India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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One more article regarding the border standoff.

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Sikkim Stand-Off: China and India Collide in the Himalayas
Indian hegemonism is on the march

by Justin Raimondo Posted on July 07, 2017
India’s ultra-nationalist government under Prime Minister Nahendra Modi is engaged in an aggressive face-off with China that could end in a large-scale military conflict. Although the strip of land, called Donglang, that is at the center of the dispute has long been acknowledged as Chinese territory under an 1890 agreement between China and Great Britain, the Indian authorities are trying to block a road-building project initiated by the Chinese in the region. In June, Indian troops crossed the border into Donglang and confronted the Chinese, and the stand-off continues. New Delhi claims that the road, if constructed, would give the Chinese the ability to cut off India from its northeastern provinces, where various insurgencies against the central government have been ongoing for years.

Legally, the Chinese are in the right: the 1890 agreement clearly gives the Chinese sovereignty in this area. Furthermore, previous Indian governments have pledged to uphold this agreement. But the ultra-nationalist Modi, who rose to power on the strength of a “Hindutva” movement that invokes a vision of Indian supremacy, is playing to his domestic constituency: Indian troops have been rushed to the border, and Modi – perhaps emboldened by his recent talks with President Donald Trump – shows no signs of backing down.

The 1890 treaty was primarily about the fate of Sikkim, an ancient Himalayan kingdom lodged between China, India, and Indian-dominated Bhutan, directly adjacent to Donglang: ruled by a hereditary monarch, Sikkim was ceded to the British while the Donglang region was given to China, then ruled by the Qing dynasty. Although close to India, Sikkim was an independent country until 1975, when India annexed it by force. After Indian troops moved in, an “election” was held in which over 97 percent of the 59 percent of the population eligible to vote chose union with India. Altogether, a very dicey situation: indeed, in 1978 then Indian Prime Minster Moraji Desair “apologized” for the annexation, while maintaining that it is “irreversible.”

The Indians are trying to muddy the dispute by hiding behind Bhutan’s claim to Donglang: but Bhutan is yet another case where Indian imperialism has nearly nullified an ancient state’s sovereignty. Until 2007, when Bhutan’s absolute monarchy was transformed into a parliamentary system, India exercised a de facto protectorate over the country, controlling its foreign affairs. When the Bhutanese sought to establish closer relations with China, the Indians retaliated during the 2013 elections by cutting off subsidized energy exports: the result was the defeat of then Prime Minister Jigme Thinley. India accounts for 75 percent of Bhutan’s imports and is its biggest trading partner.

India has used the same bullying tactics against Nepal, another independent Himalayan country on the long Sino-Indian border. In 2016, after Nepal adopted a new constitution that favored native Nepalese over Indian immigrants, India initiated an informal blockade, cutting off the mountainous country from vital supplies. China moved quickly into the breach, rushing in oil, food, and other necessities. Chinese investment in Nepal now surpasses that of India.

If we step back, and look at the larger picture, what is happening is another episode in the ongoing encirclement of China by the US and its allies in the region. During a recent meeting between Modi and Trump, the latter affirmed a closer military relationship with New Delhi, and the Washington Post reported that the State Department “approved the $365 million sale of a C-17 military transport aircraft to India. The administration is also set to offer a $2 billion sale of U.S.-made unarmed drones to help in surveillance of the Indian Ocean.”

The movement that propelled Modi to power in New Delhi is no ordinary nationalist movement: it is a militant and militaristic cult with a mass following. As I wrote way back in 2002, warning of the danger represented by this trend:

“The rise of Hindu fundamentalism as a political force in India catapulted the Bharatiya Janata Party to power and sought to expunge the Gandhian pacifism of the old militantly secular Congress Party tradition, replacing it with a new martial spirit. The idea of Hindutva, which energizes the Hindu activists, sees India not only as a Hindu state, but as a militantly revanchist force in the region, a nation determined to recapture its old empire. As I explained in a previous column devoted to this fascinating subject, the Hindutva movement has created a whole mythology based on the idea of ethnic Indians as the first and only pure Aryans: the swastika is an ancient Hindu symbol, and has been revived by what I call the Hindu-fascist forces in India. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological center of Hindutva, has a provision in its constitution that its leader must be a blue-eyed Sarasvat Brahmin.

“I hesitate to use the term ‘neo-Nazi’ to describe a contemporary political movement, as it has become almost a ritualistic term of abuse. However, in this case, the label fits precisely.”

India, I would remind you, is a member of the nuclear club. We have to ask ourselves: would the Hindu fanatics now in charge in New Delhi hesitate to use nukes in a war with China? I’m frankly afraid to answer my own question.

As for the Chinese, they beat the Indians once before when ongoing border disputes escalated into violence – remember the Sino-Indian war of 1962? – and I have little doubt that they have the capacity to do so again. Indeed, they are evoking this memory to remind the Indians that they’re in for another beating if they don’t turn down the heat.

However, India didn’t have nukes until 1974, when it tested its first nuclear device. China tested its first nuclear weapons in 1964. This time around, in the event a large-scale Sino-Indian conflict breaks out, who plays the nuclear card first? With China’s military advantage, it is New Delhi that will have the incentive to put its nuclear ace on the table.

The world is revved up about North Korea’s nuclear testing, and the recent launching of an ICBM prototype, but that danger pales before what’s happening in the Himalayas.

The US must stop encouraging the Indians in their confrontation with China – especially if we’re expecting Beijing to intervene on our behalf with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. That arms deal with New Delhi should be nullified until and unless the Indians withdraw their forces from Donglang. And, finally, the state of Sikkim, unlawfully annexed by India, must be restored to full independence: India has no more claim to Donglang than it does to Sikkim proper. Contrary to former Prime Minister Desai, the annexation is indeed reversible – because injustice cannot be allowed to stand on the strength of brazen coercion.
 

Yodello

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am still amazed that some Indian 'Intellectuals' still think that China is bluffing. ..! New Delhi seems to have so many people with such views. The gravity of the situation is becoming apparent, but I believe the Indian Government and media are blatantly lying to the Indian Citizens. Majority of the comments that i read about the situation, at least 80 percent of Indians are so filled with a false confidence and dangerous hyper-nationalism. There seems to be absolutely no sense of reality, but a sense of false superiority. For ordinary Indian citizens who have traveled to China, and seen China first-hand, the truth is starkly clear, like Night and Day. It is almost unbelievable that most Indian citizens are this ill-informed and even willing to beat the Drums of War so loudly. How did they reach this state of false-superiority, false pride and Jingoistic nationalism? It's not funny anymore, but it's truly an eye-opener about how poorly educated or misinformed most Indian citizens are. For a Nation counting on the 'Population Dividend' to spur its future growth, I am in no doubt that an ill-informed and unskilled populace will be a 'Population Curse' in the coming decades.
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Obviously, China won't allow the Indian troops to stay there indefinitely. My guess is that China has its own deadline in mind, 3 months, 6 months or whatever. If I have to guess, it would be when you see China all of a sudden intensifies its diplomatic efforts. You know they are about to do something. It's their way of showing to the world that they have tried everything possible and they have no choice but to use force.

When that deadline comes, china will inform the UN of its intention. My guess is that China has already informed the UN what they intend to do after the deadline. And China will keep the UN informed until the end so that China can have legal documentation of everything that they have done.

And on the deadline, China will most likely send in PLA/PAP spec ops to gather all the Indian troops for deportation or detainment. I'm sure various PLA/PAP spec ops units are at this very moment practicing the mission. When they finally do it, it will be overwhelming, with fighter planes above to maintain air superiority, many attack choppers for close air support and spec ops on the ground. If the Indians still keep their 40 people there, the Chinese will most likely send it a lot more, maybe hundreds. It will be so overwhelming that no shots will need to be fired. In fact, that would be the main goal: no shots fired and no injuries or casualties.

Once the ground is clear, china will go to negotiation table with the Indians. At that point, china will have all the advantages in hand.

I don't think China needs to use force for Indian troops to be removed.

There are still a lot more options available.
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
if you guys look in youtube there are videos uploaded by people driving in highways near the Sino-Indian border and they record clips of rigs pulling tanks, artillery and IFV's heading to the border areas. it's quite a sight to watch one rig hauling one tank and there were very long lines of rigs. there is definitely a build up of the PLA. the audio i keep hearing is they are coming from the ''west''. i just can't understand what the hell Modi is thinking. there is just no way India can come on top in this one. China and India have managed to NOT fire a single bullet at each other for decades, it's just insane to start an armed conflict like this.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
if you guys look in youtube there are videos uploaded by people driving in highways near the Sino-Indian border and they record clips of rigs pulling tanks, artillery and IFV's heading to the border areas. it's quite a sight to watch one rig hauling one tank and there were very long lines of rigs. there is definitely a build up of the PLA. the audio i keep hearing is they are coming from the ''west''. i just can't understand what the hell Modi is thinking. there is just no way India can come on top in this one. China and India have managed to NOT fire a single bullet at each other for decades, it's just insane to start an armed conflict like this.

Yes. But I would also add, what was Bhutan thinking when all this kicked off?

We can see Bhutan *** itself because of the current situation.

If China and India get into a conflict, Bhutan is going to get crushed as they are in the middle.

Remember that territory under dispute is between China and Bhutan.
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
Yes. But I would also add, what was Bhutan thinking when all this kicked off?

We can see Bhutan *** itself because of the current situation.

If China and India get into a conflict, Bhutan is going to get crushed as they are in the middle.

Remember that territory under dispute is between China and Bhutan.

you didn't know that Bhutan is totally controlled by India when it comes to foreign and defense affairs? they are so small and weak they didn't do anything because they can do nothing. Bhutan is forbidden to establish diplomatic relations with ANY of the 5 UN security council countries by India! Bhutan is so small it can't even be considered a ''pawn'' in this gong show!
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
you didn't know that Bhutan is totally controlled by India when it comes to foreign and defense affairs? they are so small and weak they didn't do anything because they can do nothing. Bhutan is forbidden to establish diplomatic relations with ANY of the 5 UN security council countries by India! Bhutan is so small it can't even be considered a ''pawn'' in this gong show!
That's sad. If Bhutan wants a master to lead it around, it should at least have a real power be its liege. I wonder if China can capitalize on this somehow and wrest Bhutan away from India... It'd be much better for Bhutan! Finally they can be lead by one of the big three instead of a third rate wannabe power that feels its growth is entitled to everyone else's help LOL
 
I am still amazed that some Indian 'Intellectuals' still think that China is bluffing. ..! New Delhi seems to have so many people with such views. The gravity of the situation is becoming apparent, but I believe the Indian Government and media are blatantly lying to the Indian Citizens. Majority of the comments that i read about the situation, at least 80 percent of Indians are so filled with a false confidence and dangerous hyper-nationalism. There seems to be absolutely no sense of reality, but a sense of false superiority. For ordinary Indian citizens who have traveled to China, and seen China first-hand, the truth is starkly clear, like Night and Day. It is almost unbelievable that most Indian citizens are this ill-informed and even willing to beat the Drums of War so loudly. How did they reach this state of false-superiority, false pride and Jingoistic nationalism? It's not funny anymore, but it's truly an eye-opener about how poorly educated or misinformed most Indian citizens are. For a Nation counting on the 'Population Dividend' to spur its future growth, I am in no doubt that an ill-informed and unskilled populace will be a 'Population Curse' in the coming decades.
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To be fair most people everywhere don't have a clue about international relations, military affairs, or history, and form their opinions based on reports by local and a few mainly Western multinational corporate media which mainly toe their own respective political lines, whatever their own government says, and hearsay based on the aforementioned.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Ominous sign according to Vincent some Chinese company has started evacuating their staff in some cases to 50% level
No more official news press or announcement. But some media still release Editorial like this below. Not sure what is China daily affiliated with
According to Chinese military spokes person Bhutan acknowledge Doklam is chinese territory

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Beijing: In a stunning – but unsubstantiated – claim, a senior Chinese official said today (August 8) that Bhutan has acknowledged that the Doklam area where the Indian and Chinese troops are engaged in a stand-off does not belong to it.

China’s top diplomat on the boundary issue, Wang Wenli, told a visiting Indian media delegation that Bhutan has conveyed to Beijing through the diplomatic channels that the area of the stand-off is not its territory.

New Delhi should come to its senses while it has time
China Daily | Updated: 2017-08-09 08:28
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As the standoff in Donglang between Chinese and Indian border troops enters its seventh week, the window for a peaceful solution is closing.

The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun, and the clock is ticking away the time to what seems to be an inevitable conclusion.

But it doesn't have to be so. Beijing has time and again sent the message that to avoid conflict all India needs to do is withdraw all its troops from an area that based on historical treaties, historically expressed agreements and long-exercised control both have long agreed is Chinese territory.

The Ministry of Defense has warned India not to harbor any illusions and underestimate the resolve of the People's Liberation Army to defend China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. There is a "bottom line" to the restraint shown by China to India's trespass, as a ministry spokesman said.

Anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear will have got the message. Yet New Delhi refuses to come to its senses and pull its troops back to its own side of the border.

Different from the previous standoffs that happened at parts of the border contested by both countries, the military deployment by India this time, which even in its own words is on foreign soil - India says Donglang is territory disputed by China and Bhutan - has sabotaged long-standing agreements and understandings the two sides have worked hard to build over the years.

India's justifications for this - its own security concerns and its support for Bhutan - do not stand up to scrutiny, as made clear by the position paper released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, and do not excuse its illegal act.

India's audacity in challenging China's sovereignty may come from its own sense of inferiority and insecurity in the face of China's rapid rise to prominence in the region, but betting on Beijing backing away from a fight because of its desire for a peaceful neighborhood is a risk, as it ignores the fact that the foundation for that is countries respecting China's territorial integrity.

India's trespassing is changing the long and legally established status quo in the area and is thus an act that China has no option but to resist.

Yet being at loggerheads serves neither side any good, and a violent clash is still avoidable, even at this late stage.

He who stirs up trouble should end it, as a Chinese proverb goes. India should withdraw its troops while the clock is still ticking. It will only have itself to blame if its stubborn refusal to heed the voice of reason leads to consequences it regrets.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Army trains on the Qinghai-Tibet Railway
Look like the new light tank ZTQ? coming none too soon 105 mm gun more than enough to bust T72
From Pak DEF Cirr posting
qt-1-jpg.417173


qt-2-jpg.417174


Another trainload of 16As heading for where you know :D:D

hq-16a-png.417175


Now we know why they developed this tank quoting strategy page

The tank has an advanced fire-control system and a 105-mm main gun, which is able to fire shells and guided missiles, and it features a powerful combination of frontal armor on the hull and turret. The missile capability will enable the vehicle to strike helicopters, one of the major threats to tanks on a battlefield. The tank has a powerful combination of frontal armor of the hull and the turret, partly borrowed from the main tank type 99.

The tank has been developed by China North Industries Group Corp, popularly abbreviated as Norinco, the country’s biggest developer and maker of land armaments, to serve the People’s Liberation Army in mountainous terrain. However, it is also expected to be exported to other nations, according to Kanwa Defense Review, the Canada-based online publication of defense affairs and weapon technology.

"The new type of tank, which I think is the only light tank being developed in the world, will substantially strengthen the PLA’s combat capability in elevated, mountainous regions," said a military expert with close links to Norinco who refused to be named told China Daily.

"It will replace the old Type 62 tanks, and it is more convenient to transport compared to the much heavier Type-96 and Type-99 main battle tanks because of its light weight and small size," he added China developed its Type 62 light tank in the 1960s, and it was used by its armed forces in southern regions until 2013 when all of them were retired.

This is possibly the only model in modern world of a serially manufactured non-floating light tank, which is designed to perform the role of a main battle tank in areas of complex terrain conditions. The new tank is supposed to replace the old Chinese non-floating type 62 light tanks, which were not complicated and cheap tanks having a weak armor and weapons. The new Chinese light tank, in contrast, is of a very complex and original design. For example, its chassis is of a completely original design that is not found in other models of Chinese combat vehicles. It has a variable clearance and probably is quite complicated and expensive. In general, cost of this combat vehicle may well be comparable with the cost of the full-fledged main battle tank. Substantial resources and time must have been spent for its development and trials.

The question that arises was: why has China gone on with such a project, with no analogous model being produced in the world. The light tank, more or less, in essence, is superior in armaments to the infantry fighting vehicle WZ502G. For sure, it has strong armor defense, but the question remains open whether this gain is large enough to justify the cost of creation of a whole new model of combat vehicles.

With a mass of about 30 tons versus an average of about 50 tons of the main battle tanks, it will still be inferior to them in terms of protection. Threats of attack by infantry antitank missiles, artillery guns and aircraft weapons will affect it in the same way as the main battle tanks, operating on the plains. It should be remembered that an attempt of mass deployment of tanks of type 62 in the war with Vietnam in 1979 led to huge losses, after which China, for some time, discontinued with the development of new models of light tanks.

On the other hand, it is known that India is also considering purchase of light tanks for its mountain troops and in the past has unsuccessfully attempted to develop such tanks based on the chassis of the BMP-1. Perhaps this served as one of the reasons for development of a new combat vehicle by Chinese designers
 
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