On Chinese president visiting Saudi Arabia, I feel the "heat" here. Expectations have been built up here as well as other social media. I want to pour some cold water.
China maintains an amicable relationship will all sides in the ME region. On the one hand, China is not going to tip the balance in the region. On the other hand, China does not want to be hijacked by any side in the region. This visit is going to reveal its importance in time, but definitely not in a similar style to Trump's visit.
Saudi is playing the elephants. Saudi has to balance east and west when it comes to substances as well as optics. The fact that President Xi is visiting is the most important leverage Saudi has gained vis-a-vis the west. The Arabs know that the Chinese value long-term substances more than short-term face values.
Therefore, I don't expect any out-of-the-ball-park show during the visit. And I don't expect any in-your-face dollar amount during the visit. Any long-term agreement will not trounce the one China signed with Iran earlier.
From China's angle, the most important goal is to signal that China now values ME more important than ever. That in itself will make many people in the west sleepless, given China's capabilities and capacities in all domains that ME countries can leverage.
When GCC countries join SCO or BRICS or even RCEP over time, I expect the west will take a more pragmatic approach to China. Just imaging countries from China, Russia to Central Asia to Iran to GCC are members of those organizations. I think that would be one important step further for Xi to resolve the TW issue. 2026 is my pick.
