Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[sunnymaxi]

I have no idea what you're complaining about. The PLA grew from a force using Russian throw-away weapons to one with stealth fighters, nuclear submarines, AWACs, hypersonic nuclear missiles, the only anti-ballistic missiles in the world, aircraft carriers and soon an EMALs aircraft carrier. No military around the world has grown this quickly so what are you talking about? You need the economy to support technological progress and you need technological progress to boost the military so it's natural where China is today. China's economy has basically just shown itself to surpass the US economy by winning the trade war; China's technological development is challenging the US, and the military is not yet on par with the US but growing faster. Putting the military first will cause a country to end up top-heavy like the Soviet Union.

spot on. why people always forget this important thing, compare PLA of 2000 with current capabilities of PLA. in 1990's China was struggling to feed their own people and look at now. all achieved in just 30 mere years with the help of growing economy. PLA growth rate is mesmerizing, never seen before in recent history. can't complain much.

economy always fuel to high tech and high tech fuel your military. it is a circle and economy is the most important thing. this is how US won cold war.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I know that. But I would hardly call such passages as innocent.

They at the end of the day are, unless the ships begins firing missiles, doing training, lighting up things with radars etc.

Or if the ships go within 12 mile of land, which would be territorial waters and not EEZ.

Moreover, every crossing through the middle of the strait has basically always been accompanied by PLAN ships that could sink the US ship(s) if it really wanted lol.

And even quite recently the US wanted to have a carrier cross the strait (to send a political message), but they got scared of by the PLA to not lol.

 

[Overbom]

They have always supported it. Biden is a lying sack of shit. There is no doubt the Neocons are planning something between now and 2025 before Trump comes in with a wrecking ball.

Did anyone really believe Biden? Anyone else remembers Biden repeatedly "misspeaking" about Taiwan?

This is a calculated move by the US, and definitely not an "accident" as they would like us to believe

 

[Abominable]

My last point on nuclear weapons. I don't think China would be confronting America openly until it has achieved an effective strategic deterrence.

If that is what is happening right now then I would assume the PLA believes it has at least achieved MAD.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I have no idea what you're complaining about. The PLA grew from a force using Russian throw-away weapons to one with stealth fighters, nuclear submarines, AWACs, hypersonic nuclear missiles, the only anti-ballistic missiles in the world, aircraft carriers and soon an EMALs aircraft carrier. No military around the world has grown this quickly so what are you talking about? You need the economy to support technological progress and you need technological progress to boost the military so it's natural where China is today. China's economy has basically just shown itself to surpass the US economy by winning the trade war; China's technological development is challenging the US, and the military is not yet on par with the US but growing faster. Putting the military first will cause a country to end up top-heavy like the Soviet Union.

You're just frustrated at the situation so you need to find someone to blame and the only one you can grab is the CCP. But they're doing the best job in the world and the fact is that this situation happened because China is growing so fast that America's insecurities and fears demand that it try to rock the boat while it still can. You want to channel your energy and hate, save it for the instigator: the US. Work hard in STEM, make sure your children work hard in STEM and make sure they know they're Chinese. Regardless of where and old hag goes, as long as Chinese people stay patriotic and do our best for China, China will continue to chase the US and overtake the US. The least helpful thing you can do is attack the CCP, which is what every US politician wants to see in Chinese people.

I wouldn't pay voyager's ranting too much mind, but there is something to be said about the anemic military spending at this time. Yes, China went from Soviet hand-me-downs to building stealth fighters, but it has (at the most generous estimate) 150 of those fighters vs. 800 F-35s. Now, I'm a believer in the J-20, but I can't believe that one of them is worth more than five F-35s.

It's certainly reasonable to argue that in the recent past China needed to dedicate the overwhelming bulk of its effort to closing the technology gap with the US, but those gaps have been closed in all but a handful of areas. The challenge now is to scale China's technology and build a large number of weapons and train the personnel to use them. That needs direct military spending.

Finally, as good as the CPC undoubtedly is, no one is good enough to be above learning. China's well-wishers hope and advocate that the government learn the correct lessons from this situation.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Then why does the Pentagon say China will have over a thousand by 2030?

To say China *currently* has far more than 350 is silly cope, to say they will in a few years is perfectly valid.

It's pretty easy to count TELs and the brigades & bases they're all located at as well, the OSINT guys have them all mapped out very well.

The numbers per TEL is unknown with estimates for MIRVs per DF-41 ranging from 2 to 10. A 5x margin of error means they don't actually know jack shit.

It is also very hard to track TELs. US couldn't find Iraqi SCUDs despite 100% territorial AWAC coverage and a ground invasion. Russia can't track Ukrainian Tochka TELs. FAS in their 2019 to 2020 report changed from 300 to 350 warhead estimate and introduced DF-41 which apparently didn't exist until they went on parade and they included only the number that showed up on parade.

 

[escobar]

Now the White House supports her visit. "But Biden and Xi talked!!" lol

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And in case some people are blind, let me increase the font a bit:

Why the white house would not support her? The old lady going to humiliate the PRC. A great win for Biden

 

[sheogorath]

The reason the USSR was trash

It has its own historical reasons on the fact that the USSR was under siege since its inception(the US, UK, France and Japan occupied the Soviet Russia back in 1919 up to 1921) which forced them to focus on heavy industry at the expense of everything else and once they tried to diversify, couldn't, in part because they were blockaded to hell an back already.

China was afforded far more leeway in this regard, specially after the Sino-Soviet split in which they decided to do Kissinger's biding for a time but it only lasted so long.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

6 new DF-5C silos are completed, visually confirmed.

Even at existing estimated stockpiles of Pu there's sufficient for up to 1300 new weapons.

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It's consistent with existing foreign (low ball) estimates.

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Also doesn't account for dismantling old DF-4s and repurposing in smaller MIRVs, and recent reprocessing.

It's great that China has enough plutonium for 1,300 new weapons. What about the plutonium for the 4,000 other weapons China needs to reach parity?

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

The political crisis will get stronger to the side of Taiwanese secessionist as time goes by because the most vocal of them (the liberal intellectual class) actually even see Chinese including the ROC as an illegal occupier of Taiwan. According to their understanding, Japan hasn't formally given/ceded back Taiwan to China since Japan won the Taiwanese territory from China as a concession and not merely a military occupation.

"The Treaty of Shimonoseki, concluded after the First Sino-Japanese War, transferred sovereignty of Taiwan to Japan. The handover of Taiwan to Japan was a territorial cession and not merely a military occupation.


The United States appointed Chiang as a proxy occupant, with Chiang acting as an agent of the American principal. Following the principle that military occupation does not transfer sovereignty, however, the declaration of “Taiwan Retrocession Day” was null and void. Instead of the beginning of the Republican Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, Retrocession Day marked the beginning of Chinese occupation, as Japan retained de jure sovereignty over Taiwan.

Legally, the retreat should be interpreted as the exile of an occupying power into occupied territory, with Japan as the host state."
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And this line of thinking becomes more mainstream in Taiwan, the peaceful transfer of power between China would become very difficult and challenging to say the least as the old guard (those who longed for unification) in Taiwan dies off and replaced by the new patriots of Taiwan. It's not hard to foresee a possibility that by the time China is ready to reunify the island it would have lost the people of that island to the sort of thinking illuminated, pushed forth by America without the necessity of bloodshed and or extermination of these separatist ideology that's become a sense identity to the young people in Taiwan.

Is time really China's side when it comes to Taiwan? Or that place is a lost cause when it comes to it's inhabitants that even if and when the island is reunified firmly back to China that it may have permanently lost the people completely to a separate Taiwanese independence spirit.

I am of the belief the longer this Taiwan issue is delayed then the sooner the island is lost because what's the point of having a land back when the very people that lives on the land hate and despises you?