Chinese semiconductor industry

[weig2000]

US doesn't have to threaten sanctions. Through it's worldwide security/spying apparatus it keeps tabs on all politicians in all countries and knows who is compromised (another reason Huawei cannot be allowed to gain market share). Talking about countries like Trinidad and Tobago, easily half or more of those politicians can be brought down (via leaks to friendly journalists), disgraced or even put on the Clinton list for sanctions individually.

There's a reason that Latin American politicians always toe the line when it comes to the US. All of them are compromised. All of them want to be able to travel to the US and vacation in Miami without being arrested. And once you are on that US Treasury or "Clinton" list, you are as good as dead. No more bank account, no more air travel, nothing for you. This is a "soft" power that China will never have.

You're getting carried away.

How much efforts and resources that US has invested in banning and destroying Huawei? What's the political, financial, economic, reputational cost that the US had to pay to get where they're? It had resorted to hostage-taking, but in the end still had to release Ms. Meng Wanzhou. The US has never, ever applied and invested so much resources and efforts in sabotaging one single company before. It is unprecedented. Yet Huawei is still alive and well and is getting 5G contracts in the world. If this is the kind of cost the US has to pay in getting one company destroyed (without being able to do it), think about how much more you would need to do the same for much more companies? For an entire industry? For a nation like China?

Note that I have not even started to tally the backlashing and consequences against the US and its interest of such sabotaging, in the short-term, medium- and long-term.

It took a once-in-three decades event like Russia invasion of Ukraine for the US to mobilize Europe to impose the kind of economic sanctions against Russia? But -- to borrow a catch phrase -- at what cost, to Europe and the US? Already some people have started to fantasizing doing the same on China, with 10x economy, 3x trades and so much farther away? They need a reality check.

It's taken a visit by the Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and naked military invasion threat by the US government for the US to change the stance of the little island nation of Solomon Islands on its security treaty with China ... not. And, by the way, how many Latin American countries have cut off diplomatic relationships with Taiwan in the last few years despite repeated US threats? And yet you're boasting about having every Latin American country in the US pocket?

The fact of the matter is, the US power and influence is rapidly declining throughout the world and in almost all spheres of affairs. It is desperately trying to stop or at least slow down the decline, resorting to all sorts means. Sure, it still holds some leverages in a few areas here and there. But they're not cost-free and without consequences. The countries that the US can still exert quite some pressure and influence are almost always those same vassal states, aka, "the rest of the world." We all know who they're.

Against China, what has the US accomplished so far since Trump? Since Obama's Pivot to Asia? Do we need to list them? What was the balance of power then? What is it now?

 

[european_guy]

You're getting carried away.

How much efforts and resources that US has invested in banning and destroying Huawei? What's the political, financial, economic, reputational cost that the US had to pay to get where they're? It had resorted to hostage-taking, but in the end still had to release Ms. Meng Wanzhou. The US has never, ever applied and invested so much resources and efforts in sabotaging one single company before. It is unprecedented. Yet Huawei is still alive and well and is getting 5G contracts in the world. If this is the kind of cost the US has to pay in getting one company destroyed (without being able to do it), think about how much more you would need to do the same for much more companies? For an entire industry? For a nation like China?

Note that I have not even started to tally the backlashing and consequences against the US and its interest of such sabotaging, in the short-term, medium- and long-term.

It took a once-in-three decades event like Russia invasion of Ukraine for the US to mobilize Europe to impose the kind of economic sanctions against Russia? But -- to borrow a catch phrase -- at what cost, to Europe and the US? Already some people have started to fantasizing doing the same on China, with 10x economy, 3x trades and so much farther away? They need a reality check.

It's taken a visit by the Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and naked military invasion threat by the US government for the US to change the stance of the little island nation of Solomon Islands on its security treaty with China ... not. And, by the way, how many Latin American countries have cut off diplomatic relationships with Taiwan in the last few years despite repeated US threats? And yet you're boasting about having every Latin American country in the US pocket?

The fact of the matter is, the US power and influence is rapidly declining throughout the world and in almost all spheres of affairs. It is desperately trying to stop or at least slow down the decline, resorting to all sorts means. Sure, it still holds some leverages in a few areas here and there. But they're not cost-free and without consequences. The countries that the US can still exert quite some pressure and influence are almost always those same vassal states, aka, "the rest of the world." We all know who they're.

Against China, what has the US accomplished so far since Trump? Since Obama's Pivot to Asia? Do we need to list them? What was the balance of power then? What is it now?

I agree to the points you raised, but I disagree on the conclusion. Indeed the US game against China is a long term one, long term like some decades long.

If you remember how it was seen China by the world just 5 years ago, you may acknowledge that now is much more difficult: in Asia for instance, Japan and Taiwanese people were not so confrontational as they are today, and now that new South Korea's PM seems to be a US friend, also SK will go along that route. And US is already working on the next targets: Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore. etc. I even don't mention Australia. In all these countries the positive sentiment toward China only lowered in the last 5 years, and of course this is not by chance. India is another big and IMO critically important country where people's sentiment is more negative now than 5 years ago.

And this is Asia, if we move to Europe, where I live, I can tell you that although there is not an anti-China sentiment, as US would love it to be, anyhow the way in which people see China has worsened in the last 5 years, although it is still much better compared to anglophone countries and also to some Asian country. Ukrainian war has also greatly improved US power on Europe, so things will be even more difficult in the future.

If we look at the past to foresee the future, we can see that we are moving toward world's political blocks, and this is bad for the world, it is good for US though.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I agree to the points you raised, but I disagree on the conclusion. Indeed the US game against China is a long term one, long term like some decades long.

I don't think so. The US deals in election cycles. It seeks short term gain to parade in campaigns, and if it causes further distress down the road, that's the next guy's problem. Challenging China in trade and tech are testament to this type of thinking. China is the country that plans in decades, and it's all about self-development.

If you remember how it was seen China by the world just 5 years ago, you may acknowledge that now is much more difficult: in Asia for instance, Japan and Taiwanese people were not so confrontational as they are today, and now that new South Korea's PM seems to be a US friend, also SK will go along that route. And US is already working on the next targets: Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore. etc. I even don't mention Australia. In all these countries the positive sentiment toward China only lowered in the last 5 years, and of course this is not by chance. India is another big and IMO critically important country where people's sentiment is more negative now than 5 years ago.

And this is Asia, if we move to Europe, where I live, I can tell you that although there is not an anti-China sentiment, as US would love it to be, anyhow the way in which people see China has worsened in the last 5 years, although it is still much better compared to anglophone countries and also to some Asian country. Ukrainian war has also greatly improved US power on Europe, so things will be even more difficult in the future.

Things get more difficult the more of a challenge you are to the hegemon... until you defeat him when things get much much easier. America's focus on global PR wars against China are not the actions of a confident superpower, rather the actions of one who sees the limits of his own power against a rival which he anticipates can overtake him. Anyone who can outgrow a competitor uses that as the primary means of victory. This floundering by the US only shows that Chinese power has gotten to the point where the US feels it cannot deal with it alone. Those other clown countries can at best play a minor henchman role, but in the end, it is China's giant growth potential driven by a massive population of STEM-focused ambitious people that will make it too much to contain.

If we look at the past to foresee the future, we can see that we are moving toward world's political blocks, and this is bad for the world, it is good for US though.

I don't think so. The US used to be the sole hegemon. To break the world into political blocks essentially means creating blocks that have broken out of America's control. That is not good for it and even more not good for it is what is mentioned above.

 

[56860]

I agree to the points you raised, but I disagree on the conclusion. Indeed the US game against China is a long term one, long term like some decades long.

Merely two decades ago US facilitated China's accession to the WTO. A decade ago Islam was the number 1 enemy. It really wasn't until 2015 that you saw China bad coming into the American consciousness, and only in the last couple of years has that rhetoric been ramped up. I completely disagree.

 

[Topazchen]

Is this still a semiconductor thread ?

 

[ansy1968]

I agree to the points you raised, but I disagree on the conclusion. Indeed the US game against China is a long term one, long term like some decades long.

If you remember how it was seen China by the world just 5 years ago, you may acknowledge that now is much more difficult: in Asia for instance, Japan and Taiwanese people were not so confrontational as they are today, and now that new South Korea's PM seems to be a US friend, also SK will go along that route. And US is already working on the next targets: Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore. etc. I even don't mention Australia. In all these countries the positive sentiment toward China only lowered in the last 5 years, and of course this is not by chance. India is another big and IMO critically important country where people's sentiment is more negative now than 5 years ago.

@european_guy bro I live in this region, and I can say the China threat is a fad. Having a constant dose of propaganda has its own pros and cons, BUT long term as China rose in prominence we will accept the inevitable, cause the evidences point otherwise, In our history China never invaded us especially during her peak Hegemonic days. Right now there are changes happening on the ground, with the BBM massive win that narrative are being challenge, with the Ukraine War the people in the Global South had a major Rethink.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Is this still a semiconductor thread ?

Been a bit off-topic recently, yes, but ultimately when it comes to semiconductors we can't ignore the elephant in the room (US sanctioning and stopping China from getting EUV, basically started this race, and a big component of this thread.).

So at the end of the day, talking about US hegemony as well as it actions (sanctions, calling up allies etc.) will eventually spillover and sometimes appear on this thread I say (it is still mostly about semiconductors though, and it has a lot of good info).

-----

I agree to the points you raised, but I disagree on the conclusion. Indeed the US game against China is a long term one, long term like some decades long.

Yes, but the US has already made some blunders, moreover longterm blunders (semiconductor ban only spurring China to become selfsufficient, there's a good chance we see 100% domestic EUV sometime between 2025 to 2030s).

If you remember how it was seen China by the world just 5 years ago, you may acknowledge that now is much more difficult: in Asia for instance, Japan and Taiwanese people were not so confrontational as they are today, and now that new South Korea's PM seems to be a US friend, also SK will go along that route. And US is already working on the next targets: Vietnam, Philippine, Singapore. etc. I even don't mention Australia. In all these countries the positive sentiment toward China only lowered in the last 5 years, and of course this is not by chance. India is another big and IMO critically important country where people's sentiment is more negative now than 5 years ago.

Australia has basically always been part of the anglo-saxon world, so it's a given that they would be on US' side. Japan and SK not a surprise either, since they got actual US military bases on their land (moreover, the presence is pretty big as well).

But getting anyone else on their side? lol.
At most Singapore, but even then their influence and impact will be minimal. For say Vietnam when Harris visited, they basically immediately had diplomats (I think Hanoi directly called up Beijing) tell China that their relationship won't change, and they won't host foreign military bases etc.
As it stands, don't expect any other Asian countries to stand against China (they will try and seek neutrality), maybe Philippines, but with the recent election, the US might need to do a color revolution, but they don't have a 100% succes rate, especially in recent years.

And this is Asia, if we move to Europe, where I live, I can tell you that although there is not an anti-China sentiment, as US would love it to be, anyhow the way in which people see China has worsened in the last 5 years, although it is still much better compared to anglophone countries and also to some Asian country. Ukrainian war has also greatly improved US power on Europe, so things will be even more difficult in the future.

General anti-China sentiment around the world has risen partly due to Covid but also massively due to the anti-China propaganda these last few years, and as the western world, with the US leading, controls a lot of the media, they been able to churn it out a lot.

If we look at the past to foresee the future, we can see that we are moving toward world's political blocks, and this is bad for the world, it is good for US though.

I'm not fully sure if that is gonna be the case, I suppose we see.

 

[56860]

Is this still a semiconductor thread ?

Yes it is; separating semiconductors from geopolitics is impossible.

 

[tphuang]

There areany reasons why china has seen it's reputation go down. I think covid is still the number one reason. A lot of these factors should fade over time. But I think we need to stop blaming all this drop in popularity to USA. As china grows, becomes the world factory and deindustrialized much of first world country, there will be backlash against Chinese power. Many western countries do not like to see Asian countries eclipse them. It happened to Japan in the 80s and it's happening to china now.

If you follow NEV market, you will see how European automakers are having a hard time evn acknowledging that byd and nio are killing them. And I see this as a threat to Chinese high tech company everywhere they go. Can these formerly leading western countries accept having china being the largest high tech producers. It's one thing to leave cheap electronics and clothing production to Asia. It's quite another thing for an Asian country to dominate the production of semiconductors, renewable energy and EV. That's why china needs to cultivate it's strength in Asia, latin America and Africa. Help these countries also develop their hard tech industry.

I don't think china will face bans everywhere in Europe. After all, Europe itself is divided with different priorities. Do you think countries like Poland and hungry are going to be against china building high tech factories in their country to sell to rest of the Europe? China will be fine. This level of paranoia because Huawei got banned by a few countries is not helpful. It just needs to develop its own industries and no worry what others might do.

 

[56860]

There areany reasons why china has seen it's reputation go down. I think covid is still the number one reason. A lot of these factors should fade over time. But I think we need to stop blaming all this drop in popularity to USA. As china grows, becomes the world factory and deindustrialized much of first world country, there will be backlash against Chinese power. Many western countries do not like to see Asian countries eclipse them. It happened to Japan in the 80s and it's happening to china now.

If you follow NEV market, you will see how European automakers are having a hard time evn acknowledging that byd and nio are killing them. And I see this as a threat to Chinese high tech company everywhere they go. Can these formerly leading western countries accept having china being the largest high tech producers. It's one thing to leave cheap electronics and clothing production to Asia. It's quite another thing for an Asian country to dominate the production of semiconductors, renewable energy and EV. That's why china needs to cultivate it's strength in Asia, latin America and Africa. Help these countries also develop their hard tech industry.

I don't think china will face bans everywhere in Europe. After all, Europe itself is divided with different priorities. Do you think countries like Poland and hungry are going to be against china building high tech factories in their country to sell to rest of the Europe? China will be fine. This level of paranoia because Huawei got banned by a few countries is not helpful. It just needs to develop its own industries and no worry what others might do.

Man it's gonna be a tough pill to swallow when barely 30 years ago Beijing and Shanghai were filled with bicycles with not a single automobile in sight, to seeing the EV market dominated by Chinese brands today. I can see why the Anglos are coping, seething and crying.