Ukrainian War Developments

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MortyandRick

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"The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours."

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All the sources of this article comes from the Ukrainian defense force Facebook site. Talk about objective and non biased.

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LawLeadsToPeace

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lube

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All the sources of this article comes from the Ukrainian defense force Facebook site. Talk about objective and non biased.

View attachment 84970
There's no other way to analyze things on the ground other than using Ukrainian claims as a basis.

It's fine as an thought exercise, but some people here are reading it too uncritically. No thought or brain needed.
 

Jingle Bells

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Yes, because if Russia doesn't install a puppet regime in Ukraine or atleast annex big territory, then all you are left with a "paper neutral" independent Ukraine that still hates your guts and can still conspire with West in future. Is Russia going to use external force everytime Ukraine is not obedient? A puppet regime is necessary to guarantee Russian interests is priority from within Ukraine without direct Russian intervention.

I mean the capital. It's so close to Belarus border that you can blitzkrieg to surround it and demand a ceasefire. Not the entire landmass, too large.

I mean immediately surround the capital and demand a ceasefire. Not blitzkrieg the entire country, just the capital. Russia attacked along the entire border but it's main focus was always the capital region to strangle the head of govt and reduce civilian casualties with immediate ceasefire.
1. A so-called "Puppet Government" never works, unless Russia is willing to station troops in Ukraine for the long term to keep the puppet in place. If Russia can't even buy enough PGM for her own aero-space force to use lavishly (as witnessed in this war), what do you think an occupation force would cost? It will be a true "人民战争的汪洋大海".

2. As long as the West is NOT directly involved, there will be NO meaningful ceasefire for Russia and Ukraine. Because the West will simply keep up the sanctions. Even if the Ukrainian government of Zelensky relents and agrees to capitulate to Russia, the West could still treat his government as either illegitimate or "held hostage". The sanctions will extend to Ukraine, exasperate the economy, create more social instabilities which will only take a toll on Russia.

3. Putin's plan was flexible enough to begin with, they tried for a quick win, ONLY with the assumption of a low level of will to resist from both the military and the civilians in Ukraine. If that turned out to be not true, then a quick win would have been impossible even if Russian forces are much larger and much more capable and advanced. Because this war is not just a pure tactical war, it is also a political war. (Technically, all war are political). The US's wars in the Middle East only seem more "successful" and "mighty", because the countries she fought had enough internal problems and a lack of modern unified national identity. (In other words, Middle Eastern countries that the US fought in the last 20 years weren't technically "Nation States" (民族国家) , by strict Western Sociological Standards).

4. Even if Putin was able to "shock and awe" Ukraine in a successful "blitzkrieg" (whatever you meant by that), there WILL be subsequent problems with policing and occupying the defeated Ukraine. Because you can't defeat and conquer the collective identity of the Ukrainian people, nor is Putin planning on doing so, nor does Putin know how to do so.

In conclusion, realistically speaking, Putin's only meaningful goal, is to destroy Ukraine's defense/heavy high-tech industries, destroy the fighting capabilities of the current ultra-nationalist (extreme right) fighting forces of Ukraine, AND help set up as many REAL (well organized and with a integral population base) separatists subregions (aka. "people's republics") in Ukraine.

Other than these three goals., everything else is NOT realistic.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

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Wow. Are they that stupid? Seriously, it seem like common sense lol.

looking at the article more. It seems like they were there before the invasion.
Considering the fact that there are members here and many analysts claiming that China will get its a** kicked by the US due to the US’s combat experience in the Middle East, I don’t think it is common sense.
 

Temstar

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Журналист Владимир Бойко сообщает, что бойцы полка полиции «Миротворец» расстреляли автомобиль «Тойота», который не остановился на блокпосту.
За рулем был, по информации Бойко, Дмитрий Демьяненко, экс-заместитель начальника Главного управления СБУ в Киеве и Киевской области.
Это произошло сегодня около 18:00 в Дарницком районе Киева

Journalist Vladimir Boyko reports that fighters of the Mirotvorets police regiment shot a Toyota car that did not stop at the checkpoint. According to Boyko, Dmitry Demyanenko, a former deputy head of the SBU's Main Directorate in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, was behind the wheel. It happened today around 18:00 in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv

Here is the car afterwards

Looks like all is not well inside Kiev.
 

Phead128

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1. A so-called "Puppet Government" never works, unless Russia is willing to station troops in Ukraine for the long term to keep the puppet in place. If Russia can't even buy enough PGM for her own aero-space force to use lavishly (as witnessed in this war), what do you think an occupation force would cost? It will be a true "人民战争的汪洋大海".

2. As long as the West is NOT directly involved, there will be NO meaningful ceasefire for Russia and Ukraine. Because the West will simply keep up the sanctions. Even if the Ukrainian government of Zelensky relents and agrees to capitulate to Russia, the West could still treat his government as either illegitimate or "held hostage". The sanctions will extend to Ukraine, exasperate the economy, create more social instabilities which will only take a toll on Russia.

3. Putin's plan was flexible enough to begin with, they tried for a quick win, ONLY with the assumption of a low level of will to resist from both the military and the civilians in Ukraine. If that turned out to be not true, then a quick win would have been impossible even if Russian forces are much larger and much more capable and advanced. Because this war is not just a pure tactical war, it is also a political war. (Technically, all war are political). The US's wars in the Middle East only seem more "successful" and "mighty", because the countries she fought had enough internal problems and a lack of modern unified national identity. (In other words, Middle Eastern countries that the US fought in the last 20 years weren't technically "Nation States" (民族国家) , by strict Western Sociological Standards).

4. Even if Putin was able to "shock and awe" Ukraine in a successful "blitzkrieg" (whatever you meant by that), there WILL be subsequent problems with policing and occupying the defeated Ukraine. Because you can't defeat and conquer the collective identity of the Ukrainian people, nor is Putin planning on doing so, nor does Putin know how to do so.

In conclusion, realistically speaking, Putin's only meaningful goal, is to destroy Ukraine's defense/heavy high-tech industries, destroy the fighting capabilities of the current ultra-nationalist (extreme right) fighting forces of Ukraine, AND help set up as many REAL (well organized and with a integral population base) separatists subregions (aka. "people's republics") in Ukraine.

Other than these three goals., everything else is NOT realistic.
I agree 100% on all your points. So for your last point on subregions are you referring to a "People's Republic of Eastern Ukraine" (East of Dnieper river) that is defacto independent puppet that invites Russian troops as "peacekeepers"? Or are you only referring to the small areas of DNR/LNR? I think only DNR/LNR is really not worth all this sanctions, but partitioning Ukraine into West Ukraine vs East Ukraine (independent puppet regime) along Dneiper river is a great prize and worthy of all the sanctions. West Ukraine is rendered a failed state without access to Black Sea coast, while Eastern Ukraine can be defacto Russian ally.
 
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