Ukrainian War Developments

[FairAndUnbiased]

That remains to be seen.
China could probably outproduce the US long term. With no "interuptions or interference"
Add in all US allies.....no, not really. China needs allies and friends that matter, that's the real global contest. Can't do it alone.
And that's why Russia is a really poor tradeoff for the EU (if it comes down to that).

EU is a competitor, Russia is a supplier.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

is similar to (Italy, Slovakia, France) or higher than (everyone else) every EU country, only standout is Germany.

Competitors going down may or may not be bad. Suppliers going down is 100% bad.

And EU can't cut China off 100%, otherwise at minimum they say goodbye to billions worth of physical FDI they already have in China. How much accumulated FDI does China have?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

They stopped counting after that. EU may have China's paper, but China has EU's things.

 

[Deino]

Interesting leak:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[56860]

LOL China can shred the US in the long term. Far larger population with increasing automation flying up the tech ladder. America is far more prone to being interrupted while China shows time and time again that it is excellent at turning disaster into oppertunity.

Don't know about that. Most of them are lazy decadent nations that consume and throw riots only when the retirement age is increased by a year or 2.

China has the world's biggest ally in Russia and it's both gaining and strengthening others in countries that the West as marginalized.

Eh... debatable. China's running the US down in tech practically doing it alone as the US shouts for help from all corners of the world.

It's not a trade; the EU is America's puppet. We make transactional deals with the EU but never expect it to be a real partner because it has the same long term interests as the US. Every dollar/yuan/euro spent on the EU non-transactionally is wasted because they cling to Western dominance at their core, though less zealously than the US because they have less to lose. Not that it's possible to do, China would be a fool to trade a bear for a pack of small woodland animals.

China's economy will almost certainly surpass the US in nominal terms by the end of the decade (depends on yuan devaluation) and by PPP China will be larger by ~40%. It will certainly hold the largest and most influential economy in the world by every metric.

However China won't usurp the US as world hegemon until it becomes the greater technological power, which unfortunately isn't happening in the short term. Even 80s Japan was closer to tech parity with the US than China today. In this regard China still has a long way to go.

Remember that Qing China commanded 40% of global GDP but got walloped by western powers and Japan with a fraction of its GDP. Why? Because technology is everything and Qing China was an agrarian backwater compared to the industrialized societies of the west. The civilization with superior tech will always come out on top, this is why MIC 2025 is the single most important policy post-1978.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yes, national identity transcends language. What seems to be happening in the last few years had been the movement on the one hand to push for a Ukrainian identity to separate themselves away from Russia and tilt more towards the West. Part of that was internal. We all want to identify with areas with more prosperity. Just look at Hong Kong. Part of that was pushed by the U.S. and the West. This movement have reached a very high anti-Russian pitch. On the other hand, there were reaction to this movement, which also were pushed by the Russians. This could not possibly end well, and indeed, what happened today is the result.

It is quite unfortunate that Ukraine either do not have wise leadership or the leaders were simply puppets for local or foreign powers. They did not have to go down this path. There were many other choices since independence that would lead to a much better outcome for Ukraine.

Ukraine has GDP per capita less than 1/3 of Russia. Why would they want to identify with Ukraine? It's as crazy as a Chinese wanting to identify as Indonesian or Filipino.

 

[Deino]

As it seems, NO so far issued request to calm down and stick on facts, no warning to leave out propaganda and off topic posts covering other political issues we heard, as such I close this thread!

We are currently discussing on how to proceed and overall I would like to suggest that the Ukrainian war thread should be renamed to a news thread only: All members can post news, but any political discussion including plain stupid posting of propaganda from both sides as well as posting jokes and caricatures should be forbidden.

And even more this action now should be connected with a strict warning that anyone who does not stick to the rules and adds other conflicts like Iraq, Taiwan, Turkey, Afghanistan or the trade war, ethnics and whatsoever should be banned without any further warning!

@Webmaster

 

[SampanViking]

Igor Terekhov tells the BBC that intense fighting is taking place on all sides of the city and says the situation is "very dangerous".

He says Russian troops are shelling and firing cruise missiles at residential areas "constantly", and adds that he's received reports Moscow's forces have detonated a so-called "vacuum bomb" in the city.

"They [Russia] threw against Kharkiv all the imaginable forces and a colossal number of tanks are approaching Kharkiv," he says.

He adds, the Russian attack "never stops" and says Ukrainian troops are engaged in running battles with what he calls "saboteur groups" and is calling on the outside world "to do everything possible to stop the aggressor".

Now this is interesting. Terekhov is the Major of Kharkiv and this text is lifted from the BBC website live feed
I do wonder if these "saboteur units" are not in fact the local militia finally making its presence felt. I have been wondering what had happened to them in Kharkiv, knowing just how much the movement was crushed in the city back in 2014.

 

[T-U-P]

After much discussion, we are re-opening this thread. All previous rules are still in place, that means:

1. absolutely no discussion of potential China/Taiwan conflict (militarily, politically, anything!)
2. no attacking other members, no matter how their opinions may differ from you (no slurs, name calling, etc.)
3. no one-liner posts
4. no single Twitter/Reddit posts, in fact we highly recommend not to use Twitter/Reddit as your source of information
*The above are immediately ban-able offenses!

5. keep the Ukraine conflict discussion to this thread - that means don't flood the World News thread!
6. posting a link to anything (news sites, official announcements, etc.) must be accompanied by some sort of analysis allowing for further discussion
7. if all you want is to call out another member, but have nothing useful to bring forward to continue the discussion, then don't do it
8. call out inappropriate behaviour, not difference in opinion
9. if you see a troll post, the right thing to do is to IGNORE it!

We hope this thread will be used to provide useful updates on what is happening, staying away from obvious propaganda and mis-information.

 

[Temstar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499392865339785220

There seem to be some sort of Ukrainian counterattack near Kiev, with Bucha (near Antonov Airport) retaken

Today's update from Shilao:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Situation largely unchanged in the last 24 hours. Apparently some very small scale air assult near Odessa which allowed VDV to capture a bridge. Mariupol is being shelled relentlessly and they've been largely without power of water. Here's Mariupol:

Rumours floating around on Russian side of social media that Chechen units are engaged with Azov Battalion in Mariupol and they managed to capture a few prisoners from them and did the thing they're infamous for with photos to prove it.

 

[Overbom]

Updated map. There is also talk about a possible amphibious landing in Odessa

Russian forces may be creating multiple pockets here. Their biggest one may start from Kiev and go all the way down to Odessa/Crimean front

"For those following events, this is a map of Ukraine (and Donbass), showing which parts, in red, are now under Russian control, and which parts, shaded red, are coming under Russian control"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499147939079507970

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Cross posting part of @Vatt’ghern ’s post:

thanks bro, will try to write something up re the Northern crusades but it's interesting the relationship between the Russians, and Poles and even the Golden Horde during that period of history.

As i mentioned in the other thread, Russian retaliation has begun

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499362904734593024

Russia can employ other methods to bring the pain to the US- as we know, stagflation is already in america with no signs of abating, and the price of natural gas will only increase to punish the foolish westerners, this will cause other food prices to increase as well given transport costs and petrochemicals and fertilisers.

Russians reported capture of Azov neonazi soldiers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499365885319987206

I guess from the perspective of Azov, this would be like Gondor Rangers being captured by Uruk-Hai? As some have mentioned here, it was so helpful for these nazis to tattoo themselves so that Russians could find the perpetrators so much more easily!