I looked and couldn't find a recent thread on the composition of PLAN air wing, so I thought I would start one here. I want to explore the current and future composition of PLAN air wings.
From what I can see, CV-16 started off with a regiment of 24 J-15s + about a dozen helicopters of various types along with some JL-9G trainers. Those trainers are not going to be used on missions. The helicopters seem to be about 2 or 3 Z-9s, 3 SAR Z-18s, 3 AEW Z-18Js and 3 Z-18Fs. Based on Huitong's list of photos, I see that they built 6 more J-15s for CV-16 after losing 2 to crashes. I also see that they built 28 J-15s for CV-17. So, that seems to indicate PLAN is willing to operate at most 28 J-15s on Varyag. Although, that would probably mean much fewer helicopters. The smaller Charles De Gaulle class managed to be deployed with as many as 30 Rafale, 2 E-2Cs, 2 Dauphins and 1 NH-90 as its largest air wing. With J-15s and Z-18s' large size, I think an air wing of 28 J-15s, 6 Z-18s and 2 Z-9s would probably be the most they could realistically operate off Liaoning. It would be more than the Russians ever tried to operate off Admiral Kuznetsov carrier. It would also be a lot more capable than what IN can operate off INS Vikramaditya. If they could upgrade J-15s with more modern avionics/missiles, it could be comparable to Charles De Gaulle class in overall capabilities.
The problem is that the first generation J-15s are quite limited in terms of avionics and missile support. The only advantage they have over J-11Bs are more AShM capabilities. I thought about replacing J-15s with J-15Bs down the line, but all the J-15s are still new. It would make more sense for them to do an avionics upgrade on J-15s in a few years with whatever J-15Bs are using. At that time, they could also replace the engines with WS-10Hs.
The more interesting bit is figuring out what 003 and the even larger 004 could field. It would have to be a combination of J-15s, J-35s, KJ-600, Z-18s and Z-20. From , Nimitz class air wing consists of 36 F/A-18E/Fs, 12 F-18s, 4 E-2Cs, 4 EA-18Gs and some number of helicopters. In the future, this would probably look more like 24 F-35Cs and 24 F/A-18E/Fs. If we use Nimitz as a reference point for 003, we could see an air wing of 32 J-35s, 12 J-15Bs, 4 J-15BDs, 4 KJ-600, a small number of UCAVs and 12 helicopters. The larger 004 could see an air wing of 40 J-35s, 12 J-15Bs, 4 J15BDs, 5 KJ-600 and similar complement of UCAVs and helicopters.
I'm proposing a more 5th generation (and potentially more capable) air wing on 003/004 here than Nimitz/Ford class, because PLAN can do this without making the same conservative decision that USN made with super hornets. One could argue that when USN decided to replace F-14s/A-6s with F/A-18E/F/Gs, it was actually replacing existing air wing with a less capable one. At least one that had worse range and payload. When USN made the decision to order a whole lot of Super hornets (540 in service and another 78 to be delivered), it effectively made that aircraft the mainstay of the naval aviation for a couple of decades. Only 273 F-35Cs are expected to be ordered. When they are paying Boeing a lot of money this decade to upgrade those aircraft to Block III standard, they are likely to be around until 2040s. As such, PLAN is benefiting from a decision US made when the war on terror was still the focus of Washington establishment.
I would expect J-15 variants to be serving PLAN for a long time. Even in the age of stealth, there is still a huge role for large multi-role fighter jet that can carry a lot of large anti-ship missiles and powerful radar/EW suites. With its superior range/payload, they could potentially do that role better than super hornets.
From what I can see, CV-16 started off with a regiment of 24 J-15s + about a dozen helicopters of various types along with some JL-9G trainers. Those trainers are not going to be used on missions. The helicopters seem to be about 2 or 3 Z-9s, 3 SAR Z-18s, 3 AEW Z-18Js and 3 Z-18Fs. Based on Huitong's list of photos, I see that they built 6 more J-15s for CV-16 after losing 2 to crashes. I also see that they built 28 J-15s for CV-17. So, that seems to indicate PLAN is willing to operate at most 28 J-15s on Varyag. Although, that would probably mean much fewer helicopters. The smaller Charles De Gaulle class managed to be deployed with as many as 30 Rafale, 2 E-2Cs, 2 Dauphins and 1 NH-90 as its largest air wing. With J-15s and Z-18s' large size, I think an air wing of 28 J-15s, 6 Z-18s and 2 Z-9s would probably be the most they could realistically operate off Liaoning. It would be more than the Russians ever tried to operate off Admiral Kuznetsov carrier. It would also be a lot more capable than what IN can operate off INS Vikramaditya. If they could upgrade J-15s with more modern avionics/missiles, it could be comparable to Charles De Gaulle class in overall capabilities.
The problem is that the first generation J-15s are quite limited in terms of avionics and missile support. The only advantage they have over J-11Bs are more AShM capabilities. I thought about replacing J-15s with J-15Bs down the line, but all the J-15s are still new. It would make more sense for them to do an avionics upgrade on J-15s in a few years with whatever J-15Bs are using. At that time, they could also replace the engines with WS-10Hs.
The more interesting bit is figuring out what 003 and the even larger 004 could field. It would have to be a combination of J-15s, J-35s, KJ-600, Z-18s and Z-20. From , Nimitz class air wing consists of 36 F/A-18E/Fs, 12 F-18s, 4 E-2Cs, 4 EA-18Gs and some number of helicopters. In the future, this would probably look more like 24 F-35Cs and 24 F/A-18E/Fs. If we use Nimitz as a reference point for 003, we could see an air wing of 32 J-35s, 12 J-15Bs, 4 J-15BDs, 4 KJ-600, a small number of UCAVs and 12 helicopters. The larger 004 could see an air wing of 40 J-35s, 12 J-15Bs, 4 J15BDs, 5 KJ-600 and similar complement of UCAVs and helicopters.
I'm proposing a more 5th generation (and potentially more capable) air wing on 003/004 here than Nimitz/Ford class, because PLAN can do this without making the same conservative decision that USN made with super hornets. One could argue that when USN decided to replace F-14s/A-6s with F/A-18E/F/Gs, it was actually replacing existing air wing with a less capable one. At least one that had worse range and payload. When USN made the decision to order a whole lot of Super hornets (540 in service and another 78 to be delivered), it effectively made that aircraft the mainstay of the naval aviation for a couple of decades. Only 273 F-35Cs are expected to be ordered. When they are paying Boeing a lot of money this decade to upgrade those aircraft to Block III standard, they are likely to be around until 2040s. As such, PLAN is benefiting from a decision US made when the war on terror was still the focus of Washington establishment.
I would expect J-15 variants to be serving PLAN for a long time. Even in the age of stealth, there is still a huge role for large multi-role fighter jet that can carry a lot of large anti-ship missiles and powerful radar/EW suites. With its superior range/payload, they could potentially do that role better than super hornets.