Ukrainian War Developments

[sheogorath]

So many of its neighbours really, really hate Russia:

Oh, don't worry the feeling is pretty much the same with regards the US south of the Rio Grande, and many of us will throw a party when bombs start falling on US suburbs, even if it means the end of the world for the rest of us.

Seems they were bluffing, "we are a leaving!...but not really", and this is probably going to be the case for most sanctions down the road.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501152484047347713

 

[Sardaukar20]

Smuggle an aircraft it's a fantasy. An aircraft needs a lot of support. Even more if you have to assemble it on site. I'm saying this because of experience.
Where are you going to operate from?. An airbase with it's runways destroyed by ballistic missiles attack?.
The only way to operate an aircraft In a clandestine way is like the swedish air force, from a road. But those in Sweden are build taking into account the operation of an aircraft and besides that the swedish desing their aircraft to operate them from roads with minimum support. The MIG29 is not design to operate on such manner. I don't believe there is a road with supporting structures to conceil aircrafts and equipment capable of supporting this type of operation in Ukraine. I believe the Ukrainian forces needs drones, like the Turkish ones not migs29. If they try to pull something like that it's just a matter of time before de RuAF bomb the operation.
But let's assume for a second they were able to assemble 20 Mig29. What they can do against a contested airspace full of interceptors and extremely capable anti aircraft weaponry?. Do you believe that they can achieve air supremacy with a clandestine air force based on a couple of obsolete mig29? Why the outcome would be different than before when they had a descent amount of Su27/mig29/Su25/Su24 and AA defenses?

They need to put a stop to this madness. They lost. They have to come to terms with reality. I know it's not easy to accept that a "foreign" Agressor has beaten you, but a good commanding officer knows when to rise a white flag. Specially when you are fighting among civilians. You have to think in the common citizen that despite the war has to keep on living. Has to go to work, plan their futures etc. I hope they realized this before the Russians loose their patience and pull a "Grozny" on Kiev or Kharkov or the entire country. NATO, UK, Biden etc, they don't give a them about the common ukranian citizen. Macron is right, Russia deserves respect. Security in Europe will be achieve with Rusia integrated into Europe. Look at the whole world economy for a second. Look what is going on with commodities prices. They are in their highest historical prices. Even food. And when food increase its value more people starves around the world. Sometimes I miss Trump pragmatism.

Agreed with your point on the I'm practicality of Ukraine operating a clandestine airforce. The logistics is messy, and too visible to the enemy to pull off.

On why the Ukrainian leadership want to go down the road of more bloodshed with Russia. This is how I see it. Large portions of the Ukrainian leadership, are either open Nazis or closet Nazis. They view the Russians as 'untermenschen'. Therefore they cannot accept getting beaten by Russia. They intend to fight Russia with as many Ukrainians they could throw at them, in hopes that Russia eventually tires out, or NATO intervenes. I have a strong feeling that they want to pull off a 'Battle of Berlin' against the Russians in Kiev and other major cities.

On your point of missing the pragmatism of Trump. Here I have to disagree. There was nothing pragmatic about Trump. While he confesses his admiration for Putin, he had also scrapped the INF treaty with Russia, impose more sanctions, and launched CAATSA. Trump was even worse on China and Iran. Openly hostile to both. We don't need to discuss what he did to them here. But don't get me wrong, Biden is no better. In fact they are both just different faces on the same American monster.

 

[foofy]

Malaysia wellcome Russian tourists *Union pay*

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"Apart from that, we are also trying to target tourists from countries like Russia and The Netherlands, besides holding talks with their envoys in the near future so as to further increase the number of tourist arrivals from these countries to Melaka.

"Because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, maybe the Russians won’t travel to countries in Western Europe, so Melaka must be prepared to receive them and it is hoped there will be no restrictions on them entering Malaysia," he told reporters here today.

 

[Strangelove]

Russia to become one of the world's healthiest nations.

 

[enroger]

I am very very very sceptical about the laser thing on 99a. Its supposed to burn out seekers. Then again the PLAA have HJ-10 and HJ-12 in their inventory. Lets see if it can burn out the imager.

Me too. Also the system is not capable of going after sensors on missile afaik, it responses to laser signal ie a laser range finder, the system beam back a much stronger laser back to burn out enemy optics (meat or otherwise.....)

 

[plawolf]

I am very very very sceptical about the laser thing on 99a. Its supposed to burn out seekers. Then again the PLAA have HJ-10 and HJ-12 in their inventory. Lets see if it can burn out the imager.

I think it would be fairly effective against laser guided ATGMs like original hellfire and the like.

It should also be effective against other optical sensors, but the main problem is going to be targeting.

Against laser guided weapons, it’s easy as you just direct your laser blinder back to the source of the incoming laser emitter.

With thermal and other passive guidance methods, the blinder is not going to be able to know where to direct its beam to blind incoming missiles and/or command guidance units, which I think is going to be the main issue.

I think that’s something the PLA has also realised, which is why the newer, smaller unit on the upgraded 99As have probably gone a different direction and went from power to coverage focused. This is based on the 4 windows that can be seen on higher res images of the device.

Thus, I think the new unit functions much like a laser ‘disco ball’ dazzler typically found on helicopter self defence suits where it will throw a wall of laser beams at incoming missiles to dazzle its seeker and confuse the guidance software.

If such dazzlers works on helicopters against IIR seekers, it should in theory also work against other optical sensors like thermal since no matter what wavelength it uses, if you hit the sensor with enough energy, you are going to overload it and dazzle it.

But the biggest unknown, and the key to determining if it can work in practice is going to be based on detailed operating specs we will have no way of knowing.

With helicopters, because the target is typically going to be moving at high speed, even momentary breaks in lock can be enough to defeat the missile as it may no longer have the target in its field of view to reacquire a lock after the dazzler effect passes.

With tanks, it’s obviously harder since tanks are going to be stationary or very slow moving. So even if you managed to dazzle the seeker for a second or two, odds are by the time the dazzling effect passes, your tank is still going to be within the missile seeker field of view so it can reacquire a lock. So whether you can defeat it is going to be a race between how long and how frequently your dazzler can dazzle the missile seeker and how long the seeker and software needs to re-establish lock between being dazzled and course correct.

The odds shift in the favour of the defender if the dazzler has sufficient output to permanently damage or degrade the optical sensor with each hit.

But just the fact that the PLA continue to deploy it on newly produced 99As makes me hopeful that it is effective. Or else why would the PLA bother to continue to buy it even with hard kill APS also available?

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

I'd imagine he'll be happy to substitute NATO membership for EU membership.
The trouble is, the Ukraine was a poor & corrupt nation before this war started and it'll only be worse now as their infrastructure is being slowly raised to rubble.

I highly doubt Germany, France or even members like Poland, Hungary would want Ukraine to be admitted in the state they will be in after this war. The reunification of east Germany cost a lot and there was a much smaller economic disparity there and no war to clean up after.

So Zelensky will have to accept no NATO, no EU, and territorial concessions (Crimea, LPR, DPR) if he wants peace right now. The problem here is that he's built much of his image in standing up to Russia and Ukrainian propaganda has lead to most Ukrainians under the impression they are winning (70%+ according to a recent poll). So this peace deal will be seen as a massive betrayal and people will be coming for him with pitchforks. I don't think the Russian offer is sincere, but that's another matter.

Ukraine has already gotten its EU application accepted. So that's at least something.
How poor Ukraine is matters little. Most Eastern European countries were quite poor when they gained EU membership.
Ukraine also has a lot of political goodwill and a real champion in Poland, like the Baltic states had in the Nordic countries.
Democratic constitution, corruption and miniority issues however matters.
All the unsolved issues with the Donbass region, Crimea and russian miniority would block EU entry indefinitely.
Ukraine might as well solve all these in any peace agreement with Russia.
In many ways EU membership comes will a lot more demands than NATO membership.
Nothing is free.

 

[InfamousMeow]

Delete. My question already answered.

 

[LCR34]

I am a little bit curious, is it a sure thing that there is laser on 99A that is used for burning out imagers on ATGMs?

I've read some online discussion of the laser being used solely to burn out the detection-aiming systems on enemy vehicles and personnels. Is it even possible for the laser to steadily track the insanely small and fast ATGMs, the detection of which is a problem by itself. As far as I know, all APS systems in the world requires some sort of radars to detect the incoming projectiles, however, there isn't any radar on 99A as far as I know. How would 99A know about the incoming of ATGMs?

Probably something lost in translation then.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Good! Keep questioning the Americans. Keep this topic hot for as long as possible. What are all those biolabs in Ukraine for? What have they done or produced there? What was there that was so urgent for them to destroy? The world cannot let America slip away with this.

The US had rallied the world into a witchhunt on one particular lab of virology. Its now time to shed light on the many more shady Americans biolabs in Ukraine. The world needs to know!