ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

[janjak desalin]

Kuweires is a done deal!!!

Seems that the 40 day deluge of Russian bombs is definitely affecting positive change for Assad Regime Coalition Forces (ARCF). In the past week, this conflict has become extremely dynamic, with the preponderance of energy initiated by ARCF.

 

[Jeff Head]

The high number of high ranking IRGC officers killed in Syrian is less down to how deeply the IRGC is embedded with the Assad forces and more down to the kind of people they are sending in.

Contrary to the impression often given in the western media, there is actually no concrete evidence that I have seen which suggests large scale IRGC combat troops operating in Syria.

Well, I have not read of any allegation of "large scale" Iranian involvement from the the major media.

Only that Iran is helping...and the definitely are.

That's not to say that there eren't such allegations...just that I have not seen them and do not believe they are very wide spread...at least not among most US citizens.

The people Iran sends in are usually "advisors", who they feel need to be of a certain rank or above. These "advisors" typically operate as tacticians and even field commanders for Assad's forces, so are often on the front lines observing and/or directing units.

Agreed.

The western media loves to focus on dead high ranking Iranian commanders because it gives the impression of both deep and large scale Iranian .

As I said, I have not seen reports of this.

But they definitely do report when an Iranian General is killed.

I believe most of the possible disconnect has to do with a mistaken coupling on some US sources of Iranian command structure to US command structure in such instances.

Clearly, however, they are not similar and do not operate the same.

I would make sure that all senior IRGC commanders in Syria not only had a decent close protection detail of totally loyal IRGC troops, but also a few promising junior officers to effectively apprentice with these field commanders.

That way, not only do you keep your valuable field commanders safer, you are also training up the next generation of field commanders in the crucible of war to make them even better commanders when their time comes to lead.

Well, I would not be surprised to learn that to some extent, Iran is already doing this.

I would not be surprised to find that these Iranian Generals do have an Iranian security detail with them, albeit in small numbers, and would not be surprised to learn that amongst those with the Generals are one or two lower grade officers who are leading the security detail, and also learning a lot from the experience.

I believe this is the type of thing TE may have been inferring in his "embed" comment.

 

[janjak desalin]

This is an edited repost; moderators, please delete the original, post #2182, thanks.
​

On Tuesday, Nov 3,

that, soon, in the next strategic phase, the region in which the Aleppo-Hama-Idlib Governorates' borders meet will be the center of offensive action for regime coalition forces.

My logic is that, as the critical, strategic, stretch of main highway, (M5), is centered in Idlib Governorate, itself the center of FSA coalition forces concentration and access to international commerce (read Turkey), and is, therefore, most heavily defended, the battle for this objective would best be initiated subsequent to the concentration of as great a force as is possible. Conversely, the critical, strategic, stretches of the Hama to Aleppo highway network that FSA coalition forces control are at the eastern boundary of their territory, in the region in which the Aleppo-Hama-Idlib Governorates' borders meet. They are defended well only from the west, are vulnerable to the north, south and east, and are under attack, presently, from the north and east. Consequently, a strategy focused on regaining full control of the Hama to Aleppo highway network is the most viable option for maximizing efficiency (speed/fuel efficiency/bulk) in supplying operations with the objectives of either taking or investing Aleppo city and regaining control of the Aleppo Governorate.

On Wednesday, Nov 4, at 11:35 AM

Maps to support my strategic analysis/predictions for regime offensive operations:

Conversely, yesterday, I learned of another vital, strategic, objective that is central to the region, one that is equally, if not more urgent than regaining the Hama to Aleppo highway network, and which might be the main motivation of the southwest Aleppo offensive. This objective is the Abu al-Duhur Airbase.




As the maps illustrate, the Abu al-Duhur Airbase is situated on the southern Idlib/Aleppo Provinces' borders, and only a few km from where Hama Province's border meets these two (and, within the circle I superimposed the map of my initial analysis).

The significance of Abu al-Duhur Airbase can be interpreted from these two sources:
Siege of Abu al-Duhur Airbase

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and
Syria Developing: Rebels Capture Regime’s Last Airbase in Idlib Province
By Scott Lucas September 9, 2015 11:49

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I'm posting the full text of the news article, below, with the one image that I think conveys the significance of this objective.

Syria Developing: Rebels Capture Regime’s Last Airbase in Idlib Province
By Scott Lucas September 9, 2015 11:49
Report from the battlefield:
Fighters inside Abu Duhur:



The Jaish al-Fateh rebel coalition and the Islamist faction Jabhat al-Nusra have captured the regime’s last airbase in Idlib Province in northwest Syria.

Battles were reported inside the Abu Duhur base on Monday, as rebels renewed an offensive around the long-surrounded complex. The attack was started with vehicle-borne bombs trying to weaken the base’s defenders — rebels put the number at 300, while pro-regime media said 600 to 700.

By last night, the rebels had moved into most of Abu Duhur. This morning pro-regime accounts finally acknowledged the loss, even though State news agency SANA still insists, “The army forces defending Abu al-Duhur Military Airport repelled terrorists from the so-called “Jaish al-Fateh” who infiltrated into the surroundings.”

[On Wednesday afternoon, SANA posted a note of defeat, “Abu al-Dohour Airport guarding members evacuated their positions in the Airport to center in other points after fierce battles with terrorist organizations where the guarding members showed great bravery and inflicted heavy losses upon the terrorists for more than two years.”]

The pro-regime outlets say the Syrian Army and militia withdrew, but pro-opposition activists claim that many of the defenders, including a Brigadier General, have been taken prisoner.

Jabhat al-Nusra said on Wednesday afternoon that 100 Syrian troops had been killed and 60 captured.

The regime’s defenses were hindered this week because of a large sandstorm preventing missions by the Syrian Air Force.

There has been fighting near Abu Duhur since 2012. The base has long been disused because of the rebel occupation of much of Idlib, reinforced this spring by the capture of almost all of the province.

Jaish al-Fateh and Jabhat al-Nusra stepped up attacks on the base in late August, briefly entering the complex.

As I have, before, I've situated the combat radius of the Su-25 about Abu al-Duhur Airbase.



Consider the tactical implications thereof.

 

[nicky]

daily briefs russian defense ministry
english:

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russian

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"November 3
Today at 11:00 a.m. (MSK), joint training was held between the crews of the Russian and American Air Force on actions in case of dangerous proximity of aircraft.
In the course of the training, issues of warning, organization of interaction and information exchange between the staffs of the operational groups and control centres of the Russian Air Force at the Hmeymim airbase and the US Strategic Air Operations Center in Qatar as well as the mutual informing of dangerous military activities in the air space of Syria were practiced.
Crews of the aircraft of the Russian Air Force and the international coalition performed an approach at the minimum distance of 3 nautical miles, established a contact at the frequency defined beforehand and exchanged messages concerning the flight parameters of their aircraft in the English and Russian languages.
After the aircraft had returned to the bases, the control centres of the Russian Aerospace Forces at Hmeymim in Syria and the U.S. Air Force in Qatar held joint review through the established direct communication channel.
Joint work on providing flight safety is organized with Israel."

planes maneuvers simulation against the map at 2:35

 

[janjak desalin]

and, btw, i'm promoting myself from the tactical level of analysis to the strategic/logistical level of analysis . i've never conducted (near) real-time strategic analysis before. it's fun.

 

[dtulsa]

Well, I have not read of any allegation of "large scale" Iranian involvement from the the major media.

Only that Iran is helping...and the definitely are.

That's not to say that there eren't such allegations...just that I have not seen them and do not believe they are very wide spread...at least not among most US citizens.

Agreed.

As I said, I have not seen reports of this.

But they definitely do report when an Iranian General is killed.

I believe most of the possible disconnect has to do with a mistaken coupling on some US sources of Iranian command structure to US command structure in such instances.

Clearly, however, they are not similar and do not operate the same.

Well, I would not be surprised to learn that to some extent, Iran is already doing this.

I would not be surprised to find that these Iranian Generals do have an Iranian security detail with them, albeit in small numbers, and would not be surprised to learn that amongst those with the Generals are one or two lower grade officers who are leading the security detail, and also learning a lot from the experience.

I believe this is the type of thing TE may have been inferring in his "embed" comment.

I have read in one of the online defense magazines that Iran has around 4000 personal in Syria at present and their advising and assisting with tactics etc. Just wondering whether the loss of seinior officer's is affecting their ranks

 

[janjak desalin]

International Military Review Syria Iraq Battlespace, Nov 10, 2015

​

 

[SampanViking]

and, btw, i'm promoting myself from the tactical level of analysis View attachment 21563 to the strategic/logistical level of analysis View attachment 21558. i've never conducted (near) real-time strategic analysis before. it's fun.

Its a bit like Idi Amin awarding himself medals though

Ok, they have Kuweries , so what do they do with it and where do they go from here?

At the moment, I see it as An Airbase, A Fire Base and of course a true Regional Command Centre.
Surely the next priority will be to put a wide controlled territory around the base to secure it.
Once achieved, I still see the Flanking movement to across the North and East of Aleppo, to ultimately swing around the prepared defences and completely surround the city by taking on the prepared rebel defences from the rear.

Overall, both South and East, I think things will start moving very quickly on the ground. Even with several years, you can only prepare so much fixed defence, even in depth. The combined effects of Russian bombings of hard places, C&C, Ammo and Fuel dumps must be close of the tipping point where the rebels are being winkled out of all the local ones and are they running in the open or with much less effective battlefield fortifications.

 

[janjak desalin]

the boys and girls over at

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/ISW

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sure won't like this!

from:

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U.S. Experts Rely On Militants Counter-Offensive in Syria​

U.S. experts are looking forward to the results of the recently launched militant counter-offensive in the Hama province. It is being conducted by the al Nusra-linked militant groups, which have already captured some territory including the town of Marik. Thus, the Syrian government was pushed to concentrate its forces in the city of Hama to repel the terrorists’ advances.

In the light of these setbacks, experts argue that the Syrian forces are unable to change the situation on the ground despite Russian and Iranian support. Furthermore, they make far-reaching prognoses that the contemporary Russian and Iranian involvement can’t guarantee any serious success of the Syrian forces on the ground.

Therefore, a strategic forecast has been made that suggests that Russia and Iran will need to increase their military presence in the region in the nearest future. Separately, the US think tanks and media are disseminating reports that Russia is considering the issue to send own artillery attack units to the pro-government forces. Reportedly, Russia is forced to take this step in order to create the conditions needed to continue the Syrian forces’ advance, which will strengthen the diplomatic position for further negotiations.

In fact this skeptic media campaign only pursues one goal: to convince the Obama administration that its policies in the Middle East are right. According to them, Russia will only be able to change the military situation in Syria by involving own troops on the ground and therefore risking being drawn into a potentially disastrous conflict as in Afghanistan (1979 to 1989).

However, the situation in

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. Despite the terrorists’ counter attacks and even locally limited success, the Syrian forces supported by Russian warplanes have been gaining momentum. The existence of the air support and the advantage in firepower play a crucial role in the Syrian government’s perspective in this conflict. The alternative anti-ISIS coalition has found an effective strategy and has enough advantage over the terrorists to continue with its military operations.

Even if Russia and Iran don’t expand their military efforts in Syria, time is working against the terrorists. Should the Syrian ground offensive slow down then the main task of the Russian coalition should be to swiftly implement a balanced and provident military strategy that reacts to these new changes on the ground. But one can certainly be sure that the Russian strategists know what they are doing.

Anybody know who the guy in the pic is?

 

[janjak desalin]

This was supposed to be a reply to SampanViking!

Its a bit like Idi Amin awarding himself medals though

I was hoping someone would appreciate the pomposity, although I abhor medals (and dress uniforms).
at least it's not a gold star!

Ok, they have Kuweries, so what do they do with it and where do they go from here?

My same thought. I wanted to run a poll of options, but don't see that as an option on any menu.

At the moment, I see it as An Airbase, A Fire Base and of course a true Regional Command Centre.
Surely the next priority will be to put a wide controlled territory around the base to secure it.
Once achieved, I still see the Flanking movement to across the North and East of Aleppo, to ultimately swing around the prepared defences and completely surround the city by taking on the prepared rebel defences from the rear.

Actually, I see the encirclement commencing from the west. This cuts eastern Aleppo of from the critical supply route of highway M5. They could attempt a double encirclement; ambitious!
Also, I really do think that the, centrally situated, Abu al-Duhur Airbase will be a priority objective.

Overall, both South and East, I think things will start moving very quickly on the ground. Even with several years, you can only prepare so much fixed defence, even in depth. The combined effects of Russian bombings of hard places, C&C, Ammo and Fuel dumps must be close of the tipping point where the rebels are being winkled out of all the local ones and are they running in the open or with much less effective battlefield fortifications.

Yes, a dynamic environment, it is!
Do you expect an Ar Raqqa offensive, soon? I dont.
I'd prefer to see a relief of the SAAF contingent at Deir Ez Zor, first, much like Kuweires.