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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The logic of China is simple: Why fight now when you are growing 9-10% per year in nominal terms. Why fight with current military when you can fight 20 years later with a military several times stronger?

China's interest is to wait this out until China is stronger.

There is a deeper thinking as well. there is still an expectation that the Taiwanese hatred mainland China is related to the fact that mainland is poorer than Taiwan and thus Taiwanese look down on the mainland. If China becomes richer than Taiwan, plenty of Taiwanese will shed their superiority complex and start to see China and being Chinese as a positive thing. They might also see CCP leadership as a positive thing. They might shed their western worship which is fueling their anti-China animosity.

Overall, waiting is in China's best interest while they are growing stronger. This could change if Taiwan tries to get nukes or tries to put US troops in Taiwan.
The parts relevant for Taiwan aren't poorer though, and GDP per capita isn't average worker pay.
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, for instance, at 780k NTD (25k USD), yet TSMC engineers are among the highest paid in Taiwan.

The estimated base pay is NT$780,000 per year. The estimated additional pay is NT$480,000 per year. Additional pay could include bonus, stock, commission, profit sharing or tips. The "Most Likely Range" represents values that exist within the 25th and 75th percentile of all pay data available for this role.

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and more would be if they could? Taiwanese aren't comparing themselves to farmers in Guizhou and patting themselves on the back and smugly saying "we're wealthier than their farmers". They're comparing themselves to Shenzhen and Shanghai, and seething about it. To put it bluntly, Taiwanese don't have the capability to look down on mainland China, and they know it.

If relative wealth was all that mattered, how come Hong Kong was more pro China in 1998 and 2008 than in 2019? In fact the richer China got, the more extreme and anti-mainland Hong Kongers became. The most pro China guys are the old guys like Donnie Yen and Jackie Chan, and they remember a much poorer China. Why would this be the case, if your theory is correct?

Why fight now? I didn't say that its a great idea to fight right now, this very second. But why fight soon? Because some things can wait and some things can't. Nobody has the obligation to wait for you. if you're growing at 9-10% a year why do you think they won't react? You think everyone is dumb or blind, only you're smart? Only you have agency, everyone else just sits there waiting for you? They can't escalate? They can't react or change?
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
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Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and several city officials signed an agreement to become sister cities with the "United States of Kailasa." Two women garbed in what appears to be traditional clothing and jewelry gave an eight-minute speech speaking of creating an "enlightened Hindu civilization."

Nithyananda, a self-styled holy man who titles himself the "Supreme Pontiff of Hinduism," claims to have created Kailasa as a "revival" of a Hindu nation. The guru also claims to be able to disprove Einstein's theory of relativity and possess paranormal abilities. Nithyananda
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A spokesperson for Lithuania's mission confirmed that one of its employees had met with the Kailasa representatives to "listen to their concerns."

The U.N. really has fallen, to not catch this. I guess Lithuania must very much sympathize with "Kailasa", seeing as Lithuania is also a joke of a country.
This is why I’m willing to bet more than 90% of the so called “Gurus” in India are conmen, looking to take advantage of simpleminded and stupid people, especially the eat, pray, love, western woman.

in fact I do believe along with that NYT article, we are starting to see anglos start to come around to the acceptance stage
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9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
This is why I’m willing to bet more than 90% of the so called “Gurus” in India are conmen, looking to take advantage of simpleminded and stupid people, especially the eat, pray, love, western woman.

in fact I do believe along with that NYT article, we are starting to see anglos start to come around to the acceptance stage
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Heres to hoping Vivek becomes next Potus with Kamala as VP
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
You underestimate China's patience. China will wait extremely long time before doing any full scale invasion. I expect Taiwan to last until 2045. Unless ofcourse Taiwanese themselves become foolish enough to do something to trigger the fight early like racing for nukes or putting US troops.

Hahaha, even America won't last until 2045, not to mention Taiwan.
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
The parts relevant for Taiwan aren't poorer though, and GDP per capita isn't average worker pay.
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, for instance, at 780k NTD (25k USD), yet TSMC engineers are among the highest paid in Taiwan.



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and more would be if they could? Taiwanese aren't comparing themselves to farmers in Guizhou and patting themselves on the back and smugly saying "we're wealthier than their farmers". They're comparing themselves to Shenzhen and Shanghai, and seething about it. To put it bluntly, Taiwanese don't have the capability to look down on mainland China, and they know it.

If relative wealth was all that mattered, how come Hong Kong was more pro China in 1998 and 2008 than in 2019? In fact the richer China got, the more extreme and anti-mainland Hong Kongers became. The most pro China guys are the old guys like Donnie Yen and Jackie Chan, and they remember a much poorer China. Why would this be the case, if your theory is correct?

Why fight now? I didn't say that its a great idea to fight right now, this very second. But why fight soon? Because some things can wait and some things can't. Nobody has the obligation to wait for you. if you're growing at 9-10% a year why do you think they won't react? You think everyone is dumb or blind, only you're smart? Only you have agency, everyone else just sits there waiting for you? They can't escalate? They can't react or change?

China's GDP per capita is just $12K now. You can argue how Shanghai is rich nowadays but its GDP per capita is still about $25K, poorer than GDP per capita in other western big cities like NYC $100K+ or Tokyo $60K+. Besides, when the Taiwanese or Hong Kongers think about China, they look at the overall picture of China as a backward country still full of factories doing manual labor for the rich western nations and brands. China is slowly getting there ofcourse but it is still western companies who produce all the brands that people in Hong Kong or Taiwan buy. Whether its Japanese or American Cars, American iphone or French perfume and handbags.

When a Hong Konger or Taiwanese looks at the world, they see a world where the western universities are the top ones, western brands are the top brands for all the goods they buy, western fashion is what they follow, western apps and software that they use. So, where is Chinese superiority in anything in their daily lives? Chinese superiority in terms manufacturing efficiency? Chinese Superiority in steel production? Nope, these do not make headlines or effect normal people.

Hong Kongers and Taiwanese look up to the west and consider themselves atleast semi-western. So, China cannot be the country they look up to while the overwhelming image of China remains poorly educated laborers working in factories for the western consumer.

Even a few years ago, People in Hong Kong and Taiwan had enough money to keep a mistress in the mainland while having a wife in their homes. They see themselves as leaders and managers of mainlanders who work under them.

Now imagine if these poor people become slightly rich to have money but still lacked "manners" as Taiwanese and Hongkongers thought. So, mainlanders are portrayed as lacking hygene, manners and education that "semi-western" hong kongers and Taiwanese have, even if they have a little bit of money So, mainland tourists became heavily villified and hated in both of these places and contributed to the anti-China sentiment.

Mainlanders are rich enough to be seen as a threat to the superiority of Hong Kongers and Taiwanese. But not rich and educated and advanced enough to be equal to their "masters" or "role models" in the west. This is also why suddenly China is so hated in Korea or Japan for example. Even 10 years ago, China was seen positively as a poor country that still looks up to Koreans. But now they are a threat to the superiority of the Koreans.

China will have to blow past this current level of wealth, educaTtion. They will have to be atleast as rich as Japan and Europe. They will have to develop brands that are global and all-pervasive. So, Chinese Cars, TVs, Laptops, Phones and Chinese fashion will have to be equal to the west in terms of popularity around the world. That will prove that Chinese are not inferior to the west, but equal to the west and thus can be a role model for Hong Kong and Taiwanese.
 
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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's GDP per capita is just $12K now. You can argue how Shanghai is rich nowadays but its GDP per capita is still about $25K, poorer than GDP per capita in other western big cities like NYC $100K+ or Tokyo $60K+. Besides, when the Taiwanese or Hong Kongers think about China, they look at the overall picture of China as a backward country still full of factories doing manual labor for the rich western nations and brands. China is slowly getting there ofcourse but it is still western companies who produce all the brands that people in Hong Kong or Taiwan buy. Whether its Japanese or American Cars, American iphone or French perfume and handbags.

Hong Kongers and Taiwanese look up to the west and consider themselves atleast semi-western. So, China cannot be the country they look up to while the overwhelming image of China remains poorly educated laborers working in factories for the western consumer.

Even a few years ago, People in Hong Kong and Taiwan had enough money to keep a mistress in the mainland while having a wife in their homes. They see themselves as leaders and managers of mainlanders who work under them.

Now imagine if these poor people become slightly rich to have money but still lacked "manners" as Taiwanese and Hongkongers thought. So, mainlanders are portrayed as lacking hygene, manners and education that "semi-western" hong kongers and Taiwanese have, even if they have a little bit of money So, mainland tourists became heavily villified and hated in both of these places and contributed to the anti-China sentiment.

Mainlanders are rich enough to be seen as a threat to the superiority of Hong Kongers and Taiwanese. But not rich and educated and advanced enough to be equal to their "masters" or "role models" in the west. This is also why suddenly China is so hated in Korea or Japan for example. Even 10 years ago, China was seen positively as a poor country that still looks up to Koreans. But now they are a threat to the superiority of the Koreans.

China will have to blow past this current level of wealth, educaTtion. They will have to be atleast as rich as Japan and Europe. They will have to develop brands that are global and all-pervasive. So, Chinese Cars, TVs, Laptops, Phones and Chinese fashion will have to be equal to the west in terms of popularity around the world. That will prove that Chinese are not inferior to the west, but equal to the west and thus can be a role model for Hong Kong and Taiwanese.


Sorry to say this, but you're a lost cause. First, you don't understand some basic economics. The nominal GDP and nominal GDP per capita, which you are showcasing, are not adequate measurements of relative wealth nor standards of living for countries like China, which is a massive, world-leading exporter and a civilization on its own, let me explain.

Nominal GDP measured in dollars is mainly used for smaller countries or net importers that need to import a bunch of stuff from abroad, that's why you calculate their GDP in international currencies like the dollar. However, China doesn't need to import anything from the outside world because they already have every possible kinds of goods and services imaginable inside of their borders and priced in yuan.

When you are comparing Chinese and Western GDPs, you must look at the GDP PPP, because China doesn't need to import anything for you to be measuring China's GDP in terms of any western currencies. Chinese citizens buy Chinese products at Chinese prices, in Chinese currency, made inside of China, and that's maybe the case for 90% of the products and services that they buy. And they can buy stuff ranging from a needle to a plane because China simply produces anything imaginable nowadays.

China can buy everything from the inside of their own borders, in the currency called yuan, at their own prices, and that's why you should be using GDP PPP for China, which is based on prices inside of China and in their own currency, as they don't need to import anything from the outside, they are 30% of the world manufacturing, they are the factory of the world. They have trillions of trade surplus with other countries.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sorry to say this, but you're a lost cause. First, you don't understand some basic economics. The nominal GDP and nominal GDP per capita, which you are showcasing, are not adequate measurements of relative wealth nor standards of living for countries like China, which is a massive, world-leading exporter and a civilization on its own, let me explain.

Nominal GDP measured in dollars is mainly used for smaller countries that need to import a bunch of stuff from abroad, that's why you calculate their GDP in international currencies like the dollar. However, China doesn't need to import anything from the outside because they already have every possible kinds of goods and services imaginable inside of their borders and priced in yuan.

When you are comparing Chinese and Western GDPs, you must look at the GDP PPP, because China doesn't need to import anything for you to be measuring China's GDP in terms of any western currencies.

China can buy everything from the inside of their own borders, in the currency called yuan, at their own prices, and that's why you should be using GDP PPP for China, which is based on prices inside of China and in their own currency, as they don't need to import anything from the outside, they are 30% of the world manufacturing, they are the factory of the world. They have trillions of trade surplus with other countries.

GDP in PPP matters very little to the perception of people in terms who is wealthy and who is not. Your 100 yuan may buy the same clothing as the $100 dollar dress you buy in the US, but the quality differences will be pronounced. you may get a high end western branded dress with $100 but not with 100 yuan.

The fact is Japanese, Americans, Hong Kongers earn much more than the Chinese, their income is simply bigger when they buy western branded goods which is what they consider world's best. Their income will allow them to go alot more places for tourism. And Most westerners probably have bigger houses, probably more than one car and better quality of life in terms of stuff they own.

Moreover, the kind of Jobs that Hong Kongers or Westerners do are what is considered as superior white collar jobs. They work as lawyers, managers, scientists, designers while most Chinese are factory workers. So, it is no wonder they consider themselves to be richer and superior in every way.

Ofcourse, these things are changing slowly, China is getting better, but perception always lags behind actual situation. For China to be seen as equal to the west. They will have to be not only as equally rich in nominal terms, but also produce brands that are equal or superior to western brands.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
China's GDP per capita is just $12K now. You can argue how Shanghai is rich nowadays but its GDP per capita is still about $25K, poorer than GDP per capita in other western big cities like NYC $100K+ or Tokyo $60K+. Besides, when the Taiwanese or Hong Kongers think about China, they look at the overall picture of China as a backward country still full of factories doing manual labor for the rich western nations and brands. China is slowly getting there ofcourse but it is still western companies who produce all the brands that people in Hong Kong or Taiwan buy. Whether its Japanese or American Cars, American iphone or French perfume and handbags.

Hong Kongers and Taiwanese look up to the west and consider themselves atleast semi-western. So, China cannot be the country they look up to while the overwhelming image of China remains poorly educated laborers working in factories for the western consumer.

Even a few years ago, People in Hong Kong and Taiwan had enough money to keep a mistress in the mainland while having a wife in their homes. They see themselves as leaders and managers of mainlanders who work under them.

Now imagine if these poor people become slightly rich to have money but still lacked "manners" as Taiwanese and Hongkongers thought. So, mainlanders are portrayed as lacking hygene, manners and education that "semi-western" hong kongers and Taiwanese have, even if they have a little bit of money So, mainland tourists became heavily villified and hated in both of these places and contributed to the anti-China sentiment.

Mainlanders are rich enough to be seen as a threat to the superiority of Hong Kongers and Taiwanese. But not rich and educated and advanced enough to be equal to their "masters" or "role models" in the west. This is also why suddenly China is so hated in Korea or Japan for example. Even 10 years ago, China was seen positively as a poor country that still looks up to Koreans. But now they are a threat to the superiority of the Koreans.

China will have to blow past this current level of wealth, educaTtion. They will have to be atleast as rich as Japan and Europe. They will have to develop brands that are global and all-pervasive. So, Chinese Cars, TVs, Laptops, Phones and Chinese fashion will have to be equal to the west in terms of popularity around the world. That will prove that Chinese are not inferior to the west, but equal to the west and thus can be a role model for Hong Kong and Taiwanese.
you can't argue with perception because perception is an opinion. What good does the number
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So clearly that $100k, or whatever, doesn't actually matter. And it seems that you still are incapable of understanding that GDP per capita is not income.

And since its an opinion, opinions can be changed, whether by force or otherwise. Witness how they changed after the national security law was imposed on Hong Kong by force. Didn't need much of an income change there did it?

GDP in PPP matters very little to the perception of people in terms who is wealthy and who is not. Your 100 yuan may buy the same clothing as the $100 dollar dress you buy in the US, but the quality differences will be pronounced. you may get a high end western branded dress with $100 but not with 100 yuan.

It doesn't? When your infrastructure is crumbling while Chinese infrastructure is world class, when Chinese people live longer, are less likely to die in childbirth like medieval times, have faster internet and didn't get 1 million of them taken out by a simple flu, what does the number actually mean?
The fact is Japanese, Americans, Hong Kongers earn much more than the Chinese, their income is simply bigger when they buy western branded goods which is what they consider world's best. Their income will allow them to go alot more places for tourism. And Most westerners probably have bigger houses, probably more than one car and better quality of life in terms of stuff they own.
Guess you dropped Taiwanese there after I showed you with proof that no, they don't actually earn much more. I also noticed you didn't say that Hong Kongers had better houses, owned cars, or had a better quality of life. Why not?
Moreover, the kind of Jobs that Hong Kongers or Westerners do are what is considered as superior white collar jobs. They work as lawyers, managers, scientists, designers while most Chinese are factory workers. So, it is no wonder they consider themselves to be richer and superior in every way.
They do? Show me the data. Where do most of them work as lawyers, managers, scientists, designers?
 
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