Ukrainian War Developments

[Nobaru]

All hail the man who keeps Nikki Haley awake at night & has leverage over Uncle Vlad

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[Pmichael]

The exchange rate of rubel fallen futher ,so in a week time the Russian economy collapsed from the 90% of italian to the 40% of italian.

I hope you recognise the absurdity of your claim now.

That's not how it works. If you can access it read about GDP on wiki.

China also makes work machines. Russia is a major supplier of the materials to make automotive and aerospace parts. It also has substantial facilities to make those parts in Russia proper. A lot of the parts manufacturing facilities and car assembly plants in Russia are owned by countries which froze Russian Central Bank assets and confiscated Russian private assets abroad. Those facilities in Russia will just be confiscated. Sure. There will be a huge disruption in the short term. In 5 years it won't make a difference.


Russian politicians have warned against NATO expansion since before Putin was even in power. It is just that before they were not in a condition to oppose it.

That's not how economy works. There is neither the institutional know how, work force nor supply lines in place to replace the loss of imports. First Russia has no business with what sovereign states are doing and you just repeat Russian phrases about NATO being a threat but can't actually name the real threats or want to accept that the actual problem isn't the NATO but Russia's limited foreign policy of master and client states.

 

[getready]

I will state my position again. Not acknowledging the expansion of NATO as being a problem is undertaken by the Western and especially US political elite deliberately to divert away from the fact that it is a problem, and casting Putin as seeking to recreate Imperial Russia is thoroughly ridiculous unless one also says that he wants world war 3. To recreate the Russian Empire he has to attack NATO member countries.

So, just go ahead and say it: Putin wants world war 3 and nuke exchange that will be thoroughly devasting for the globe - according to you.

That guy is wasting everyone time here with his Russian fantasies. Another troll for me to block

 

[ArmchairAnalyst]

Ukraine had the strongest military in the EU, stronger than the next 2-3 together.

So, why should be Finland a hard pick ?

Politically (core West), allies (Nordic country, EU member and NATO cooperation), economically (rich), geografically (difficult terrain), population (ethnically homogeneous), military (75+ years preparation, huge reserve force, huge stockpile of supplies).
And the finns will to fight would probably be the same as or even stronger than the Ukrainians.

 

[tokenanalyst]

All hail the man who keeps Nikki Haley awake at night & has leverage over Uncle Vlad

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According to Western media Xi Jinping is God, everything that happens in the universe from quantum scales to relativistic scales is his fault.

 

[Richard Santos]

Before the war, Russia would have been accepting of abiding by the Minsk protocol and neutrality. I believe that Russia bit off too much by recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk before the war. Russia could accept the EU. It is not clear what it means by bloc.

russia can’t accept EU, at least not within many years after the Ukraine invasion, because from russian perspective EU has been amost as hostile as NATO.

A more profound difference is while NATO is a tool of the US, there is prospect the US would lose focus on Russia if the US becomes more deeply embroiled in a contest with China in 5-10 years time. But EU members in Eastern Europe that had been under the Soviet boot before 1990 and came out badly WRT stalin’s Russia at the end of WW2, such as poland, Romania, Hungary, the baltic republics, and Finland, have permanent weight in the EU, deeper anti-Russian sympathy with Ukraine, that will ensure it takes much longer, if ever, to lose focus on Russia after Ukraine invasion.

 

[Richard Santos]

All hail the man who keeps Nikki Haley awake at night & has leverage over Uncle Vlad

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There actually is a golden opportunity here for canny and skilled Chinese diplomacy to insert China semi-permanently into Europe as a major player in internal Eastern European diplomatic affairs at the other end of belt and road.

However, at the risk of offending much of the contingent here, I have to say Chinese diplomacy has been singularly inept at comprehending and adapting to the internal views, perceptions and political realities of other states, so China has little chance of being able to successful capitalize on this opportunity.

 

[gelgoog]

That's not how economy works. There is neither the institutional know how, work force nor supply lines in place to replace the loss of imports. First Russia has no business with what sovereign states are doing and you just repeat Russian phrases about NATO being a threat but can't actually name the real threats or want to accept that the actual problem isn't the NATO but Russia's limited foreign policy of master and client states.

NATO bombed Serbia. They broke Kosovo from Serbia by force and recognized its independence. NATO bombed Libya and turned it into an open air slave market. NATO used Article 4 (not Article 5 like some people assume) on Afghanistan and sent troops there.

The US withdrew from ABM and INF Treaties. They place Mk 41 VLS in Poland and Romania next to Russia. They claim these systems are to intercept Iranian missiles into Europe. Why not place missile systems in Turkey then? Why Poland? Also AFAIK Iran never threatened Europe. Only reason they do not do to Russia what they did to Serbia back when Chechen war happened was Russian nuclear deterrent. Mk 41 VLS in Poland and Romania help undermine this deterrent.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I have to say Chinese diplomacy has been singularly inept at comprehending and adapting to the internal views, perceptions and political realities of other states

Why should China adapt to the internal views, perceptions and political realities of other states? You are required to answer why China should even bother doing that before opining on how adeptly China does so. Why don't these other states adapt to the internal views, perceptions and political realities of China?

 

[FADH1791]

Russia needs to figure out what to do about the manpads and atgms flooding to Ukraine. At a certain the Ukrainians will have more of these weapons than Russia has tanks which is a bad sign. Any insurgency that has these weapons will inflict terrible casualties to the occupying force. These two weapons systems are boon for any insurgency. Same thing would happen to the US if they tried to invade Iran. Manpads+atgms deadly combo for a successful prolonged insurgency. Russia needs to figure this out. They may have to go Grozny on all the major cities in Ukraine to crush the insurgency.