The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
Maybe I'm missing something here...
Russia evacuated civilians before retreating, and now that Ukraine is in control, they're also evacuating civilians?
There are always people who will stay. Kherson city for one example has population of about 289,600 people and AFAIK Russians claimed to have evacuted 115,000 of them. That's some 100,000+ people might likely still be there.
The Russian pranksters have got the Polish president. This time they're actually getting useful secret information instead of saying stupid things. Maybe they've received an FSB briefing.
It seems there are doubts the that it was a S-300 missile that landed. According to the president the crater was 25m width and 5m depth - sounds like a ballistic missile impact to me. No wonder it was memoryholed by western media pretty quickly.
The prank call itself is hilarious, especially the thick Russian accent that was supposed to be Macron who sounds like a typical Frenchman. Apparently this is the second time the Polish president has been pranked by the same people.....
It seems there are doubts the that it was a S-300 missile that landed. According to the president the crater was 25m width and 5m depth - sounds like a ballistic missile impact to me. No wonder it was memoryholed by western media pretty quickly.
The prank call itself is hilarious, especially the thick Russian accent that was supposed to be Macron who sounds like a typical Frenchman. Apparently this is the second time the Polish president has been pranked by the same people.....
Is this looks 25 m O-o ?
Looks to me like just 4-5 meters in diameter. Looking at Tractor beside it, agricultural tractor is typically have length of 4.5-5 meters.
Knowing the diameter tho, one can try finding yield of the explosion by simple equation :
D=0.8*(W^1/3) Where W is weight of the explosive or the equivalent of it in Kilograms. D is in Meters.
a 500 Kg warhead Kh-101 will produce about 6.34 m diameter crater according to the equation. While an S-300 missile run amok will have velocity of Mach 3-4 finding the kinetic energy and converting it into TNT equivalent yield about 160 Kg TNT equivalency. Well the missile can be expected to have expended its 938 Kg of propellant as its burn out in just 9 seconds. Thus for a total mass of 1.6 Tonne it will leave flying mass of 727 Kg.
That fluttering down to earth at velocity of Mach 4 or about 1360 m/s would yield kinetic energy of .5*727*(1360^2) = 672329600 Joule
Or 672.32 MJ while 1 Kg TNT have energy of 4.2 MJ.. dividing that 672.32/4.2 = 160 Kg.
Thus the crater diameter would be about :
D=0.8*(160^(1/3))
D=4.34 meter
That assumes the missile is a solid mass but if the warhead also exploded, you might deal with combined yield of 160 Kg of TNT with the warhead. 5V55 have warhead of about 143 Kg.. this is blast frag, and therefore there is Charge to mass ratio which is ratio between the mass of the warhead and the real explosive charge. If this is 0.5 then we are dealing with 71 Kg of Explosive, if we assume this similar as TNT and add that to the 160 Kg. we are then dealing with 231 Kg.
This will produce crater with diameter of about 4.9 meters.
a 25 m diameter crater is produced by about 30 Tonne of warhead which no Russian or Ukrainian or even NATO missiles ever have.
From that picture the hole definitely isn't 25m wide, maybe he was talking about blast dispersion?
Here's some drone footage of the site
Can a Kh-101 even reach Poland?
Isn’t the Kh-101 speculated to have a range of around 2000-3000km? The distance between Moscow and Warsaw is about 1200km
The range of the kh-101 is 4500km.
There are estimates from 2000km to 5500km.
‘Most advanced & highly reliable’: Putin commends designers of Kh-101 strategic cruise missile
“I would like to thank both the military personnel and the designers and developers of one of our latest missile systems, Kh-101,” Putin at a Meeting of the Commission for Military Technical Cooperation with Foreign State.
“This missile system has proved highly reliable. It is indeed the most advanced weapon with high precision and capacity, and a range of 4,500 km, which is quite good,” he added, urging defense companies to step up production of modern weapons.