ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Today at 8:10 AM
Yesterday at 9:06 PM
anti-Government offensive is in progress (by the way Government has been under attack in several other areas as well) and basically I'm waiting for new map(s) to appear ...
just noticed

in "B" above, Khattab area, reportedly Government lost the base which is marked:
1Z6Kc.jpg

previously I figured the defensive perimeter of Hama was set in like arc (marked above) around Arzeh - Qomhana - Mount Zayn - Mount Kafraa (fire control of the areas in between)
and in the morning I heard, but didn't post, about what's now confirmed which is Government lost Khattab:
BTWAq.jpg


and I guess soon we (OK me :) may hear about the 'arc' from the above post, as reportedly anti-Government forces got to the hill I now put in the blue ellipse:
doful.jpg
 
Yesterday at 9:06 PM
I spent some time figuring out north-to-Hama area in the past:
Oct 1, 2016

... the latest was Oct 29, 2016

and now I read Government lost today what's in map right above spelled Souran and Ma'ardas; I'll consider updating this
and it's major; now "Cassad"
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said according to yet unconfirmed news Government had lost
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this evening (?!) ... two fresh maps (unconnected sources):
kHePUMV.jpg

(it's
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)

C7ibLEYUwAAneXd.jpg

(it's
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)
 
how you doing
Equation
thanks for visiting
ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)
:)

Today at 8:10 AM
...
1Z6Kc.jpg

previously I figured the defensive perimeter of Hama was set in like arc (marked above) around Arzeh - Qomhana - Mount Zayn - Mount Kafraa (fire control of the areas in between)
and now I found the map of that 'arc' (in the blog by "Cassad" I quoted right above):
C7iwiL0XQAA0KeL.jpg:large

(OK OK in the morning I recalled just a part of the 'arc'), anyway the problem of Government right now is it completely lost the initiative, so less defended areas are falling quickly (mainly to the northwest from Hama)
 
... "Cassad"
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said according to yet unconfirmed news Government had lost
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this evening (?!) ...
... and I made a mistake, I should've said Maardes (not Mahardah, which is a place about ten miles to the west from Maardes); anyway Maardes indeed fell (according to a pro-Government Twitter account
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), while Mahardah remains to be Government stronghold

I tried to guess the current line (shown in red in the map below; until this week: in yellow, all completely approximate of course): to the west it reportedly approaches the place which I haven't heard of yet:
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now I looked around, as for me it's still hard to believe the target of anti-Government forces would be Hama itself ... OK I'm not a strategist :) so just two points related to the map below:
  1. to the south, today Rebels took it out of Ar-Rastan Pocket and cut Homs - Salamiyah road;
  2. to the east, Salamiyah - Itrya (- Khanaser - and ultimately Aleppo) road is still either cut by ISIL or clogged
PEoZO.jpg

I'll wait now
 

flyzies

Junior Member
It seems the Syrian government is going through ground-hog day.

The problem is (still) not enough man power. We see the SAA's ongoing major offensives on two fronts (Palmyra & Eastern Aleppo) is taking up majority of the resources, so elsewhere on a very long frontline its' defences are minimally manned.

Second issue is that "rebel" offensives in Hama and East Gouta are clearly synchronised, in order to out maximum pressure on the government, who up until now is having a string of successes against ISIS.
 
Yesterday at 9:26 PM
...
C7iwiL0XQAA0KeL.jpg:large

(OK OK in the morning I recalled just a part of the 'arc'), anyway the problem of Government right now is it completely lost the initiative, so less defended areas are falling quickly (mainly to the northwest from Hama)
I went over numerous sources now, but won't quote any (the main reason is not the possibility of fanbois making up stuff :) the main reason is it's my lunch break, so I need to finish within several minutes); if you don't believe it, just skip it

QxgYa.jpg

if you decided to look, then from left to right in the map:
  1. (number is in red above) Government may get encircled in Mahardah;
  2. (number is in blue above) Government lost Maarzaf and Majdal yesterday, and I don't know (the ugly question mark in blue most to the left) how close the current line is to Asilah;
  3. (number is in blue above) Government lost Khattab and Arzeh yesterday, and I don't know the current lines around those places (two ugly question marks in blue);
  4. (number is in red above) Government is under attack in Qomhana, the part of the 'arc' (it's the inner perimeter of the defense of Hama town ... you may look at the map I quote above in this post; I put the 'arc' schematically as the red dots, and I know they don't go where they should which would be to 'Hama Airbase' more to the south);
  5. (number is in blue above) Government lost Kawkab today, but reportedly is counterattacking in that area; south to Maardas, which Goverment lost yesterday in the evening, I put yet another ugly question mark in blue, as I don't know how close anti-Government forces got to the two mountains (Mount Zayn is not marked in the above map, while Mount Kafraa is)
let's wait and see
 
Last edited:

delft

Brigadier
It is likely that this is an ultimate offensive by the terrorists. Ambassador Bhadrakumar wrote a post on his blog mostly about US politics from which I quote:
A good friend of mine who watches Syria and Iraq through binoculars 24 x 7, wrote to me a couple of days ago that Trump is doing some incredible things out there in the neighborhood where she lives. Let me succinctly paraphrase her assessment:
  • Trump has in fact prioritized the fight against terrorism. He is doing this quietly… The CIA has completely turned off the arms spigot to rebels in Syria and the US is bombing Al Qaeda and its allied groups now – something that Obama avoided (and tried to stop Russia/Syria/Iran from doing.) Equally, Trump is bombing the Al-Qaeda in Yemen too. And in Iraq, Trump is standing by while the Iran-trained Hashd ash-Shabi is annihilating ISIS in western Mosul and cutting off their route to Syria. Obama, on the contrary, had refused to let the Hashd fight in many of these battles. Trump now has not only given the go-ahead, but we have now seen the Iraqi Air Force participate in anti-ISIS bombing raids into Syria. Simply put, if the Obama administration’s policies only had led to the rise of the ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria, Trump is actually fighting them and, importantly, he is allowing US’ regional foes – Iran and Iran-supported militia groups, in particular – to fight them unimpeded.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
This is disturbing IF true. Than that explains a lot of things happening in the West so far in regards to terrorism and how ISIS started to aim at China.o_O

In 1997, a U.S. Department of Defense report stated, “the data show a strong correlation between U.S. involvement abroad and an increase in terrorist attacks against the U.S.” Truth is, the only way America can win the “War On Terror” is if it stops giving terrorists the motivation and the resources to attack America. Terrorism is the symptom; American imperialism in the Middle East is the cancer. Put simply, the War on Terror is terrorism; only, it is conducted on a much larger scale by people with jets and missiles.

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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Despite pressure around Damascus (which seems to be now contained) and around Hama (which is now being stopped and reversed), The big news of the day must be the SAA taking the town on Deir Hafer in East Aleppo, which they took without needing to storm, after they launched a lighting flanking move south and West that successfully encircled the town.
It seems that ISIS legged it before the trap was fully set.

The capture of Deir Hafer is big news!
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