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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
But that's like saying apart from the upfront cost, maintenance cost, and fuel cost a Ferrari F430 is a better than a Wuling Hongguan van.

The problem with nuclear is it's too expensive, and ROI is too long. That's why all the nuke companies are bankrupt and only china can build new ones.
no, that is not it. you have it completely wrong.

You're not answering the question. Since you accept that there has been large improvements in cost and solar panel efficiency, what do you think the real EROEI is now? It obviously isn't the old 7-10 figure from 2014.




What you're talking about is irrelevant to the original point I'm making, which is that Solar can provide enough energy to displace an increasingly scarce hydrocarbon like oil.

1. You're also mixing up financial payback versus the energy payback

2. You're using links and references which are irrelevant.

You referenced residential solar payback calculators designed for residential use electricity profiles. But it's clear from Lazard/Bloomberg that residential solar is far more expensive than commercial or utility scale solar. In addition, the US levies a high import duty and tariffs on Chinese solar imports, but the rest of the world doesn't. The US is not representative of the global solar industry.

2. I was very specific that the combination of [solar + electric vehicle] is far superior to [oil + petrol engine car]. That is both from a cost and aggregate energy efficiency perspective.

Solar generates very low-cost electricity during a short period during the middle of the day. In the current electricity grid structure, this results in "excess" electricity.

But when you have electric cars with batteries that need to be charged anyway, the electricity use profile changes dramatically. Solar electricity generated during the day can be productively sent to electric car batteries.

The fact remains that utility-scale solar electricity bids are down to 1-3cents per KWh in places like Saudi Arabia, Portugal, Nevada and Arizona. And that the motors in electric cars are over 80% efficient in converting electricity into movement.

And looking to the future, we can expect to see significant improvements to solar and electric vehicles.

I don't know for certain what the actual EROEI is on solar right now. But we can think about the fundamentals. The determinants of EROEI for photovoltaics is the efficiency of the panel, the panel lifetime, the derating curve over the lifetime and energy inputs.

The NREL breakdown shows wafer processing costs and raw silicon costs are flat even in the best case scenario of scaleup. So the energy input from the silicon is not changing much. It does show a decline in cost of non-silicon components from scaleup. That would be things like glass encapsulation and metal interconnects.

From a
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and
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source, the lifetime per panel is still 25-30 years without change

From sources previously referenced, the average efficiency today is 17-19%, the same as NREL 2019 efficiency of 19%. So there is no improvement in efficiency.

The question then is that of the derating curve - does the decline over lifetime happen the same way? This requires experimental data.

Thus the conclusion is, based on known factors, the EROEI has not changed much from 7-10.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Thus the conclusion is, based on known factors, the EROEI has not changed much from 7-10.

Then every single one of the hundreds of solar panel manufacturers in the world are in deep, deep trouble.

They are guaranteeing electricty outputs which result in EROEI figures of 17-27 for their panels. Just look at the performance guarantees they have listed for the next 25 years.

Are they all stupid? Or do they know actually their product can deliver?

---

Furthermore, we see Chinese companies planning to double their solar output in 2022 and then double again in 2023

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/China-has-340-reactors-worth-of-solar-cell-plants-in-the-pipeline
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The world-nuclear analysis does list a 3 month energy payback which you've quoted.

But given that a modern nuclear plant has a minimum lifespan of 40 years, that is an EROEI of 120, which sounds absurdly high.

In comparison, the 2014 Sciencedirect paper which you previously referenced has an nuclear EROEI of 14.

As I've said before, you need good data to work with.
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Can you point out the section where the nuclear EROEI was give as 14? I've indeed seen such figures elsewhere, but they aren't very detailed. World Nuclear site with EROEI at 50+ is the most detailed plus it agrees with other sources.

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The EROEI for nuclear (and hydro, and fossil fuel) is indeed absurdly high. Conventional onshore US oil can get EROEI > 100 and most conventional oil is ~40. It's ridiculous.

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But note this is CONVENTIONAL fossil fuel. Solar is superior to non-conventional fossil.

Then every single one of the hundreds of solar panel manufacturers in the world are in deep, deep trouble.

They are guaranteeing electricty outputs which result in EROEI figures of 17-27 for their panels. Just look at the performance guarantees they have listed for the next 25 years.

Are they all stupid? Or do they know actually their product can deliver?

---

Furthermore, we see Chinese companies planning to double their solar output in 2022 and then double again in 2023

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/China-has-340-reactors-worth-of-solar-cell-plants-in-the-pipeline
solar sales are not entirely EROEI driven and even with EROEI at 7-10, they're still way better than nonconventional fossil fuel such as oil sands, shale and LNG with EROEI < 5, and those get billions in investment.

I'm not saying that solar is bad. I'm saying it's not as good as hydro, nuclear and conventional fossil, but nothing is. Being the "4th best energy source" gets you sales especially with other considerations like lead time, startup capital, land acquisition costs, etc.

Solar (and wind) decisively beats everything else like oil sands, shale oil, LNG, etc. and if those get investments, why wouldn't solar get sales?
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Liz Truss published an essay in the Telegraph:

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by Liz Truss

Thirty one years ago, Ukraine took a decisive step forward on its path as a free democracy. We have stood with them throughout. The UK was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, and is now at the forefront in supporting our friends in their battle to stop Putin from turning the clock back through force of arms.

This is the week the Ukrainian people celebrate their independence, but they are having to fight for their country’s future and the unalienable right of all people to self-determination and liberty. What happens in Ukraine matters for us all. As Foreign Secretary, I have helped lead the international response and worked flat out to provide support in unison with our friends and allies. If I become prime minister, I will do everything I can to ensure the flame of freedom in Ukraine continues to burn bright. Putin cannot prevail.

Under my leadership, President Zelensky will have no greater ally at this dark hour than the UK. We are already at the vanguard of international support in providing £2.3 billion in military aid, more than any other nation in Europe. We rallied our G7 partners in targeting Russia with the toughest sanctions ever on a major economy. We have released intelligence to deny Putin any strategic initiative, whether massing his troops on Ukraine’s border ahead of the invasion, or plotting to install a puppet government in Kyiv, or in their efforts to brutalise the areas they have invaded.

Russia’s invasion has been built on lies. The Putin regime said they would not invade Ukraine, and that they would not harm civilians or target infrastructure. Yet they have sought to justify the unjustifiable through a deluge of disinformation. They have presided over the bombardment of homes, schools and hospitals. They have forced thousands of people to flee for their lives. Their actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are endangering the region.

Russia is ploughing ahead with plans to hold referenda across parts of Ukraine they have seized. This is a shameless assault on the Ukrainian people’s right to decide their own future. A vote at gunpoint and after mass deportations could never be free.

The grim reality of Putin’s war has made Russia a global pariah. As Foreign Secretary, I have been relentless in calling out the horrors of this conflict, such as the massacre of civilians in towns like Bucha and Russia’s attack on global food security by blockading Ukraine’s ports. I followed up these words with action such as dispatching war crimes experts to gather evidence.

When malign actors are ready to peddle falsehoods, our duty is to ensure the world hears the truth. That is why we set up the Government Information Cell to counter the Kremlin’s false narratives. We will continue to step up our work to counter the efforts of Russia and other authoritarian regimes to use disinformation to sow confusion and undermine global stability, drawing on the skills and tools at our disposal alongside our international partners.

I will go further as prime minister by doing everything possible – including declassifying more intelligence – to expose Putin’s playbook to the world. My government will use intelligence strategically to reveal the Kremlin’s attempts to undermine and destabilise freedom-loving democracies. Where there are lies, they will be exposed, where there is barbarism, we will call it out. I will take the same tough approach to counter malign activity from potentially hostile states and others who threaten global security.

Ukraine has been a sharp shock of reality for the free world, a wake-up call that we have to heed. We have to rethink our approach to security in an increasingly dangerous world, and make sure we do everything in our power to keep Britain and the values we believe in safe.

As prime minister, I will increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030, rethink the way we constrain and deter adversaries, and ensure Britain plays a leading role in the global effort to defend freedom and democracy.

That is why what happens in Ukraine is so important. If the free world falters and Putin succeeds, it will embolden authoritarians everywhere. However long it takes, a Ukrainian victory is in all our interests. We are in for tough times over the next year – especially as winter sets in – but cannot afford to waver in our resolve. We have proven Putin wrong before in the strength of our resolve and can do so again together with our Ukrainian friends.

This is the moment for the free world to have the courage of its convictions by continuing to stand with Ukraine.
I will ensure the UK remains bold in support, galvanising our international coalition in our shared determination to see the Ukrainian people win the battle for their future. Together, we can show autocrats like Putin that they will never snuff out the flame of freedom.
 

tygyg1111

Captain
Registered Member
Liz Truss published an essay in the Telegraph:

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by Liz Truss

Thirty one years ago, Ukraine took a decisive step forward on its path as a free democracy. We have stood with them throughout. The UK was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, and is now at the forefront in supporting our friends in their battle to stop Putin from turning the clock back through force of arms.

This is the week the Ukrainian people celebrate their independence, but they are having to fight for their country’s future and the unalienable right of all people to self-determination and liberty. What happens in Ukraine matters for us all. As Foreign Secretary, I have helped lead the international response and worked flat out to provide support in unison with our friends and allies. If I become prime minister, I will do everything I can to ensure the flame of freedom in Ukraine continues to burn bright. Putin cannot prevail.

Under my leadership, President Zelensky will have no greater ally at this dark hour than the UK. We are already at the vanguard of international support in providing £2.3 billion in military aid, more than any other nation in Europe. We rallied our G7 partners in targeting Russia with the toughest sanctions ever on a major economy. We have released intelligence to deny Putin any strategic initiative, whether massing his troops on Ukraine’s border ahead of the invasion, or plotting to install a puppet government in Kyiv, or in their efforts to brutalise the areas they have invaded.

Russia’s invasion has been built on lies. The Putin regime said they would not invade Ukraine, and that they would not harm civilians or target infrastructure. Yet they have sought to justify the unjustifiable through a deluge of disinformation. They have presided over the bombardment of homes, schools and hospitals. They have forced thousands of people to flee for their lives. Their actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are endangering the region.

Russia is ploughing ahead with plans to hold referenda across parts of Ukraine they have seized. This is a shameless assault on the Ukrainian people’s right to decide their own future. A vote at gunpoint and after mass deportations could never be free.

The grim reality of Putin’s war has made Russia a global pariah. As Foreign Secretary, I have been relentless in calling out the horrors of this conflict, such as the massacre of civilians in towns like Bucha and Russia’s attack on global food security by blockading Ukraine’s ports. I followed up these words with action such as dispatching war crimes experts to gather evidence.

When malign actors are ready to peddle falsehoods, our duty is to ensure the world hears the truth. That is why we set up the Government Information Cell to counter the Kremlin’s false narratives. We will continue to step up our work to counter the efforts of Russia and other authoritarian regimes to use disinformation to sow confusion and undermine global stability, drawing on the skills and tools at our disposal alongside our international partners.

I will go further as prime minister by doing everything possible – including declassifying more intelligence – to expose Putin’s playbook to the world. My government will use intelligence strategically to reveal the Kremlin’s attempts to undermine and destabilise freedom-loving democracies. Where there are lies, they will be exposed, where there is barbarism, we will call it out. I will take the same tough approach to counter malign activity from potentially hostile states and others who threaten global security.

Ukraine has been a sharp shock of reality for the free world, a wake-up call that we have to heed. We have to rethink our approach to security in an increasingly dangerous world, and make sure we do everything in our power to keep Britain and the values we believe in safe.

As prime minister, I will increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030, rethink the way we constrain and deter adversaries, and ensure Britain plays a leading role in the global effort to defend freedom and democracy.

That is why what happens in Ukraine is so important. If the free world falters and Putin succeeds, it will embolden authoritarians everywhere. However long it takes, a Ukrainian victory is in all our interests. We are in for tough times over the next year – especially as winter sets in – but cannot afford to waver in our resolve. We have proven Putin wrong before in the strength of our resolve and can do so again together with our Ukrainian friends.

This is the moment for the free world to have the courage of its convictions by continuing to stand with Ukraine.
I will ensure the UK remains bold in support, galvanising our international coalition in our shared determination to see the Ukrainian people win the battle for their future. Together, we can show autocrats like Putin that they will never snuff out the flame of freedom.
UK should send the Prince of Wales... oh wait
 

JebKerman

Junior Member
Registered Member
no, that is not it. you have it completely wrong.
OK... I'm sure in the nuclear EROEI = 120 fantasy land Toshiba, Westinghouse and EDF are making great profits, and totally not bankrupt; 29/56 of EDF reactors are totally not offline right now; and Hinkley Point C (announced back in 2008) is on budget and ahead of schedule, totally not going to cost £26B instead of £12B and absolutely not delayed to 2027.

Meanwhile in the real world nukes take >12 years to build, and cost a huge amount to built, maintain and decommission, only viable for well run governments with a lot of foresight and actually workable energy policies. Commercially they are too risky, completely uninvestable, so talking about their return on investment in almost pointless.
 

luosifen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Another ship got stuck in the Suez it seems:

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2022-09-01 16:08:37Xinhua Editor : Li Yan
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A large oil tanker stranded in Egypt's Suez Canal was refloated late Wednesday, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) said on Thursday.
"The vessel coming from Portugal ran aground in the Suez Canal at about 7 p.m. local time (1700 GMT) on Wednesday, and tug boats released it into its navigational course five hours later," said George Safwat, spokesperson of the SCA.
He added that the vessel, Affinity V, had been blocking the southern section of the canal for a short period, noting that "traffic has returned to normal."
The incident took place in the same single-lane stretch of the canal where the Ever Given, a giant cargo ship, ran aground for six days in March 2021, causing disruption in global trade movement.
Since the freeing of the Ever Given, the SCA has been expanding and deepening the course of the canal, which is due to be completed in 2023.
Linking the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea, the Suez Canal was officially opened for international navigation in 1869, serving as a lifeline for global seaborne trade since it allows ships to travel between Europe and South Asia without navigating around Africa.
 
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