

President Xi Jinping’s efforts to build a latter-day Silk Road have hit a roadblock: Syria’s seven-year civil war, which obstructs the crossroads to Eurasia, Africa, and the Middle East. So Beijing is vying to take the lead in rebuilding the war-torn country, even before the conflict has ceased.

In this, Xi is pushing against an open door. The Syrian government is
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— in part to ensure its post-war sway over the battered country — but it needs international help with the estimated
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price tag. As things stand, reconstruction will get little aid from the countries of the “Friends of Syria” coalition—notably the United States, Canada, and Britain—which have frozen
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in pledged funding until a political transition “
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” is on track. In the U.S., the proposed “
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” would effectively prohibit financial assistance for reconstruction in areas under the control of the Syrian government.

This leaves the field open for non-Western investors, and indeed, last August’s Damascus Fair — the first held since war broke out in 2011 — attracted Chinese, Russian, and Iranian investors and businesses to explore projects and investment opportunities. The latter two countries are the Assad government’s largest supporters — Russia has spent nearly
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on the war, while estimates of Iranian support run from $6 billion to $35 billion —but this very expenditure limits their ability to invest in reconstruction anytime soon.

With competition thus limited, China is poised to win substantial contracts and to expand its economic influence westward.

Beijing’s relatively impartial role in the conflict gives it a propitious opportunity to dominate reconstruction while maintaining a foot in negotiations over the political process. Since the beginning of the conflict, China has consistently
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Security Council resolutions targeting Assad, insisting that Syria must shape its own political future. For this support—and,
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, military assistance—the Assad government has openly welcomed Chinese investment and trade.

Over the past year, Chinese-Syrian negotiations over trade and investment expanded from early diplomatic exchanges to commitments of nearly $2 billion in reconstruction contracts. China has become Syria’s largest trade partner, snapping up
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. In April, a Chinese delegation of investors led by Qin Yong of the Chinese Arab Exchange Association visited Homs and Damascus to
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with senior ministers and leaders—the Investment department in the Prime Minister’s office, governor of Homs, President of the Syrian Central Bank, and the ministers of public works, economy and trade, and communications and technology. Their first visit stimulated conversations with potential Syrian partners, enabled Chinese investors to scout opportunities, and spawned two follow-on expeditions. These delegations paved the way for July’s “
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,” hosted by the Syrian Embassy in Beijing and the Chinese-Arab Exchange Association. The event, which sought to foster 150 enterprises for a joint Syria industrial zone, drew about 1,000 Chinese investment and development firms. “Only China can play a leading role in helping Syria realize its reconstruction, ” Syria’s ambassador to Beijing, Imad Moustapha,
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Chinese investors. Two months later, he
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that Chinese businesses and companies would receive priority in the reconstruction.

What’s in it for China?
Syria is a geostrategic asset to China, rather than an economic one. Its resources, natural gas, and oil, are dwarfed by those of its regional neighbors in the Gulf, Iran, and Iraq, in whom China has already invested
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. But Syria sits at the crossroads of branches of China’s Silk Road initiative, and provides the most direct land route to China’s energy and resource investments in the Gulf and Africa. Because of these past and potential investments, Beijing also has an economic interest in stabilizing Syria and the region — and possibly in military and counter-terrorism partnerships with Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow.

But Beijing’s interests in tamping down terrorism is not just economic. Syria’s conflicted northwest region provides safe haven for some
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who are fighting alongside radical groups — and who may cause further instability in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province. China may launch reconstruction efforts in northwest Syria to shrink the sanctuary available to these groups. However, this will be challenging since the Syrian government is responsible for a significant proportion of the destruction and neglect that produced these communities.

China believe Assad and his backers in Russian and Iran are the best partners for accomplishing its strategic priorities in Syria: fighting terrorism and
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or Islamist government from rising to power. China is drawing itself into an extensive East-West power struggle—Russia and Iran against the United States and Europe—for political, economic, and military influence in Syria and the broader Middle East. The West’s insistence on a political transition that does not include Assad and fears of growing Iranian influence will result in an extended military presence (and
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) north of the Euphrates to counter Russian, Syrian, and Iranian forces. China’s grand entrance to Syria involvement would give Assad the advantage of developing territory under his control more quickly while the periphery is left in ruins. The United States and the anti-Assad coalition would likely be responsible for developing the remaining areas, many of which were recaptured from the so-called Islamic State.

China’s engagement in Syria is expanding an already messy proxy war for control of post-conflict Syria. While China maintains that it acts impartially in Syria, their investment in rebuilding Syria only bolsters the Assad government and heightens international competition over Syria’s future. Such a move could result in the de-facto partition of Syria and return Syria to its pre-war unevenly- developed status—a rich, powerful Damascus and a poor, weak periphery.

China and the United States could take steps to prevent Syria from sliding backwards economically and preventing Syria from unbalanced development. First, China and the United States can work together to pressure state actors in Syria and their partners to bring the opposition and the government to the table. Russia’s attempts to solve Syria diplomatically via the Astana Process have not produced a meaningful path toward a political transition. Both China and the U.S. can leverage reconstruction assistance as a tool for jumpstarting talks between both parties. This would remove Russian autonomy over the peace process. Second, China and the United States can convene multitrack dialogues on development in Syria with various stakeholders to ensure reconstruction is consistent across the country.

China could be the hope for rebuilding Syria. But with Assad in power, the chance of renewed violence is just below the surface. Until a political settlement is reached, Syria remains a battle ground for regional dominance with China, Russia, Iran, the United States, Turkey, and the Gulf all fighting for a chunk. But China’s assistance could tip the scale toward Assad.
source:
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Wednesday at 11:37 AM
Sunday at 8:17 PM
and here's that pro-Government source again:
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while
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doesn't confirm the Government gains, so let's wait and see
and right now
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and
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more or less agree (Government advancing in southeastern part of Eastern Ghouta Pocket):
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DXYGpiLW0AEjOg_.jpg
 
according to DefenseOne In the Competition over Syria’s Reconstruction, China Is the Likely Winner
source:
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Non Story. There is no competition over Syria's reconstruction, Most of the foreign sponsored players are more interested in competing over Syria's destruction.
 
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Feb 24, 2018
Feb 10, 2018
and two weeks later, added in red, completely schematically (I hope previous lines from the above map are visible):
  1. in northeast, Turks connected their gains with the area around
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    and threaten
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  2. in northwest, Turks merged two their previously gained areas and threaten
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  3. in southwest, Turks from the recently extended taken area threaten
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Afrin1.jpg
as for #1 from the above post, during last week Turks very slowly advanced around the eastern bank of
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as for #2, sometime last week Kurds left
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as for #3, Turks are reportedly attacking
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now:
beec90a664600815f69c94ef7e041501.jpg


in short, looks like Turks work on increasing 'cordon sanitaire'
 
Russia’s Favorite Syrian Warlord
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according to DefenseOne
Early on the morning of February 18, Syrian regime forces gathered on a field on the edge of eastern Ghouta, a rebel-held region near Damascus. The sky had just cleared after a weekend of torrential rain that had grounded Russian and Syrian regime warplanes conducting airstrikes on the area. Soon, a stout, bearded man began to speak. Many of the men gathered held up their cellphones to film him as he delivered a
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to the rebels in eastern Ghouta: They would “see hell’s flames” if they mounted any resistance to his forces. “You will find no one to help you and if you cry for help, you will be succored with water as hot as melting metal,” Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan warned them. “At your service my master the Tiger!” shouted one of the men in the crowd, using the intimidating nom de guerre he has acquired over the years. “If you’re not with God then you’re with the devil. Be on the side of God so that God will be with you,” Hassan said.

Through Syria’s civil war, Hassan, a member of the minority Alawite sect like Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, has become something of a celebrity. In the lead-up to Russia’s intervention in the Syrian war in the fall of 2015, Hassan was believed to have been fatally injured in battle. But he re-emerged, transformed into a regime hero with a growing fan base and legions of admirers on social media. (Some speculated that the real Tiger was dead and that this man was an imposter drafted by the regime to boost morale after the major defeats it suffered before Russia came to the
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.)

Unlike the more staid Assad, the flamboyant 48-year-old Hassan has often
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of his efforts to exterminate regime enemies. This has endeared him to loyalists—and, it seems, to Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia. As he delivered his sermon of fire and fury that day on the edge of Ghouta, next to him stood four mysterious-looking soldiers dressed in full combat gear and masks. They appeared to be part of a personal security detail provided by the Russians.

True to Hassan’s words, Syrian government forces and their Russian backers unleashed hell on eastern Ghouta shortly after he spoke. Spokespeople for the Russian military in Syria disseminated a stream of
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via official social media accounts identifying Hassan, commander of the so-called “Tiger Forces,” as the leader of the land troops closing in on the area. The messages said that Russia was backing Hassan and his men with airstrikes and Russian-supplied T-90 tanks, BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers (considered to be among the deadliest in the world) and Tochka ballistic missiles. “We will provide the necessary air support to the forces of Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan … We have real confidence in their ability to accomplish the mission,” Alexander Ivanov, the spokesman for Russian forces headquartered at the Hmeimim airbase in western Syrian, wrote on the base’s official
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. Later, a pro-Syrian regime website also reported that several Russian army officers were on the ground
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with Hassan in a command center in eastern Ghouta.

Since the Russian-backed campaign to retake eastern Ghouta began on February 18, it has
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at least 600 civilians, of whom at least 100 were children. Several thousand people have been wounded. Last weekend, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution calling for a
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across Syria. The ceasefire, negotiated on Moscow’s terms, excluded groups that Putin and Assad regarded as terrorists—anyone who has taken up arms to fight the regime. On Monday, Putin ordered a daily five-hour “humanitarian pause” in eastern Ghouta rather than an outright 30-day halt to fighting.

But Russia’s contribution to the destruction in eastern Ghouta has extended beyond providing overwhelming
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and dictating the terms of surrender. The relentless assault has further revealed Russia’s instrumental role in supporting and promoting Hassan, one of Syria’s most notorious warlords.

On several occasions, the Russian military has acknowledged training and equipping what it has called “detachments” operating under Hassan’s command. These groups, like the Tiger Forces and the 4th and 5th Volunteer Assault Corps, are effectively paramilitary groups
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to regime forces. There are also
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that Russia pays the salaries of these Syrian militia-like formations. Still, Russia has pointed to its support for Hassan and his forces to make two claims: That the Russian army and its local partners defeated the Islamic State in Syria, and that Russian forces, unlike the U.S. military and others, are working with Syria’s legitimate government troops rather than militias or mercenaries.

“Units [commanded by] General Suheil al-Hassan accomplished the most important missions in main battles including [the] liberation of Kuweires Military Airbase, Palmyra, Aleppo, Hama, Deir Ezzour, Mayadin and the Euphrates Valley,” General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff of Russia’s armed forces,
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last November. “Certainly, all the actions were held under support of the Russian aircraft and other hardware. The ISIS main forces have been defeated.” Of course, this telling left out the instrumental role played in these battles by the tens of thousands of Shiite militiamen under the
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of Assad’s allies Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Long before Hassan became Putin’s favored Syrian commander, Syrian and international human rights groups linked him to some of the Assad regime’s worst atrocities. At the start of the peaceful anti-regime protests in 2011, Hassan led special operations for the dreaded Air Force Intelligence Directorate. In Damascus, he and his men embedded with Syrian forces to ensure they carried out orders to fire upon and kill protesters, according to witness
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compiled by Human Rights Watch. Soldiers that disobeyed were shot dead on the spot. Not long after the anti-government demonstrations began, Hassan also oversaw the often deadly torture of protestors. He and his unit were connected to one of the bloodiest massacres against protesters in the southern province of Daraa at the end of April 2011, which resulted in the killing of almost 100 people, according to Human Rights Watch.

As the protests gave way to armed sectarian conflict in late 2011, Hassan was transferred to Hama Air Base in central Syria. Several of those who fought alongside him from 2012 to 2014 told me that as defections from the Syrian army mounted, he partnered with a ragtag force composed of loyalist units in the army and Alawite militias. One Syrian army general with him at the time said Hassan was responsible for at least one of the
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committed in 2012 in Hama against villages accused of harboring rebels and army defectors. “In Treimseh, Suheil and I just surrounded them and slaughtered about 250,” Brigadier General Jamal Younes, commander of the 555th Airborne Regiment of the Syrian army’s Fourth Division, told me in 2014, referring to one village they targeted. Hassan’s scorched-earth methods spread to neighboring Idlib and Aleppo provinces.

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