Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
These rumours of which day Pelosi will land in Taiwan the coming, are just that rumours.

If the rumours were leaked by the American media, then there is some bite to it.

If the rumours were sourced from Asian voices - then that is all bullshit.

Those rumous of the latter variety are subtle hints, they are messages from Taiwan and other American lackeys in the region, a direct plea to the wicked witch of Washington, "Please come!"

Since I like to bet, I would put some North Korean Dong on that Pelosi is not coming, because the lackeys are putting that kind of pressure on her to come, like saying don't let me down sort of thing.

Probably buy some extra insurance and put some North Korean Dong on that broomstick getting blown from the sky, and straight to heaven.

Amen!

:rolleyes::D
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
Blitzo said:
In times of actual, proper crisis, I think it's more important than usual to take a step back and avoid emotional fulfillment and venting of frustration towards the crisis or the circumstances of it.
If there's any moment to seriously put up some effort and discipline into posting, I think this would be it.


I basically have three overriding observations, that are taken together:

- Neither side at present actually wants to go to war, and thus neither side will carry out actions involving the use of lethal force in anger in a manner that can easily lead to direct military action against the other. But a variety of options and actions short of that is technically on the table, with the variety being so large that I believe it isn't worth speculating over.

- Pelosi will very likely end up carrying out her trip to Taiwan, and it is wishful thinking to believe that China or the PLA have the physical ability to obstruct or prevent her plane from touching down on Taiwan as that would have to involve the use of lethal force, thus invalidating the previous above point.

- China's warnings and the PLA's warnings towards Pelosi's trip was never one that threatened the use of lethal military force (or the threat of war) in this instance, but rather that the trip would be further moving China and the US state of further irreversible tension and/or confrontation that could result in conflict between China and Taiwan (and by extension the US) in the future. In essence it is a further warning that this is getting closer and closer to the red line. But it is not a threat of war and lethal force, and the US knows this, and we should all know this too. Anyone trying to portray China's warnings as if they are "toothless," are either genuinely misinterpreting the intent of China's signaling -- or they are being deliberately malicious.



I do not think trying to speculate beyond that level of detail is worthwhile at this stage, and instead the responsibility is to sit back and watch.

This will be my last contribution to the thread until the entire ordeal is finished.
Click to expand...
You could have easily just said

"In times of actual, proper crisis, I think it's more important to shut up and observe than comment on every little thing" instead of the paragraphs you wrote but I understand what you're saying.

I'm just here with my popcorn watching this spectacle.
 
M

Mirabo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hope this is just a nothingburger. I live 20 miles from where the PLA was shooting rockets into the Strait the other day, so if the shooting starts, I'd have to seek out the nearest bomb shelter (i.e. the carpark).

After all the noise over the last 2-3 years about US officials visiting Taiwan, I'm fairly optimistic that this "crisis" will just fizzle out. Instead of pointlessly speculating, best to wait another few days and see if Pelosi is really going or not, and if she does, how the PLA will respond.

I'm here with my MREs popcorn watching this spectacle, too.
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Sorry but this is circular reasoning where you have assumed China’s warnings have no teeth and then used that as the basis for everything else.

To think that countries will only go to war when they are good and ready is uncharacteristically naive.

Indeed, if we look back at history, many of the biggest wars happened precisely when none of the parties involved are fully ready nor wanted those wars, and this exact same underlying assuming that they other side is bluffing because of XYZ is a fundamental cause for the oversteps that tipped everyone over the edge.

For America this is purely a political stunt, but for China, there is only an incredibly small amount of leeway it can give on this most sensitive of issues. The timing of this stunt is also incredibly sensitive and may well be what tips things over the edge.

At the best of times Beijing would be hard pressed to let such a visit slide, but to time it just as Xi is about to take his 3rd term is adding a whole new level of stakes to this matter since the Taiwan issue is the core justification for Xi to get his 3rd term in the first place. Intentionally or not, this visit is a direct challenge to Xi’s 3rd term on top of a near unprecedented challenge to status quo.

Yet your underlying assumption here is that Pelosi’s will to see things through is greater Xi’s. How does that compute exactly?

You are also apparently trying to apply American government standards to China. When has China ever explicitly said cross this line and it mean war when China actually had gone to war before? It’s unreasonable and illogical to demand China say things in a way it has never done before just because that’s how the American public expects to hear such messages.

This is not to say war is inevitable, but it is absolutely possible. Likely even. It would be stupid frankly to write that possibility off on such flimsy grounds. I can only hope the decision makers in Washington are not making the same mistake, because that’s how great wars start when people on power make such fundamental errors.
Click to expand...
The Pelosi trip is the US calling China's bluff... Im fairly certain China will not allow her plane to land, including shooting it down if it comes down to it. And by doing so calling America's bluff in return. What US does after that and how China responds to that response is anyone's guess...

This is my wager, if Im wrong, if Pelosi is allowed to actually land in Taiwan and return back to US safetly, then a permanent ban and public shaming is my penalty and outcome for being wrong on this prediction...
 
Helius

Helius

Senior Member
Registered Member
Kich said:
You could have easily just said

"In times of actual, proper crisis, I think it's more important to shut up and observe than comment on every little thing" instead of the paragraphs you wrote but I understand what you're saying.

I'm just here with my popcorn watching this spectacle.
Click to expand...
I thought it was pretty clear that was Blitzo's polite way of saying exactly that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top