Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[daifo]

I have said this many times, but here it is again... China has the dumbest sounding Propaganda if the intention are for the western audience. They could of easily avoided much of this by saying "Pelosi visiting Taiwan will have negative consequences to the relationship between the US and PRC." Everything would of been ambiguous and people can at least wonder what "revenge" will take place in some undetermined future time.

China can't even self sufficiently produce phone or cpu chips in decent quantities, so I don't even know why people bother warmongering at this point. Interception, harrassment, dropping flares, .. all fine, but anything further onto a us aircraft is not rational especially if you want China to become the eventual #1.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

What about Pelosi lands, and then the entire envoy (and the plane) gets obliterated by a HGV on the tarmac? Preferably right in front of English vegetable as well, I hope. That's certainly a night for her to remember.

Very unlikely

One more:
US military planes don't enter Taiwan's airspace, ROC planes are sent to escort her, PLAAF shoots down ROC planes, Pelosi turns back.

Depending on the circumstances, in this scenario, there is a non-zero chance that Pelosi's plane is shot down by accident

Definitely a scenario

I think there are several levels of escalation below your top two that I had mentioned before.

- ROCAF fighters escorting Pelosi into ROC airspace gets splashed and Pelosi’s plane is allowed to leave alive.

- Pelosi’s plane is locked with radar and/or warning shows fired across her bow in ever decreasing distance to the plane itself until it turns back.

I am leaving out the more outlandish joke scenarios floating around Chinese internet of ROCAF escort fighters ramming Pelosi’s plane or shooting it down themselves where a pilot(s) takes things into their own hands to try to prevent war.

Also possible scenarios

 

[ashnole]

Two weeks ago the Dalai Lama visited Ladakh after many years. China threatened India with consequences over his visit but in the end the visit took place and China did not do anything.

As time passes by I'm getting more and more convinced that this Pelosi episode will end similarly.

 

[9dashline]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554120199775080449

Looks like a showdown is about to happen. 22:30 on Tuesday and a meeting with Tsai at 8:00 Wednesday.

Huge provocation that China must response. This redline is gonna get crossed.

Which time zone or is there a zulu/utc to reference

 

[FriedButter]

China can't even self sufficiently produce phone or cpu chips in decent quantities, so I don't even know why people bother warmongering at this point. Interception, harrassment, dropping flares... all fine, but anything further onto a us aircraft is not rational especially if you want China to become the eventual #1.

Because this is an existential crisis. It is not about economy or progress. The CCP and China is staking their legitimacy, stability, and existences on the line here. If Pelosi visit is a success then more high level officials of other countries will take it as a sign that China is bluffing and will lead to outright independence.

Two weeks ago the Dalai Lama visited Ladakh after many years. China threatened India with consequences over his visit but in the end the visit took place and China did not do anything.

As time passes by I'm getting more and more convinced that this Pelosi episode will end similarly.

They are not remotely the same situation and circumstances here.

 

[FriedButter]

Which time zone or is there a zulu/utc to reference

If it’s local media reporting then the assumption is the local time on the island.

 

[ironborn]

Then she dies. It’s as simple as that.

There, this sums it up.

 

[clockwork]

Two weeks ago the Dalai Lama visited Ladakh after many years. China threatened India with consequences over his visit but in the end the visit took place and China did not do anything.

As time passes by I'm getting more and more convinced that this Pelosi episode will end similarly.

I hate the restraint from the CPC tbh. The Dalai Lama should've been rapidly disincorporated by the fragments of a DF and so should Pelosi. Make so many empty threats and you numb your enemies to them.

 

[ashnole]

Because this is an existential crisis. It is not about economy or progress. The CCP and China is staking their legitimacy, stability, and existences on the line here. If Pelosi visit is a success then more high level officials of other countries will take it as a sign that China is bluffing.



They are not remotely the same situation and circumstances here.

How so? China claims Ladakh as its territory (from Qing days) and repeatedly calls Dalai Lama "a separatist indulging in terrorism against China".

 

[MixedReality]

Just goes to show how stupid it is to have such low military spending. It should be minimum 3%.