Ukrainian War Developments

[Pmichael]

There are only two ways for China to solve this issue with Foreign currency reserves. Just don't keep any.

Either China gives up on a managed exchanged rate and makes its currency completely free floating, thus it will never need any foreign reserves and whatever the market decides the value of Yuan is, it is. This is the type of system used by many western countries.

Option 2 is that China mandates that trades with China must happen in Yuan only. No more dollar trades. I think China has enough financial and trade power to dictate such a thing. It will be disruptive in the begining but that can be mitigated by providing a long enough deadline like a 2- year deadline or something.

Once China does this, Yuan will automatically become a reserve currency and a currency used for trades by many countries around the world. Then again China won't need to manage its exchange rate against the dollar and no need to keep any reserves.

As long as China focuses on managing its exchange rate, it will be vulnerable to asset freezes.

The wider market will never accept a state controlled currency. Like ask your next Chinese economy prof how he would see it. There is a reason why the world uses US Dollars.

 

[Abominable]

Since numerous NATO countries have cleared their citizens to join the fight in Ukraine, what happens to them when they get capture? Does the POW rule of Geneva convention applies to those foreign volunteers?

I know Geneva convention doesn't apply to mercenaries as they are not recognized as legitimate combatants. But foreign citizens that volunteered are not exactly contracted mercenaries though. Are they going to be imprisoned in Russia after the war?

The Russians have already made it clear that any foreign volunteers will NOT be covered under the Geneva Convention. They are 100% legally justified to do this, and there is historical president. Foreign volunteers in the Germany army got tried as war criminals. There is nothing wrong with Ukrainian citizens going back to fight for their country, but any foreigner will be de facto seen as a war criminal. I can't emphasise more that the Russians ARE NOT F*CKING AROUND.

Despite this, I'm amazed that western governments are not stopping people from leaving, they seem to be encouraging it. They will have been told by their governments if they do go, they are 100% on their own.

It's insane that reddit has a subforum dedicated to recruiting people to go into what will be almost certain death, or war crimes charges.

It is Syria all over again. Except this time, it won't be against irregular bands of arabs with broken kalashnikovs, it'll be against a national army with a competent airforce and artillery. The tactical gear you bought on amazon will be useless when the building you're hiding in is hit with a thermobaric bomb.

A lot of western GI Joes will be experiencing a very accurate re-enactment of Tora Bora very soon, but in reverse. Anyone who is not summarily executed on the spot when captured will face a Nuremburg style trial and a prison sentence at the very least. I'm not gloating about that in any way, it makes my sick to my stomach thinking about it.

I find the conduct of western governments and the Ukrainian regime in particular to be an ABSOLUTE disgrace.

 

[FriedButter]

The Russians have already made it clear that any foreign volunteers will NOT be covered under the Geneva Convention. They are 100% legally justified to do this, and there is historical president. Foreign volunteers in the Germany army got tried as war criminals. There is nothing wrong with Ukrainian citizens going back to fight for their country, but any foreigner will be de facto seen as a war criminal. I can't emphasise more that the Russians ARE NOT F*CKING AROUND.

Despite this, I'm amazed that western governments are not stopping people from leaving, they seem to be encouraging it. They will have been told by their governments if they do go, they are 100% on their own.

It's insane that reddit has a subforum dedicated to recruiting people to go into what will be almost certain death, or war crimes charges.

It is Syria all over again. Except this time, it won't be against irregular bands of arabs with broken kalashnikovs, it'll be against a national army with a competent airforce and artillery. The tactical gear you bought on amazon will be useless when the building your hiding in is hit with a thermobaric bomb.

A lot of western GI Joes will be experiencing a very accurate re-enactment of Tora Bora very soon, but in reverse. Anyone who is not summarily executed on the spot when captured will face a Nuremburg style trial and a prison sentence at the very least. I'm not gloating about that in any way, it makes my sick to my stomach thinking about it.

I find the conduct of western governments and the Ukrainian regime in particular to be an ABSOLUTE disgrace

I don’t even know if any records of them will even be left. There are no civilians flights to Ukraine. That means they have to cross the border but I doubt Ukraine is doing paperwork for the entering foreigner. Russia could sentence them to 100 years in a Siberian prison and no one would even know a thing.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The wider market will never accept a state controlled currency. Like ask your next Chinese economy prof how he would see it. There is a reason why the world uses US Dollars.

They will accept anything that has trade and financial muscle. If China is the largest GDP in the world, the country with most wealth in the world, the country with most trade, then Countries will have to deal with China in whatever way China likes it. You deal with your customer the way it likes it, you don't get to dictate. Once China becomes big enough it will have that power of Dictation.

Same thing with reserve currency. US govt already has absolute power over the Dollar. So, is it any different from a govt controlled currency? I don't think so. But people still trade with it because US is the biggest economy and the most wealthy.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Option 2 is that China mandates that trades with China must happen in Yuan only. No more dollar trades. I think China has enough financial and trade power to dictate such a thing. It will be disruptive in the begining but that can be mitigated by providing a long enough deadline like a 2- year deadline or something.

Problem is international transation needs lot of yuan.

Yuan available for this purpose needs lot of trade deficit, to inject the money into the hand of foreigners/central banks.
It needs to be 3-5% of the GDP for 5-10 years at least.

There is no other way to achieve it.

 

[reservior dogs]

Problem is international transation needs lot of yuan.

Yuan available for this purpose needs lot of trade deficit, to inject the money into the hand of foreigners/central banks.
It needs to be 3-5% of the GDP for 5-10 years at least.

There is no other way to achieve it.

What about the sale of Yuan denominated debt?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Problem is international transation needs lot of yuan.

Yuan available for this purpose needs lot of trade deficit, to inject the money into the hand of foreigners/central banks.
It needs to be 3-5% of the GDP for 5-10 years at least.

There is no other way to achieve it.

Not necessary, you can have Trade surplus while having a Capital account deficit Or vice Versa. So, China can essentially invest in places like Africa using Yuan and pass Yuan that way. But ofcourse companies and people of those countries will have to accept Yuan as an exchange mechanism but that will only happen when they can use Yuan for trades all over the world.

 

[Pmichael]

They will accept anything that has trade and financial muscle. If China is the largest GDP in the world, the country with most wealth in the world, the country with most trade, then Countries will have to deal with China in whatever way China likes it. You deal with your customer the way it likes it, you don't get to dictate. Once China becomes big enough it will have that power of Dictation.

Same thing with reserve currency. US govt already has absolute power over the Dollar. So, is it any different from a govt controlled currency? I don't think so. But people still trade with it because US is the biggest economy and the most wealthy.

It’s like you want to ruin the Chinese economy. Even ignoring there is still a currency exchanging involved

 

[Minm]

There are only two ways for China to solve this issue with Foreign currency reserves. Just don't keep any.

Either China gives up on a managed exchanged rate and makes its currency completely free floating, thus it will never need any foreign reserves and whatever the market decides the value of Yuan is, it is. This is the type of system used by many western countries.

Option 2 is that China mandates that trades with China must happen in Yuan only. No more dollar trades. I think China has enough financial and trade power to dictate such a thing. It will be disruptive in the begining but that can be mitigated by providing a long enough deadline like a 2- year deadline or something.

Once China does this, Yuan will automatically become a reserve currency and a currency used for trades by many countries around the world. Then again China won't need to manage its exchange rate against the dollar and no need to keep any reserves.

As long as China focuses on managing its exchange rate, it will be vulnerable to asset freezes.

It's ok for China to risk asset freezes, because there are more American assets in China than Chinese assets in America. Just like Russia is going to keep all those leased western planes that are stranded in Russia and probably many other western assets. In both world wars the US seized German private assets including patents. So as long as you are prepared for a total decoupling, you can keep all the publicly and privately owned foreign assets on your soil.

Of course it would be even smarter to borrow a lot of money from western banks before starting a war, then use the money to buy commodities and if there are any sanctions, default on the debt. That would cause a financial crisis for the affected banks and drive up inflation in the outside world because of higher commodity prices.

 

[Appix]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498921020199419905

Still, we made a lot of mistakes for example with being vastly dependent on the western controlled semiconductor supply chain and more than 3 trillion of Chinese reserves are stored in American dollars and can be seized at a whim. There is also a deadly dependence on the western controlled financial infrastructure of swift and chips.