Ukrainian War Developments

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Zichan

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My take on the Tu-141.

I'll be honest it's quite small RCS wise. 0.38 sqm. and launch position from Western Ukraine seems very likely

That strikes me as surprisingly small.

For comparison, the Tomahawk cruise missile is often quoted to have a frontal RCS of 0.2m2. Compared to the Tu-141 it has less than half its length, 50% less wingspan with much smaller wings and weighs 5 times less. I would wager the Tu-141's frontal RCS is on the order of 1m2.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
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Technicals have pretty much become the modern equivalent of Mongol horse archers.

Tanks are the Cavalry Archer.
Lancers are Mech infantry.
Catapults are Air Power.
... according to theory.

More countries should start looking into them especially with how easy and cheap they are to manufacture.

Technicals have always been part of armies, but they are only relevant in small-scale battles in constricted terrain.

They can't survive in the open against a combined arms force.

File:JEEP M151 TOW Missile.jpg - Wikimedia Commons


TOW Missile Shooting – Military Humvee TOW Missile Carrier - YouTube
 
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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
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That strikes me as surprisingly small.

For comparison, the Tomahawk cruise missile is often quoted to have a frontal RCS of 0.2m2. Compared to the Tu-141 it has less than half its length, 50% less wingspan with much smaller wings and weighs 5 times less. I would wager the Tu-141's frontal RCS is on the order of 1m2.

Well the most important thing is to know what is the frequency where the RCS data is taken. in S-band it is that 0.38 sqm. But in another frequency, the value could be diffrent.
 
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ArmchairAnalyst

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Only Russian absorption or total annexation is a 'permanent solution'. A "paper treaty" formalizing neutrality is a useless formality as nations can break international law anytime they want. It's only 'legally-binding' to extent either party respects the treaty. Russia needs a permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy, where a paper treaty is as good as toilet paper in this day and age as nobody respects the international law anymore.

Using this logic, Russia should have invaded Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania to forestall "long term loss of strategic autonomy" because NATO troops directly bordered Kaliningrad and region near Saints Petersburg, and even closer to Moscow than Ukrainian border in 2003.

BUT.... Russia was weak back then. Now it's stronger. So it's ultimately a "Might makes Right" argument right, not some 5D chess strategic calculus about losing autonomy, Russia lost autonomy when Baltic states joined and NATO shared a border with Russia in 2003.



Sometimes nations do things against their economic interest because of perceived security interests. So it's ironic that you say US is throwing good money after bad, but somehow Russia is getting good money for a useless paper treaty neutrality. Russia needs to annex or install a puppet regime to make all these sanctions worth it. A paper neutrality treaty is a useless formality without regime change. Russia needs to topple the regime to have permanent long-term security.
But a treaty with a puppet regime won't be recognised by many nations and least the Ukrainians themselves.
Regime change will only be a short term solution, more fuel tor instability (inside in Russia as well) and a few years or some decades down the road, a resentful and independent Ukraine will remerge. In the meantime, most neighbouring countries will be constantly reminded of the very real threat and become more and more antagonistic towards Russia.
I might be wrong but that's usually how these things worked out in history.
Putin might not care though.
 
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Abominable

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Only Russian absorption or total annexation is a 'permanent solution'. A "paper treaty" formalizing neutrality is a useless formality as nations can break international law anytime they want. It's only 'legally-binding' to extent either party respects the treaty. Russia needs a permanent veto over Ukraine foreign policy, where a paper treaty is as good as toilet paper in this day and age as nobody respects the international law anymore.

Using this logic, Russia should have invaded Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, and Romania to forestall "long term loss of strategic autonomy" because NATO troops directly bordered Kaliningrad and region near Saints Petersburg, and even closer to Moscow than Ukrainian border in 2003.

BUT.... Russia was weak back then. Now it's stronger. So it's ultimately a "Might makes Right" argument right, not some 5D chess strategic calculus about losing autonomy, Russia lost autonomy when Baltic states joined and NATO shared a border with Russia in 2003.



Sometimes nations do things against their economic interest because of perceived security interests. So it's ironic that you say US is throwing good money after bad, but somehow Russia is getting good money for a useless paper treaty neutrality. Russia needs to annex or install a puppet regime to make all these sanctions worth it. A paper neutrality treaty is a useless formality without regime change. Russia needs to topple the regime to have permanent long-term security.

There are other options to annexation though. Keep fighting until the Ukrainian government agrees to an unconditional surrender. Then impose the following:

1. Ukrainian acceptance of full responsibly for the start of the war with or without reparations.
2. A partition of the country with Russian speaking portion of Ukraine either becoming independent or integrating into Russia. Russia will decide where the border will be.
3. No airforce, no navy, no air defence. A numerically limited army with no tracked vehicles. No NATO.
4. Denazification. Prosecution of Nazi war criminals under Russian law, removal of statues, and renaming streets glorifying WW2 nazi collaborators. Make display of Nazi insignia a criminal offence like it is in Germany today.
5. Dismantling of all nuclear powerplants. A no nuclear policy in the west, with no foreign biolabs.
6. After all of that is complied with a full Russian withdrawal, free and fair democratic elections with UN observers with no Russian interference. Even Zelensky could come back from America or Israel and run the country again if he wanted to.
7. Russia reserves the right to intervene if any of the above are broken.

All of the above would be perfectly legal according to international law and would have precedent - it's a mixture of the outcomes Germany was given by allied forces after WW 1 & 2. It's actually more lenient as there still are American bases in Germany to this day. There would have been Russian bases too if Gorbachev didn't withdraw them.

There's a few advantages to this over just annexing the whole country. First it means Russia doesn't have to pay for rebuilding of all of Ukraine, let America do that. Secondly as the dispute was resolved bilaterally, there would be no justification for international sanctions. Finally it also means Russia doesn't need to deal with the self hating wannabe American Ukrainians, why would anyone want to share a country with them? I thought pro-colonial HKers were bad, but they have nothing on the Ukrainians.
 

FADH1791

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Apparently Ukrainian forces are running out drones. On the matter of cities Russian forces seem to focus on one city at a time. It took US forces a whole month to clear Fallujah. For Russia they are attacking large cities with a well entrenched enemy that has atgms and in the case of Khariv some armor. Look at Mauripol they say it may take 7 more days to control the city. The Russians are winning but this war is going to bloody and slow. Urban warfare is very hard and will take a long ass time. That’s why Russia will do the same tactic they did in Syria. Encircle the cities, taking key highways, bombard them with air strikes, artillery and missiles to soften defenses then attack the cities in multiple axes to overwhelm the defenders. This is the same tactic they did in Grozny. It will be very very ugly and horrific.
 
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