Chinese Economics Thread

[Bellum_Romanum]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568803052764958720

Zero-COVID in China is now even stricter than it was before vaccines and effective medical treatments despite new strains having much lower virulence

And your point is Exactly what? Just let it rip? What would be the ideal situation for Chinese authorities to do? Is your objection political or why is this policy problematic in your opinion? Because of this policy is what allowed the Chinese economy to be relatively unscathed from the height of the pandemic of 2020-2021 and it's only this year that Chinese economic forecast has dipped. From the prior 2 years, the Chinese economy tops most of all the developed western countries economic performance which is why China had been able to ramp used productions and actually increased it's manufacturing output for successive years thereby negating the effects of the dynamic Zero-COVID policy this year.

Unless, losing millions from Covid-19 while infecting 70% of China's population like America experienced is what you'd count as winning worthy to be emulated by China. Perhaps, am missing something here so help me, help us understand the approach China should be making right now.

 

[2handedswordsman]

@henrik please explain the current housing market issues or lack thereof in America, Canada in cities like Toronto, Vancouver having the most expensive real estate in Canada and rank high up in all of North America.

How about the current market conditions in South Korea where the Seoul government is trying to phase out basement dwellings as a result from their worst floods due to the heaviest rainfall recorded in a century. South Koreans are forced to live in less than ideal situation because the housing market is just too damn expensive for any hardworking South Koreans to afford. One of the interviewed person on this segment works for the Government and yet the place he can afford is no better than your average S.Korean.

You keep harping on the invisible hand a.k.a. Adam's Smith "Free market" that never was. There's only regulated market in America and elsewhere.

If Free market was to be allowed, there would be no need for any regulation or regulatory agencies since the regulation or the winner of any industries ought to be left strictly and only to whichever company sells the most or chosen by the sheeps. So if you buy milk that's rotten, spoiled as an example that responsibility lies on the idiot consumer who made the rationale choice of choosing to buy from that business. The business itself will then collapse or shut down if it fails to improve it's product quality and safety. Hence, there's no need for any government intervention. If you buy anything that will lead to your demise the onus is on you. Is this where your stance? Are you one of these Chinese who believes in this crap?

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[hhuang41]

And your point is Exactly what? Just let it rip?

Indeed. The virus is now just a flu, especially given high vaccination

What would be the ideal situation for Chinese authorities to do? Is your objection political or why is this policy problematic in your opinion? Because of this policy is what allowed the Chinese economy to be relatively unscathed from the height of the pandemic of 2020-2021 and it's only this year that Chinese economic forecast has dipped.

Zero COVID makes sense when the virus was much more dangerous. It does not make sense anymore when it is not dangerous and everyone is vaccinated - especially given the large costs it is imposing on birth rates, business confidence and investment, young people, small businesses, the labor market and economic growth.

Unless, losing millions from Covid-19 while infecting 70% of China's population like America experienced is what you'd count as winning worthy to be emulated by China. Perhaps, am missing something here so help me, help us understand the approach China should be making right now.

Nearly all of America's current COVID-19 deaths are either from elderly people with comorbidities and/or from unvaccinated people. Indeed, since China has a healthier population and a higher vaccination rate, having a COVID policy which is far more open makes much more sense

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Indeed. The virus is now just a flu, especially given high vaccination

Zero COVID makes sense when the virus was much more dangerous. It does not make sense anymore when it is not dangerous and everyone is vaccinated - especially given the large costs it is imposing on birth rates, business confidence and investment, young people, small businesses, the labor market and economic growth.


Nearly all of America's current COVID-19 deaths are either from elderly people with comorbidities and/or from unvaccinated people. Indeed, since China has a healthier population and a higher vaccination rate, having a COVID policy which is far more open makes much more sense

Birthrates? For this year is going to collapse China is that it? Are you serious?

If the Chinese government and overall majority of her citizenry don't want to emulate what the west did then let them. Why are people like you so concern with their economy, and country when the country you're living has more pressing problems that aren't actually even being dealt with any serious attention from your own government.

Am really confused from people like you who pretend to be expert and come with this all knowing solutions that China and Chinese leadership ought to follow. I mean, geez effing crikey.

 

[Blitzo]

Indeed. The virus is now just a flu, especially given high vaccination

Zero COVID makes sense when the virus was much more dangerous. It does not make sense anymore when it is not dangerous and everyone is vaccinated - especially given the large costs it is imposing on birth rates, business confidence and investment, young people, small businesses, the labor market and economic growth.


Nearly all of America's current COVID-19 deaths are either from elderly people with comorbidities and/or from unvaccinated people. Indeed, since China has a healthier population and a higher vaccination rate, having a COVID policy which is far more open makes much more sense

Whenever this comes up, there are only two questions to ask:
1. What is the number of deaths from COVID that will occur if "XYZ" method of "opening up" occurs?
2. What is the level of sociopolitical instability that will occur due to the above number of deaths from COVID?

If the level of sociopolitical instability is one that the central government deems too risky, then the safest option is going to be to choose a slower and more cautious way of opening up.


Slightly better economic performance is always going to be outweighed in importance by sociopolitical stability of the nation.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Whenever this comes up, there are only two questions to ask:
1. What is the number of deaths from COVID that will occur if "XYZ" method of "opening up" occurs?
2. What is the level of sociopolitical instability that will occur due to the above number of deaths from COVID?

If the level of sociopolitical instability is one that the central government deems too risky, then the safest option is going to be to choose a slower and more cautious way of opening up.


Slightly better economic performance is always going to be outweighed in importance by sociopolitical stability of the nation.

Outside of Western style of "letting it rip" and Zero Covid lockdowns, is there a middle ground way/ways?

And what are the reasons why health experts from Singapore or Taiwan decided to relax their covid policies? Their healthcare systems aren't that much better than China's.

 

[henrik]

Indeed. The virus is now just a flu, especially given high vaccination

Zero COVID makes sense when the virus was much more dangerous. It does not make sense anymore when it is not dangerous and everyone is vaccinated - especially given the large costs it is imposing on birth rates, business confidence and investment, young people, small businesses, the labor market and economic growth.


Nearly all of America's current COVID-19 deaths are either from elderly people with comorbidities and/or from unvaccinated people. Indeed, since China has a healthier population and a higher vaccination rate, having a COVID policy which is far more open makes much more sense

Partly because China does not have access to more efficient and effective mRNA vaccines, they have to enforce the zero-covid policy, which is dragging down the economy. This will be solved by approving local mRNA vaccines.

 

[vincent]

Whenever this comes up, there are only two questions to ask:
1. What is the number of deaths from COVID that will occur if "XYZ" method of "opening up" occurs?
2. What is the level of sociopolitical instability that will occur due to the above number of deaths from COVID?

If the level of sociopolitical instability is one that the central government deems too risky, then the safest option is going to be to choose a slower and more cautious way of opening up.


Slightly better economic performance is always going to be outweighed in importance by sociopolitical stability of the nation.

I think you are responding alt account of @JeremySun

 

[KYli]

Partly because China does not have access to more efficient and effective mRNA vaccines, they have to enforce the zero-covid policy, which is dragging down the economy. This will be solved by approving local mRNA vaccines.

That's one of the biggest lies from MSM. Countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea which use mostly mRNA vaccines have their hospitals overwhelmed and were forced to turn away patients. Don't know why people are still spreading such lies.

 

[hhuang41]

Birthrates? For this year is going to collapse China is that it? Are you serious?

They've been on a nonstop double-digit decline y/y since 2019, yes, it is indeed a problem.

If the Chinese government and overall majority of her citizenry don't want to emulate what the west did then let them.

Yes, and economic policy choices can be wrong. The majority of citizenry are ambigious towards any policy choice, in any case. The overarching goal of Chinese policy for centuries in any case has been to catch up to the West

Am really confused from people like you who pretend to be expert and come with this all knowing solutions that China and Chinese leadership ought to follow. I mean, geez effing crikey.

As opposed to slavishly following a policy which has caused 20% youth unemployment and the slowest growth in decades?