China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

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It is suggested to name the warship "Amethyst"

Good.

Last time, the PLA didn't manage to sink Amethyst and allowed her to escape Yangtze. Back then, the PLA only has a couple of cannons.

Now they want to return to China's doorstep with yet another Amethyst, when the PLA today already possesses a huge variety of weaponry and platforms to deal with exactly this kind of problem?

Let them.

 

[birdlikefood]

Good.

Last time, the PLA didn't manage to sink Amethyst and allowed her to escape Yangtze. Back then, the PLA only has a couple of cannons.

Now they want to return to China's doorstep with yet another Amethyst, when the PLA today already possesses a huge variety of weaponry and platforms to deal with exactly this kind of problem?

Let them.

However, this time I don't want another cat to be implicated by the arrogant actions of the British

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The belief that China can simultaneously supress Taiwan and US forces in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through long range fires alone is too optimistic imo

Why would China fight with long range fires alone?

 

[tankphobia]

Why would China fight with long range fires alone?

What other method can China fight US bases in the Philippines with before successfully breaking out past FIC? Even Japan is fairly safe from non-ballistic missile threats from China at the onset on conflict.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

What other method can China fight US bases in the Philippines with before successfully breaking out past FIC? Even Japan is fairly safe from non-ballistic missile threats from China at the onset on conflict.

Huh? Are you aware of the existence of the PLAAF and PLAN?

 

[tankphobia]

Huh? Are you aware of the existence of the PLAAF and PLAN?

PLAN should be fully committed to AD against US naval forces, spending PLAAF assets in an offensive war against Japan would inflict heavy tolls. Air launched cruise missiles are unlikely to penetrate Japanese air defense's anyhow.

For the record I'm not saying that the West will have fire superiority in a AR scenario, quite the opposite actually. I just don't think it's that easy or even possible to fully supress the enemy no matter what assets are in place just because the battle space is so massive.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

PLAN should be fully committed to AD against US naval forces

Who says? The best defense is a good offense. It should be clear to everyone here that China dominates the FIC and that dominance will only become more lopsided as time goes on. The PLAN should not and will not be committed to "AD" against US naval forces, it will be committed to destroying US naval forces.

spending PLAAF assets in an offensive war against Japan would inflict heavy tolls.

Yes, on Japan.

China is not going to tickle Japan with a few ballistics missiles. In a war, it would pummel Japan's assets in a PLARF initial strike, destroy whatever remains with PLAAF and PLAN attacks, and then blockade and bomb Japan until it surrenders.

Air launched cruise missiles are unlikely to penetrate Japanese air defense's anyhow.

Why not? What are Japan's air defenses? The same systems that so successfully defended Abqaiq against some Houthi drones?

For the record I'm not saying that the West will have fire superiority in a AR scenario, quite the opposite actually.

The West has significant fire inferiority in the FIC. Any war restricted to that theatre will very likely result in a decisive Chinese victory.

China's problem is to project power beyond the FIC and into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean so its adversaries cannot escalate a conflict by attempting to blockade China's SLOCs. That and hardening its economy to eliminate dependencies on foreign technology and energy. Happily, there is excellent progress on all these fronts.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Contradicting statements from the Philippines Foreign Affairs department vs Defense department

 

[plawolf]

Who says? The best defense is a good offense. It should be clear to everyone here that China dominates the FIC and that dominance will only become more lopsided as time goes on. The PLAN should not and will not be committed to "AD" against US naval forces, it will be committed to destroying US naval forces.

Yes, on Japan.

China is not going to tickle Japan with a few ballistics missiles. In a war, it would pummel Japan's assets in a PLARF initial strike, destroy whatever remains with PLAAF and PLAN attacks, and then blockade and bomb Japan until it surrenders.

Why not? What are Japan's air defenses? The same systems that so successfully defended Abqaiq against some Houthi drones?

The West has significant fire inferiority in the FIC. Any war restricted to that theatre will very likely result in a decisive Chinese victory.

China's problem is to project power beyond the FIC and into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean so its adversaries cannot escalate a conflict by attempting to blockade China's SLOCs. That and hardening its economy to eliminate dependencies on foreign technology and energy. Happily, there is excellent progress on all these fronts.

China is not stupid like America. In a hot war, it’s not going to needlessly open too many fronts against too many opponents.

If China is to invade and subjugate any other country as spillover from AR, it will be Japan. The Russians will probably be happy to split the tab and the country afterwards with China. They always wanted themselves a war water pacific naval base after all.

Say what you will of China’s leaders, they are not afraid to think big. The Philippines is a meaningless distraction in comparison.

 

[CMP]

Contradicting statements from the Philippines Foreign Affairs department vs Defense department

I imagine the defense department is correct, given bases are in their scope of work. Foreign affairs department is probably lying just to deflect risk of Chinese retaliation and sense from other foreign countries that Philippines is a full colony.