09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

Are there any estimation for total production capacity of the new Huludao infrastructure? e.g. is 4x095 per year possible around 2025?

There's a difference between "total production capacity" versus "production rate by XYZ year".

We can visually identify how much floor space the new facility has overall.
We've known for a while now that the two new assembly halls have a lot of floor room.

The first/eastern hall has six sets of 7.34m rails which are sized for SSNs, and if we take the central two tracks of each set, we get three 13.55m rail sets which are sized for SSBNs. The length of the eastern hall is 288m. Keep in mind a usual SSN is usually just over 110m long, allowing them to "line up" two SSNs in one rail set.
In other words, in theory, it has enough floor space to simultaneously accommodate twelve SSN sized submarines with enough length to spare for module assembly work.
Alternatively, they can work on one SSBN's (or one and a half SSBN's) worth of modules in place of four SSNs.

The second/southern hall has "only" four sets of 7.34m rails sized for SSNs, and they are spaced in a manner where they do not have 13.55m rail set availability. Which is to say, they are almost certainly not intended to build SSBN sized submarines, and may exclusively be for SSN sized submarines. But even then, this southern hall is some 310m long, allowing them to "line up" two SSNs in one rail set.
In other words, in theory, the southern hall has enough floor space to simultaneously accommodate eight SSN sized submarines with enough length to spare for module assembly work.



But perhaps an image is the best way to demonstrate it.
This is an satellite pic of the two new halls, taken at 810m visual altitude.
I've overlaid images of Virginia class SSNs and Ohio class SSBNs taken at 810m visual altitude, over it.
Basically, it speaks for itself.






In other words, if we are only counting SSNs -- in theory, the eastern and southern assembly halls together can accommodate a maximum of twenty SSN sized submarines at the same time.
If you are considering SSBN + SSN production -- then the eastern hall can accommodate 1.5 worth's of SSBN modules, or four SSN sized submarines in each of its three main production ways (meaning you can have 1.5 SSBN modules and eight SSN sized submarines going at the same time in the eastern hall), as well as the eight SSN sized submarines of the southern hall.
So you can mix and match.

In short -- they have a lot of final assembly floor space.....
But we don't know how much of it will be running at full steam by 2025. This is a lot of potential production capacity that will have to be spooled up.
And we also don't know if they will end up using the maximum theoretical floor space in the way I described. It might be that it is more efficient to have some more longitudinal clearance space to work on a single submarine faster than simultaneously work on two submarines slower. Who knows.

In terms of horizontal clearance though, the eastern hall should have enough space for SSNs (see Astute and Virginia production pics below in their assembly halls), and the southern hall will easily have more than enough space for SSNs.

 

[SEAD]

There's a difference between "total production capacity" versus "production rate by XYZ year".

We can visually identify how much floor space the new facility has overall.
We've known for a while now that the two new assembly halls have a lot of floor room.

The first/eastern hall has six sets of 7.34m rails which are sized for SSNs, and if we take the central two tracks of each set, we get three 13.55m rail sets which are sized for SSBNs. The length of the eastern hall is 288m. Keep in mind a usual SSN is usually just over 110m long, allowing them to "line up" two SSNs in one rail set.
In other words, in theory, it has enough floor space to simultaneously accommodate twelve SSN sized submarines with enough length to spare for module assembly work.
Alternatively, they can work on one SSBN's (or one and a half SSBN's) worth of modules in place of four SSNs.

The second/southern hall has "only" four sets of 7.34m rails sized for SSNs, and they are spaced in a manner where they do not have 13.55m rail set availability. Which is to say, they are almost certainly not intended to build SSBN sized submarines, and may exclusively be for SSN sized submarines. But even then, this southern hall is some 310m long, allowing them to "line up" two SSNs in one rail set.
In other words, in theory, the southern hall has enough floor space to simultaneously accommodate eight SSN sized submarines with enough length to spare for module assembly work.



But perhaps an image is the best way to demonstrate it.
This is an satellite pic of the two new halls, taken at 810m visual altitude.
I've overlaid images of Virginia class SSNs and Ohio class SSBNs taken at 810m visual altitude, over it.
Basically, it speaks for itself.

View attachment 88363




In other words, if we are only counting SSNs -- in theory, the eastern and southern assembly halls together can accommodate a maximum of twenty SSN sized submarines at the same time.
If you are considering SSBN + SSN production -- then the eastern hall can accommodate 1.5 worth's of SSBN modules, or four SSN sized submarines in each of its three main production ways (meaning you can have 1.5 SSBN modules and eight SSN sized submarines going at the same time in the eastern hall), as well as the eight SSN sized submarines of the southern hall.
So you can mix and match.

In short -- they have a lot of final assembly floor space.....
But we don't know how much of it will be running at full steam by 2025. This is a lot of potential production capacity that will have to be spooled up.
And we also don't know if they will end up using the maximum theoretical floor space in the way I described. It might be that it is more efficient to have some more longitudinal clearance space to work on a single submarine faster than simultaneously work on two submarines slower. Who knows.

In terms of horizontal clearance though, the eastern hall should have enough space for SSNs (see Astute and Virginia production pics below in their assembly halls), and the southern hall will easily have more than enough space for SSNs.

View attachment 88365

View attachment 88364

Thx a lot! Just one more question: are there any certain relationships between the rail width and submarine hull diameter? How wide can a 7.34m rail built SSN, is 11m possible?

 

[Blitzo]

Thx a lot! Just one more question: are there any certain relationships between the rail width and submarine hull diameter? How wide can a 7.34m rail built SSN, is 11m possible?

Yes, a 7.34m rail is absolutely able to support a cradle that is much wider than itself.
Rail lines at other shipyards in the world are not dissimilar.
At Barrow (where Astutes are produced), they have rail width of 7.12m that they use for SSN rail cradles





At Newport (where Virginias are produced), they have a rail width of 8.12m for VAs.






.... and in a satellite image of Bohai recently, we could see what looks like a SSN sized hull section on a cradle on the 7.34m rail set

 

[Blitzo]

Here's an image overlay of the submarine scaled to GE imagery showing us the size of the SSN relative to the assembly halls.

First image is demonstrating accurate scaling.

Second image is self explanatory. Note how the 7.34m rail lines on the barge matches the 7.34 rail lines exiting the assembly halls.

 

[tphuang]

Right, okay so it's just the way they described it in the podcast. That's fine, I just wanted to clarify where the "generations" came from.

It's a good way to think about what level of improvement they are looking at. Shilao podcast specific mentioned skip generation when it comes to Type 095. Which to me means they are looking for a late sturgeon class/early LA class to Seawolf class type of improvement. And they used the phrase "Guodu" to describe 093B. I'm not sure the right English phrase for that is. I specifically think of it as H-6K to H-20 type of improvement.

I think 09V could be longer than the 09IIIB family, but why do you think it would be wider?

Astute class is wider than Trafalgar class.
Yasen/Akula class are wider than Victor class. Akula is a little wider than Yasen, but Yasen is also no longer double hull
Seawolf class is wider than LA class. Now, Virginia is as wide as LA class, but the original ones probably weren't as quiet as seawolf and the more recent ones had the benefit of many years of stealth technology improvement.

If they are making the type of improvement I think they are moving. I'd expect 095 to be wider than 093 and not be double hull anymore. Something like 12m wide like seawolf class and maybe 120m longer with VLS farm and 200 kw reactor is what I'm thinking of.

 

[Blitzo]

It's a good way to think about what level of improvement they are looking at. Shilao podcast specific mentioned skip generation when it comes to Type 095. Which to me means they are looking for a late sturgeon class/early LA class to Seawolf class type of improvement. And they used the phrase "Guodu" to describe 093B. I'm not sure the right English phrase for that is. I specifically think of it as H-6K to H-20 type of improvement.

I don't mind that they used it as a shorthand metric.

Astute class is wider than Trafalgar class.
Yasen/Akula class are wider than Victor class. Akula is a little wider than Yasen, but Yasen is also no longer double hull
Seawolf class is wider than LA class. Now, Virginia is as wide as LA class, but the original ones probably weren't as quiet as seawolf and the more recent ones had the benefit of many years of stealth technology improvement.

If they are making the type of improvement I think they are moving. I'd expect 095 to be wider than 093 and not be double hull anymore. Something like 12m wide like seawolf class and maybe 120m longer with VLS farm and 200 kw reactor is what I'm thinking of.

So there's two things at play here -- pressure hull diameter growth, and absolute pressure hull diameter requirement.

For pressure hull diameter growth -- yes it's not abnormal for successive SSN generations to have wider pressure hulls. But in the case of 09III family to 09V, we expect 09V to be a single hull or hybrid single/double hull submarine.
Which is to say, that it may have a growth in pressure hull diameter while still having the same overall hull diameter compared to 09III -- or it might even have a slightly smaller overall hull diameter while still having a larger pressure hull diameter.


For absolute pressure hull diameter requirement, this is a matter of mission requirement.
Seawolf and Yasen are both very large diameter, high performance submarines for deep ocean, with heavy torpedo armament.
However both Seawolf and Yasen were/will be succeeded by smaller SSNs that are somewhat more affordable but equally technologically advanced. Seawolf by Virginia, Yasen by Laika (though who knows when the latter will emerge).
I suppose the question we are asking for 09V, is whether it will be the PLAN's equivalent of Seawolf class or Virginia class or Astute class in terms of hull diameter and physical parameters.
(I also assume you mean 200MW reactor rather than kW?)



..... in any case, my overall point is that we may see 09V to have an overall hull diameter that is very similar to the 09III family, yet by virtue of being a single/hybrid hull design, would have a much wider pressure hull than the 09III family.
It's not impossible for 09V to be even wider than that -- to have a pressure hull diameter similar to Seawolf or Yasen, but that's a category of SSN that is aiming even higher than the likes of Virginia or Astute by virtue of physical parameters, armament weight, speed/performance.

 

[tphuang]

I don't mind that they used it as a shorthand metric.




So there's two things at play here -- pressure hull diameter growth, and absolute pressure hull diameter requirement.

For pressure hull diameter growth -- yes it's not abnormal for successive SSN generations to have wider pressure hulls. But in the case of 09III family to 09V, we expect 09V to be a single hull or hybrid single/double hull submarine.
Which is to say, that it may have a growth in pressure hull diameter while still having the same overall hull diameter compared to 09III -- or it might even have a slightly smaller overall hull diameter while still having a larger pressure hull diameter.


For absolute pressure hull diameter requirement, this is a matter of mission requirement.
Seawolf and Yasen are both very large diameter, high performance submarines for deep ocean, with heavy torpedo armament.
However both Seawolf and Yasen were/will be succeeded by smaller SSNs that are somewhat more affordable but equally technologically advanced. Seawolf by Virginia, Yasen by Laika (though who knows when the latter will emerge).
I suppose the question we are asking for 09V, is whether it will be the PLAN's equivalent of Seawolf class or Virginia class or Astute class in terms of hull diameter and physical parameters.
(I also assume you mean 200MW reactor rather than kW?)



..... in any case, my overall point is that we may see 09V to have an overall hull diameter that is very similar to the 09III family, yet by virtue of being a single/hybrid hull design, would have a much wider pressure hull than the 09III family.
It's not impossible for 09V to be even wider than that -- to have a pressure hull diameter similar to Seawolf or Yasen, but that's a category of SSN that is aiming even higher than the likes of Virginia or Astute by virtue of physical parameters, armament weight, speed/performance.

Yes, 200 MW. Again, I'm of the opinion that going to single/hybrid hull alone for 095 is not sufficient. I think they need to go for wider pressure hull diameter to make up for the likely difference in stealth technology between the latest Virginia boat and what China is likely to have. That's what the Russians did with Yasen class and it is supposedly close to Virginia class in stealth performance. And a 200 MW reactor will allow China to have such a large SSN. You clearly disagree, but that doesn't make my opinion on here wrong. We will see.

 

[Maikeru]

I'm looking at a tweet by @horobeyo (no idea how credible s/he is) claiming the 'new' sub (if that is what it is) is in fact 12.3 to 12.6m in diameter with a presumed 10m+ pressure hull diameter. Wider than an 094 at 11.4m. Any idea if this is correct? If so we're looking at a new class.

Sorry can't post links to twitter right now.

 

[KevinG]

Russia is also in this boat somewhat, given its weak overall industrial base (despite some military technology standouts) and deficient economic system during the Soviet period. The US managed just fine to have both a large, advanced SSN fleet and an equally large and advanced surface fleet. In this regard, the US is the only country in China's weight class.

Agree with you on this one, during the USSR time, the military research facility were heavily concentrated in Russia, and manufacturing sites were heavily concentrated in Ukraine, after the collapse of USSR, the ability to develop new weapons are greatly impaired.

 

[abenomics12345]

I'm looking at a tweet by @horobeyo (no idea how credible s/he is) claiming the 'new' sub (if that is what it is) is in fact 12.3 to 12.6m in diameter with a presumed 10m+ pressure hull diameter. Wider than an 094 at 11.4m. Any idea if this is correct? If so we're looking at a new class.

Sorry can't post links to twitter right now.

I saw @Bltizo engage with that person on Twitter seems credible enough?