New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

[56860]

BYD providing battery packs for charging cars

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Baidu's unmanned taxi fleet keeps getting larger

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Well, they are already building a big factory in Thailand for right side driving markets, so the investment is there.

Malaysia, they probably will be well served to have a local factory too. Both of these places, I think Dolphin and Sea Gull will do well. Seal might be too much for the local market.

Singapore is a different market. Getting license plate is crazily expensive. If they want to get into Singapore, they need to do it with a premium model. Maybe Seal works. But definitely something in the their new premium series.

India is growing pretty fast. While it may have lower average income than Thailand and Malaysia, the sheer size of the country means they will have a larger group of people that can afford something like Dolphin and Sea Gull. Plan for the next 5 years, not just now.

India is only going to grow fast because they have literally not gone anywhere in the past 3 years. 2022 GDP is barely above pre-pandemic 2019 GDP. Compared to their original trajectory, India's growth has actually stymied massively. They are among the worst hit nations economically by the pandemic.

 

[getready]

Incomes in India are significantly lower than in most of ASEAN.
Places like Malaysia and Thailand are at comparable income levels to China, so they are ready for an EV takeoff.
Singapore is another candidate because it is a wealthy city-state, so they literally don't have long-distances to deal with, but you need to come in with a premium product because car registrations are so limited.

Plus ASEAN is a lot more friendly to Chinese investment (or indeed any foreign investment) than India.

So I would put India lower down in terms of priority than ASEAN, even against somewhere like Indonesia.

Singapore is perfect due to its size. One end to the other takes less than an hour drive.. Electric grid isn't so hard to set up there. But problem is government has set up quotas of private vehicles to limit the number of cars on the road, so getting them to switch to electric cars won't fit the agenda. Electric buses though should be big player. Most people still use public transport in the city state.

 

[gelgoog]

There simply isn't enough space in Singapore for everyone to be driving a car. The roads would get clogged up. That is why there are separate registrations for vehicles which can drive every day of the week and vehicles which can only drive in weekends.

 

[tphuang]

A few pieces of news today.

People outside China are catching on to the difficulties that foreign automakers are having with EV revolution in China

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Geely group and Luminar putting money into COVA Acquisition group to take ECARX public in US listing.

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Here is Luminar, being working with Geely's Volvo brand since 2018 in providing Lidar technology.

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Given the pressure Geely feels at home from BYD and new EV startups, it's pushing more an export/acquisition strategy. This may make it easier for Geely to export cars to Western markets.

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Wuling mini are getting sent to Indonesia for assembly and export. The Chinese mini EVs should do well in many ASEAN markets like I said. I think Chery, Geely and BYD should be the next to bring their PHEV and BEV models here.

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[tonyget]

 

[by78]

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[sndef888]

Interesting that the two late entrants Leapmotor and Neta are now basically at the top and overtaking the 3 more well known ones (Nio Xpeng Li). Though to be fair they sell cheaper cars.

I think Leapmotor, Neta and Xiaopeng are going to be fighting for top position in the future. Leapmotor is a well managed company with backing from Dahua, while Neta somehow always manages to get their designs right

 

[supersnoop]

I think BYD should be very wary of having a wholly owned factory in India. Look at what happened with Xiaomi, Vodafone and a lot of other foreign multinationals for example.

Probably the best option is to continue with JVs with local Indian partners, for political protection against the government. BYD will still be exporting components.

But even then, I don't see that many sales because incomes are low and there isn't any electric car charging infrastructure in place (and there won't be a big push for this for years yet)

Funny you say this, GM recently closed their factory and Great Wall is trying very hard to buy it.
Chinese companies are still very much willing to take the risk in India.

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[tonyget]

Funny you say this, GM recently closed their factory and Great Wall is trying very hard to buy it.
Chinese companies are still very much willing to take the risk in India.

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Yes，large Chinese companies are still eager to get into emerging markets despite risks and bad business environment. Most of these emerging markets have red tapes, corruption，blackmail，bureaucratic mismanagement etc all sort of issues.

For two reason：

First is competition in Chinese domestic market is fierce for most of sectors. Not only in big business，but small business as well.

Second is compare to western multinationals who have been doing business all across the global for hundred of years already，Chinese companies are rookies and inexperienced. They don't have much experiences of long term risk assesment and control before they decide to invest in certain countries，it would take time and some failures for them to become mature when it come to invest abroad.

 

[TK3600]

Yes，large Chinese companies are still eager to get into emerging markets despite risks and bad business environment. Most of these emerging markets have red tapes, corruption，blackmail，bureaucratic mismanagement etc all sort of issues.

For two reason：

First is competition in Chinese domestic market is fierce for most of sectors. Not only in big business，but small business as well.

Second is compare to western multinationals who have been doing business all across the global for hundred of years already，Chinese companies are rookies and inexperienced. They don't have much experiences of long term risk assesment and control before they decide to invest in certain countries，it would take time and some failures for them to become mature when it come to invest abroad.

That is exactly my concern with BYD. Expanding way too aggressively across world.