The War in the Ukraine

Right_People · May 25, 2023

SolarWarden said:
This war is so weird. So Russian MOD lied?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661724151520849920

Maybe it didn't detonate or damage was minimal?

Today a ship has arrived in Sevastopol, but it is not clear whether it is the SRK Ivan Khurs, or the minesweeper of the 12700 Alexandrit project.

From afar the ships are indeed similar in their geometry and the location of key superstructures.
Sooner or later we will either see the ship arrive in port or not, but at the moment it all seems too confusing.

Tam · May 25, 2023

Intense shelling against Ukrainian positions and shelters by the Russians 4th Artillery Brigade.

Ammunition depots of the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Brigade and the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade destroyed by DPR forces [0.39 of the video].

Ukrainian IFV hit by Lancet on the left bank of Kherson.

Temporary base of Ukrainian special forces or DRG after a Russian strike.

Five big explosions from a howitzer attack on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka.

Stealthflanker · May 25, 2023

HighGround said:
Nah, at this point I don't believe anything unless confirmed visually. Even then, I try hard to scrutinize the photos/videos. I've seen too many times where original assumptions were proven wrong. Even with the Moskva thinking, where it was actually sunk as originally suggested, there was so much misinformation for why it happened, when, Moskva's weapon loadout, and so on, that I just don't trust any of this OSINT nonsense unless there is overwhelming evidence

Well me too. Nonetheless you may see many "experts" on social media mudding the water.

Right_People · May 25, 2023

Huge VKS hit.
Russian channels say:

Today in Kherson direction, two Su-34s of Russian Air Force aircraft hit hangars with AFU armoured vehicles in Novoberislav
Total hit:
- more than 10 vehicles of automotive equipment;
- Approximately 15 armoured combat vehicles
- Up to 20 insurgents of the Ukrainian armed forces.

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vincent · May 25, 2023

Tam said:
Rare means you don't shoot down a lot in the first place to make such footage rare.

What is the effective range of the guns?

Right_People · May 25, 2023

The dam of the Karlovskoye reservoir west of Pervomaiskoye is reported to have been destroyed as a result of a Russian Armed Forces strike.

The villages of Halytsynivka, Zhelannoye One and Zhelannoye Two are under threat of flooding, according to Gauleiter Kirilenko of the temporarily occupied part of the DNR.

The dam of the Karlovskoye reservoir is of great military importance. Its undermining could seriously complicate the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction.

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Seems like Russians finally started attacking bridges and similar??

FriedButter · May 25, 2023

Right_People said:
Seems like Russians finally started attacking bridges and similar??

Probably their next area of focus is around Donetsk after Bakhmut rather then a campaign against things like bridges.

Right_People · May 25, 2023

FriedButter said:
Probably their next area of focus is around Donetsk after Bakhmut rather then a campaign against things like bridges.

I would say Avdivka area, that dam seems to be important to supply the south flank of the city where russians havent made as much progress as in the north

HighGround · May 25, 2023

Right_People said:
The dam of the Karlovskoye reservoir west of Pervomaiskoye is reported to have been destroyed as a result of a Russian Armed Forces strike.

The villages of Halytsynivka, Zhelannoye One and Zhelannoye Two are under threat of flooding, according to Gauleiter Kirilenko of the temporarily occupied part of the DNR.

The dam of the Karlovskoye reservoir is of great military importance. Its undermining could seriously complicate the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction.

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View attachment 113284 View attachment 113285

Seems like Russians finally started attacking bridges and similar??

If this was Ukraine doing it to Russia, Twitter would be overanalyzing it for hours as a "shaping operation" and I'd be reading a 30 post thread about how this is exactly what "competent" military forces do to prepare an offensive. The lack of similar analysis for Russian actions is negligence on the part of all the retired generals who keep themselves busy patting Ukraine on the head for all the things they do right or wrong.

Here's what OSINTers should actually be looking at.

Russian movements behind the lines. They should be using satellite imagery to track construction of new depots, and shifting LOCs. They should be looking at Russian rail activity, and trying to see where the preparation is mainly taking place. Which front is getting the most material. Trying to find these patterns out will give hints as to where the Russian MoD wants to strike next and how it's going about preparing the battlefield.

The OSINT community is incredibly intellectually lazy. I would do it myself, but ain't nobody got the time and cash to pay for satellite imagery.

Deino · May 25, 2023

sheogorath said:
Seems Russia is retaking some of the ground lost outside of Bakhmut and is starting to advance towards Kupyansk
...

Other maps show a slightly different scenario --

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657875219153932288

Tam said:
Footage of Ukrainian speedboat sinking.

But at least one came thru ...