ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Discussion in 'World Armed Forces' started by Jeff Head, Jun 4, 2014.

  1. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    Seems that the 40 day deluge of Russian bombs is definitely affecting positive change for Assad Regime Coalition Forces (ARCF). In the past week, this conflict has become extremely dynamic, with the preponderance of energy initiated by ARCF.
     
  2. Jeff Head
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    Jeff Head General
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    Well, I have not read of any allegation of "large scale" Iranian involvement from the the major media.

    Only that Iran is helping...and the definitely are.

    That's not to say that there eren't such allegations...just that I have not seen them and do not believe they are very wide spread...at least not among most US citizens.

    Agreed.

    As I said, I have not seen reports of this.

    But they definitely do report when an Iranian General is killed.

    I believe most of the possible disconnect has to do with a mistaken coupling on some US sources of Iranian command structure to US command structure in such instances.

    Clearly, however, they are not similar and do not operate the same.

    Well, I would not be surprised to learn that to some extent, Iran is already doing this.

    I would not be surprised to find that these Iranian Generals do have an Iranian security detail with them, albeit in small numbers, and would not be surprised to learn that amongst those with the Generals are one or two lower grade officers who are leading the security detail, and also learning a lot from the experience.

    I believe this is the type of thing TE may have been inferring in his "embed" comment.
     
  3. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    This is an edited repost; moderators, please delete the original, post #2182, thanks.
    On Tuesday, Nov 3,


    On Wednesday, Nov 4, at 11:35 AM

    Conversely, yesterday, I learned of another vital, strategic, objective that is central to the region, one that is equally, if not more urgent than regaining the Hama to Aleppo highway network, and which might be the main motivation of the southwest Aleppo offensive. This objective is the Abu al-Duhur Airbase.


    (PNG Image, 1497 × 1497 pixels).png


    As the maps illustrate, the Abu al-Duhur Airbase is situated on the southern Idlib/Aleppo Provinces' borders, and only a few km from where Hama Province's border meets these two (and, within the circle I superimposed the map of my initial analysis).

    The significance of Abu al-Duhur Airbase can be interpreted from these two sources:
    Siege of Abu al-Duhur Airbase
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Abu_al-Duhur_Airbase
    and
    Syria Developing: Rebels Capture Regime’s Last Airbase in Idlib Province
    By Scott Lucas September 9, 2015 11:49
    http://eaworldview.com/2015/09/syri...st-of-regimes-last-airbase-in-idlib-province/

    I'm posting the full text of the news article, below, with the one image that I think conveys the significance of this objective.



    As I have, before, I've situated the combat radius of the Su-25 about Abu al-Duhur Airbase.


    staticmap.png

    Consider the tactical implications thereof.
     
    #2193 janjak desalin, Nov 10, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
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  4. nicky
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    nicky Junior Member

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    daily briefs russian defense ministry
    english:
    http://eng.syria.mil.ru/

    russian
    http://syria.mil.ru/

    "November 3
    Today at 11:00 a.m. (MSK), joint training was held between the crews of the Russian and American Air Force on actions in case of dangerous proximity of aircraft.
    In the course of the training, issues of warning, organization of interaction and information exchange between the staffs of the operational groups and control centres of the Russian Air Force at the Hmeymim airbase and the US Strategic Air Operations Center in Qatar as well as the mutual informing of dangerous military activities in the air space of Syria were practiced.
    Crews of the aircraft of the Russian Air Force and the international coalition performed an approach at the minimum distance of 3 nautical miles, established a contact at the frequency defined beforehand and exchanged messages concerning the flight parameters of their aircraft in the English and Russian languages.
    After the aircraft had returned to the bases, the control centres of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Hmeymim in Syria and the U.S. Air Force in Qatar held joint review through the established direct communication channel.
    Joint work on providing flight safety is organized with Israel."

    planes maneuvers simulation against the map at 2:35

     
    #2194 nicky, Nov 10, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
  5. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    and, btw, i'm promoting myself from the tactical level of analysis b305_hdr.jpg to the strategic/logistical level of analysis star.png . i've never conducted (near) real-time strategic analysis before. it's fun.
     
  6. dtulsa
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    dtulsa Junior Member

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    I have read in one of the online defense magazines that Iran has around 4000 personal in Syria at present and their advising and assisting with tactics etc. Just wondering whether the loss of seinior officer's is affecting their ranks
     
  7. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    International Military Review Syria Iraq Battlespace, Nov 10, 2015

     
    #2197 janjak desalin, Nov 10, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
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  8. SampanViking
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    SampanViking The Capitalist
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    Its a bit like Idi Amin awarding himself medals though;)

    Ok, they have Kuweries , so what do they do with it and where do they go from here?

    At the moment, I see it as An Airbase, A Fire Base and of course a true Regional Command Centre.
    Surely the next priority will be to put a wide controlled territory around the base to secure it.
    Once achieved, I still see the Flanking movement to across the North and East of Aleppo, to ultimately swing around the prepared defences and completely surround the city by taking on the prepared rebel defences from the rear.

    Overall, both South and East, I think things will start moving very quickly on the ground. Even with several years, you can only prepare so much fixed defence, even in depth. The combined effects of Russian bombings of hard places, C&C, Ammo and Fuel dumps must be close of the tipping point where the rebels are being winkled out of all the local ones and are they running in the open or with much less effective battlefield fortifications.
     
  9. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    the boys and girls over at
    Institute for the Study of War
    /ISWhttp://www.understandingwar.org/
    sure won't like this!

    [​IMG]

    from:
    http://southfront.org/u-s-experts-rely-on-militants-counter-offensive-in-syria/
    Anybody know who the guy in the pic is?
     
    #2199 janjak desalin, Nov 10, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
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  10. janjak desalin
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    janjak desalin Junior Member

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    This was supposed to be a reply to SampanViking!

    I was hoping someone would appreciate the pomposity, although I abhor medals (and dress uniforms).
    at least it's not a gold star!
    My same thought. I wanted to run a poll of options, but don't see that as an option on any menu.
    Actually, I see the encirclement commencing from the west. This cuts eastern Aleppo of from the critical supply route of highway M5. They could attempt a double encirclement; ambitious!
    Also, I really do think that the, centrally situated, Abu al-Duhur Airbase will be a priority objective.
    Yes, a dynamic environment, it is!
    Do you expect an Ar Raqqa offensive, soon? I dont.
    I'd prefer to see a relief of the SAAF contingent at Deir Ez Zor, first, much like Kuweires.
     
    #2200 janjak desalin, Nov 10, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2015
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