Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

[KYli]

it's a waste to quote Bloomberg articles. They just had to sneak in a comment about Wind & transportation not keeping up with 0-carbon goals, even though they are going to be all NEVs before 2030.

I also don't get where they came up with the idea China needs to get to 5300 GW of solar by 2030. They have 2649GW in total right now. If they get to 5300 GW of solar by 2030, they basically wouldn't even need anything else

I agree that Bloomberg articles are all over the place. However, solar panels don't operate at its actual capacity. You need 3-4 times solar panels installation to match nuclear and coal installation capacity as nuclear power produces maximum power more than 90% of time during a given year but solar panels are at 20% range. In addition, you need storage and transmission grid that are readily available to make solar panels produces energy at optimal utilization.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

yeah, so I think my first table was quite unreasonable and came up with the second. I think that one is achievable based on the expansion we have seen. I have wind utilization set to 35% in both tables. 40% is for the overall utilization in 2022 across all energy sources.

Why is utilization so low? How is it defined exactly? It seems to imply 60% of all generated power is simply wasted. How does the picture look for energy storage into the 2030s (especially as sodium ion batteries enter) and can it improve the utilization rate in your projection?

 

[tphuang]

I agree that Bloomberg articles are all over the place. However, solar panels don't operate at its actual capacity. You need 3-4 times solar panels installation to match nuclear and coal installation capacity as nuclear power produces maximum power more than 90% of time during a given year but solar panels are at 20% range. In addition, you need storage and transmission grid that are readily available to make solar panels produces energy at optimal utilization.

dude, I posted the utilization on my message. Did you even read it?

here is my summary from Jan to April in China

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660806658677788672

Solar can probably get to 15% and that's it. (I don't expect days to get sunnier than that)
Wind can probably get to 35% as more offshore wind gets in the mix (offshore is 40 to 50% in utilization depending on where it's located)
Thermal is only about 50% in China right now due to cost. Guess what, when coal or natural gas is expensive, it cost more to run thermal than solar/wind energy.

A little update on my comment about Longi capacity here from 2022 to 2023

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1652845644648677378

Solar wafer 133GW->190GW
Solar cell 50GW->110GW
Solar Panel 95GW->130GW

It generated 60% more revenue in 2022 vs 2021. Now if solar prices continue to fall, it will obviously not maintain that level of revenue growth, but 50% capacity increase YoY for Longi has been quite normal

 

[KYli]

dude, I posted the utilization on my message. Did you even read it?

here is my summary from Jan to April in China

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660806658677788672

Solar can probably get to 15% and that's it. (I don't expect days to get sunnier than that)
Wind can probably get to 35% as more offshore wind gets in the mix (offshore is 40 to 50% in utilization depending on where it's located)
Thermal is only about 50% in China right now due to cost. Guess what, when coal or natural gas is expensive, it cost more to run thermal than solar/wind energy.

A little update on my comment about Longi capacity here from 2022 to 2023

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1652845644648677378

Solar wafer 133GW->190GW
Solar cell 50GW->110GW
Solar Panel 95GW->130GW

It generated 60% more revenue in 2022 vs 2021. Now if solar prices continue to fall, it will obviously not maintain that level of revenue growth, but 50% capacity increase YoY for Longi has been quite normal

I am only saying that 5300 GW of solar installation isn't enough to meet China's energy need as solar utilization rate is much lower than other energy sources.

 

[mossen]

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Pretty nuts. China has now built iron-clad leads in the climate-change future: EVs, solar and probably wind soon too.

 

[gelgoog]

Is there any news on China's advanced nuclear projects. Thorium molten salt reactor or the sodium cooled fast reactor?

The first CFR-600 sodium cooled fast reactor is expected to begin operations this year. The second one two years afterwards.

As you can see the first reactor building is already complete.

 

[tphuang]

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Now, Longi is warning consolidation needed for the excess capacity. For thos edoubting my projection that China could install 600GW of solar by 2030, just keep in mind that capacity for Polysilicon will already climb to 600GW by next year!

One step in the supply chain alone — producing the polysilicon that goes into the panels — will see capacity rise enough to produce 600 gigawatts this year,

 

[tphuang]

On the same day BYD unveils its new Rubik's cube ESS, CATL also unveils its own ESS solution as SNEC 2023

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661402203326758918

a major solar conference. will have more details. That's why so many solar related articles are out recently

 

[tphuang]

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TCL中环5月24日晚间发布公告，根据公司全球化发展规划，结合中东地区新能源产业资源优势、区位优势及政策支持，公司与Vision Industries Company讨论拟共同成立合资公司并在沙特阿拉伯投资建设光伏晶体晶片工厂项目，经友好协商于5月24日签署合作条款清单，增进合作双方的共识理解、推动合作项目进程。

公告显示，双方拟成立一家新的合资公司开展沙特地区光伏晶体晶片工厂的建设投资及产品销售。合资公司成立后主要负责光伏晶体、晶片生产制造及销售，销售区域主要包括中东及非洲地区（遵守适用的制裁法律和法规）等市场。

公告称，本次合作依托沙特及中东地区区位优势及政策优势、Vision Industries本地化经验及TCL中环在新能源光伏领域的领先技术优势和先进制造能力，双方致力于共同打造第一条沙特本土的光伏产业链，推动并助力沙特及中东地区能源转型。

同时，公司表示，本次合作是公司以ESG为可持续发展理念的基础上，推动新能源光伏产业全球化战略的重要进程。依托公司工业4.0先进制造模式推动在地化建设，在中东地区打造具有全球竞争力的光伏产业基地，为公司产业全球化、制造本土化奠定坚实基础，持续保持公司新能源产业综合实力全球领先优势。

此外，公告显示，本次合作事宜不存在损害公司及全体股东特别是中小股东利益的情形，本条款清单的签署不会对公司本年度财务状况及经营业绩构成重大影响，不会对公司业务独立性产生影响。

TCL Zhonghuan and Vision Industries Company from Saudi Arabia are forming a JV for PV. This will be used for producing and selling PVs and wafers in MENA region. Again, China is providing renewable solutions to the Middle East.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661418101898870820

Longi Solar tech is really special and they are the most vertically integrated solar company and the one with the best margins and capacity level