Alright, folks. A minibrain dump here. I apologize for my absence. I have been insanely busy (work, helping the family, etc) plus I inadvertently called a surgical strike on myself: while cooking dinner, talking on the phone for obvious family reasons and wanting to pay attention to what is going online, including here, about the war, I had moved my laptop into the kitchen. I was not careful with the power cord and rushing about, tripped and sent the laptop flying. It cratered pretty impressively and I have been trying to retrieve data from it since. If one of you could tell me whose post I was reading at the time, I can arrange an invasion - complete with drink of your choice and some rather international cuisine - because look at what you made me do! (note: this is sarcastic snarky banter, not serious)
The family is in Poland and being fed and clothed. The situation is not good in the area and we are attempting to move them away from the crush that is only getting worse. That said, they are in no danger of bandits, Russian or Ukrainian artillery or air strikes, or terrified, adrenaline filled boys with guns, stupid civilians with rifles, or anyone with a grudge.
I want to clear something up that came up in the thread and the replies to me. I am not Ukrainian. I did not grow up in Ukraine. I have spent a LOT of time in Ukraine - even dug the black earth to plant potatoes, weeded agrden patches, fixed roofs and even have a knee that aches due to a collapsing chimney crying revenge on me for helping tear it down - and my family is from there. We are very xenophilic in our marriage partner tastes. My extended family looks like the UN when we get together: I think at this point we are only missing one continent. People with wildly transnational families can understand. This is a family tradition for us going back well over a century. Ukrainians are my family, but not my countrymen is the simplest way to put it. I don't want to misrepresent.
Back to the thread topic!
I think all of us need a mild recalibration of what looks like victory or defeat for the Russians. With the leaked documents claiming Russia expected a 15 day war, the claims of failure due to not achieving victory in 72 hours are wildly off. It might have been bluff and bluster by Russians: look how badass we are going to be. Perhaps it was mere propaganda or misinformation by oneside or the other: Russia said they could defeat us in 3 days! Ha! Therefore, before declaring victory (or failure) let's wait and see how things look in 5 days. Ukraine could totally collapse in that time frame. Russia's logistics could totally melt down.
Please, take everything said online with grains of salt enough to fill a Messinian Salinity Crisis Mediterranean. So much BS is flying around from Ukraine, the West, Russia, the LNR+DNR and all the usual gremlins and trolls online, you could fertilize a continent. Don't accept - or deny - something just because it fits your personal biases or desires. I know what I want. It is wildly divergent with reality. I accept that. I'd rather face the world as it is rather than lie to myself because the most powerful and dangerous lies are the ones we tell ourselves.
As for narratives! One I want to call out is the 'cheap Chinese tires.' This is annoying. China - like any country - has a wide range of manufacturers. There are fly by night entities. There are folks who make cheap stuff for those only willing to pay squat. There are those who make some of the best equipment in the world in China. You get what you pay for. Perhaps the Russians bought cheap crap. Perhaps they didn't take care of their equipment: some leaking seals suggest this. suggest. might. perhaps, perhaps, perhaps. Tagging the Russian issues with the Chinese location is wrong and at best an attempt to shift blame and at worst an intentional smear. FWIW, I buy extensive amounts of Chinese gear all the time. It works great. Any issues I have are due to shipping which is not their fault and the companies are more than happy to replace or fix it. They are extremely professional and even pleasant on the personal level. This Chinese related narrative is not the only one needing to be addressed, but one I have seen here.
I want to point something out people here should know already. How much land does an army really control? Truthfully, as far as they can see. With the grand maps showing well one side or another is doing (or not!), one should take into mind that truism. It was wildly apparent in invasions/wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan (Russian and American versions) and Iraq (round two). What matters is the people's will to resist and fight. What do we see here? I suspect its not as clear as anyone will make it sound.
I have a lot of catching up to do to see what the situation is outside my personal bubble. I will probably resume regular postings probably tomorrow or Monday.
Please, be safe. Please, be civil. Please, be critical. Please, be on topic. Please, don't do low effort posts. The mods allowed this thread to come back to life. I have utterly appreciated the actual, real thoughts and analysis people have given. I'd hate to lose this thread again with the increased scrutiny we have now.
