Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[ACuriousPLAFan]

China currently has:
1. Embaassy in Washington DC; and
2. Consulate General in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. The one in Houston has been closed down.

The US currently has:
1. Embassy in Beijing; and
2. Consulate General in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang and Hong Kong. The one in Wuhan has been closed down.

In a retaliatory move to the visit, China can consider instructing the American consulate in Shenyang to close, since that's where the SAC is located. The American consulate in Hong Kong should be ordered to close down too, since that's one of the bases of operation for directing the Hong Kong riots.

In return, China can consider closing down the Chinese consulate in Chicago, since there isn't many people with Chinese ancestry living there. Another step further would be the consulate in Los Angeles, leaving only the consulates in San Francisco and New York open, apart from the embassy in DC.

 

[Overbom]

Irrationality is China best response IMO. The CPC has been (believe it or not) over-pragamatic. This causes other powers to perfectly predict China counter-moves which makes China loses the initiative and look as a soft persimmon.

So an element of irrationality or craziness is needed here. Xi should give a call to Super Kim and ask him for advice on how to properly deal with such blatant provocations

 

[Biscuits]

The bottom line is probably that if US makes it clear she's on an unofficial visit using a commercial airliner with no US military forces violating Chinese airspace, China will not shoot her down. Anything else and there's a decent chance that EW will be used at least, if not outright fighter launched missiles or drone strike.

China can tolerate Pelosi arriving if its clear that the US military was cowed from approaching Chinese territory. US can spin it as a win and so can China. This would also allow China an excuse to snap increase military spending, close down certain US consulates, expel the US ambassador and start more constant drone/air patrols above Taiwan Island.

 

[s002wjh]

As I said before, there will be consequences for this stunt if Pelosi does go to Taiwan, but IMHO there will not be a hot conflict over this.

Joe will make the phone call to call it off, that's my prediction.

If not, the consequences will be economic to the US making them wishing they had not tried this stupid stunt.

CNN verify Pelosi will visit Taiwan overnight according their source, at this point Pelosi can't back off anymore, doing so will make US look weak, Dem will be a target from the right.

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[Bellum_Romanum]

According to this recent CCTV video on YouTube, Pres.Xi himself said that the "PLA must think (anticipate) ever possible dangers in times of peace, and chaos in times of governance. "

This Pelosi trip will be revealed just how far Xi is willing to let this latest American provocation unfold. Is his rhetoric going to catch up to him with this latest American stunt or is he willing to push beyond the rhetoric.

 

[Phead128]

Serious message, lol no. China going to look tremendously weak. Just a lot of bluster and useless warning

It will be appropriate and commensurate with the meaningless symbolism of Pelosi-visit.

If US wants, it could arm Taiwan with nuclear warheads, nuclear submarines, F-35's, and issue formal diplomatic recognition, and place US troops/bases on the island, reactivate the MDT treaty. Oh wait, useless bluster and showmanship with a meaningless symbolic visit.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Your concept of victory is vastly different than what the folks in the country want when their emotions are revved up due to the constant, almost non-stop provocations from America.

It doesn't matter what they want. If they don't have the self-control to master their emotions and think clearly about what victory requires, their opinions and wants are irrelevant.

Decisions, any decisions for that matter big or small are not free from emotional input. Relationships make or break depending on two people's emotional stability.

This isn't a relationship between two people, it's a burgeoning superpower's strategy.

Besides, we act and think like our grandiose plans can proceed accordingly able to anticipate every possible hiccups along the way, and magic bazillion nukes are ready, 12 aircraft carriers are made unimpeded, and the Chinese economy allowed to grow by the impotent west helplessly from afar finally accepting that their time and place has been set aside for the Dragon.

What hiccups would those be? China doesn't require a bazillion nukes, it requires parity with the US. Whether that happens at 60, 600, 6,000, 60,000, or 600,000 is the US's choice. What impediments could there be to China constructing however many carriers it needs? It's shipyards are the largest and most advanced in the world. The West is already trying everything it can to stop China's growth and technological advancement and all it's managed to accomplish is an acceleration of those efforts. Acceptance of their decline would require a level of grace and rationality from the West's that is far beyond their capability. If they had it, they'd be in a far better place than they are now.

But, I hope you're proven to be correct, for China's and all our sake.

Don't hope, observe and calculate.

 

[jwnz]

CNN verify Pelosi will visit Taiwan overnight according their source, at this point Pelosi can't back off anymore, doing so will make US look weak, Dem will be a target from the right.

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Nah, no one cares what CNN says, just an unnamed source. Until she either lands or not, nothing is set in stone.

I still bet on no show.

 

[Biscuits]

Any competent people in the US military would have realized a war will lead to defeat.

The disparity in resource and industrial ownership is far too large. So what that US has almost twice as large navy? The Japanese had 2 times as many and more modern CVs than USN as well. US navy is also far too spread out even compared to the IJN.

US pilots, fighters and ships won't be replaceble, not with most population being unwilling to fight for conquest of a faraway island that has no ties to USA (It'd be different if China was invading Hawaii instead), and not with US still being reliant on Chinese semiconductors from TSMC. Once war starts, Beijing will seize most semiconductor plants and scorched earth anything they can't seize. How can you make missiles without the rare earths to make electronics and without the fabs to process such electronics?

Even if China chooses to shoot down Pelosi's plane, don't expect any too crazy moves from the US military. There will be sanctions against the politicians involved in the shoot down. US could create more racist laws against Chinese. They might even bombard overseas Chinese bases after making sure the Chinese soldiers vacated. But all out war will only happen if US military has a very convincing plan towards winning.

Iran didn't respond to US killing Soleimani except by increasing diplomatic measures against them and token military movements either, even though Soleimani was a hero for the Iranians. Pelosi is a villain in the eyes of Americans, so there's even lower chance of all out war happening.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

It doesn't matter what they want. If they don't have the self-control to master their emotions and think clearly about what victory requires, their opinions and wants are irrelevant.

This isn't a relationship between two people, it's a burgeoning superpower's strategy.

What hiccups would those be? China doesn't require a bazillion nukes, it requires parity with the US. Whether that happens at 60, 600, 6,000, 60,000, or 600,000 is the US's choice. What impediments could there be to China constructing however many carriers it needs? It's shipyards are the largest and most advanced in the world. The West is already trying everything it can to stop China's growth and technological advancement and all it's managed to accomplish is an acceleration of those efforts. Acceptance of their decline would require a level of grace and rationality from the West's that is far beyond their capability. If they had it, they'd be in a far better place than they are now.

Don't hope, observe and calculate

What the Chinese people feel and want does matter greatly not least to the party. It's after all the Chinese people that gives the party the legitimacy to govern China not the other way around. Plus, when the shooting starts it's their lives will be on the line not yours or most of us here since we can't serve in their military for varied reasons.

Don't know what you do for a living or what experiences you have made in your life but your outlook, let alone cavalier attitude towards the thoughts of the people under you if you're a leader or led any group of people successfully. Your pronouncements comes off a striking resemblance to Jiang Jieshi's brash, bold, and uncaring attitude towards the very people he needed to secure his victory and vision for his Republic of China.