Ukrainian War Developments

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JamesRed

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That remains to be seen.
China could probably outproduce the US long term. With no "interuptions or interference"
Add in all US allies.....no, not really. China needs allies and friends that matter, that's the real global contest. Can't do it alone.
And that's why Russia is a really poor tradeoff for the EU (if it comes down to that).
China commissioned 10 Destroyers last year while the US commissioned 1. To anyone with any common sense it has already been seen.
 

blindsight

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Instead of looking at digital numbers which are easily manipulated why not look at a real world metric. How many warships can the US make a year vs how many can China make a year? Neither GDP nor the printing press that creates the fictional GDP can print new ships.
Yes, the US has to use most of its shipbuilding industrial to support its navy, while China is only using a tiny portion.
 

tokenanalyst

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That remains to be seen.
China could probably outproduce the US long term. With no "interuptions or interference"
Add in all US allies.....no, not really. China needs allies and friends that matter, that's the real global contest. Can't do it alone.
And that's why Russia is a really poor tradeoff for the EU.
China doesn't look for "Allies" and "Friends" they look for partners (in Trade, research, etc.) , they don't give a damn about the country politics or religion or if the country is the most liberal democracy or the most brutal dictatorship, they don't care, as long there is mutual respect and non interference. Even today the Chinese are trying to get a peace deal with Ukraine and talking with the government and if a peace deal is broke then China will do business with Ukraine like they will do business with Russia. They will do business with ALL U.S. "Allies" and "Friends" as long there are mutual respect. That is the secret of the Chinese success.
 

Richard Santos

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Look at the geographic map of the invasion, Both of the major Russian land drives, down from north down into Kyiv, and up from the south from Crimea through Kherson, are alone the Dniper river, the major river in Ukraine that supply water to much the agriculture in Ukraine.

much of Dniper between Kyiv and Kherson consisted of a cascading series of hydroelectric damns and reservoirs, one after another, built by Stalin And Khrushchev. These reservoirs boardens much of the river into a wide and massive water barrier that divides Ukraine 30/70 east and west.

Look at the linguistic and ethnographic map of Ukraine. Much of Ukraine near the mouth of the Dniper is primarily Russian speaking and ethnically Russian. About 3/4 of Ukraine to the east of Dniper, which is about 30% of all of Ukraine, is also heavily (about half) Russian speaking and ethnically Russia. But most Ukraine to the west of Dniper is primarily Ukrainian speaking, with small parts of western Ukraine, primarily the parts stalin took from other countries at the end of WWII and appended to Ukraine, being primarily Romanian, Hungarian, modovians, polish.

It looks very much like Putin meant to secure the northern and southern ends of Dniper river in Ukraine. The northern and southern bridgeheads would then be joined by a long, almost continuous series of reserviros along the Dniper river that would then form a barrier between a future Russian Ukraine to the east, and an Ukrainian Ukraine to the west.

Whether he will annex the eastern Ukraine to Russia out right is hard to say. But I suspect that is the long term objective if not the next thing on the road map Because it is heavily Russian in ethnic make up to start with.

But I suspect he will not annex western Ukraine to the west of Dniper. It is enthnically and linguistically non-Russia. He will undoubtedly want to install a pro-Russian government in western Ukraine, although what form it also hard to say. But he will also likely insist that the Russia or the eastern Russia dominated part of Ukraine retain full control of the Dniper reservoirs, because controlling those reservoirs undoubtedly controls the agriculture of much of Ukraine. So Russian control of try Dniper river and its reservoirs ensures, from Russian perspective, permanent good, Russian friendly future behavior of the part of Ukraine that is not under Russian control.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well. That's been an interesting sojourn. Look at what's going on here. smh.

A couple bits, folks, I want to address.

First off, please, remember the mods stated no more 1 liner responses and mere posts of twitter. Please, add some analysis and commentary with some depth so we don't lose anymore drone salesmen.

The second item is a little long. I am probably going to do it a disservice and others might be able to explain it better or more eloquently. There is a narrative I am very annoyed by and have been since 2007 when I first heard it. I was naive - forgive me - and not heard it earlier. We are all young and dumb one point or another. Some of us grow out of it to be middle aged and dumb, though.

That narrative is being Russian speaking means an area is Russian. This is incorrect. The Donbas prior to 2014 was an area identifying itself as Ukrainian: these days it's different due to the massive population turnover. Odesa and Kharkov did and do see themselves as Ukrainian. There were people there who called themselves Russian, but the majority people who spoke Russian called themselves Ukrainian. This was not the case for Crimea, but Crimea is its own convoluted mess. People here and now are calling Kharkov and Odesa Russian. That's really incorrect.

It would be like saying parts of China are not China due to language. Southern China's language is very different than northern. Tibet and the western provinces (regions?) even more so. However, these are indelibly China. Language does not make them separate nations. That's beyond stupid and the people who claim otherwise have some nasty agendas involved.

Likewise, saying people with the same language should be united into a nation is dumb. I am 1000% sure the Australians, British, Canadians, Irish, etc. do not want to united in a single nation with Americans. Likewise, there are Americans who speak Spanish at home I know who are wildly opposed to being united with Mexico. They are of Mexican descent or their families settled their prior to Mexico's independence from Spain.

In addition, claiming Odesa or whatever is Russian because they used to be Russian is goofy on many levels, too. Donetsk was not founded by a Russian, but an Englishman. Kaliningrad wasn't built by Russians originally. It is very much Russia now. Only a few morons would dispute that.

Personal example, my family did not speak Ukrainian, at least at home and even day to day, except when calling those out west: they spoke Russian. They saw and see themselves as Ukrainian, except Baba Zoe. She was born in Russia and married a Ukrainian man during Soviet times. She was the only one allowed to remain in Gorlovka after 2014 and she died, alone, with her children and grandchildren unable to see her the four years after.

It is not to say there were not tensions between the Right and Left Banks or other areas. Carpatians have all sorts of nasty things to say about everyone! At least when I went there. I think I have seen people describing the same thing in China in this very thread. Those tensions are not to say people are not the same nationality though.

In summary, one should be very careful to not assume because a language is spoken there those people are Russian or Ukrainian. It isn't that simple.
Yes, national identity transcends language. What seems to be happening in the last few years had been the movement on the one hand to push for a Ukrainian identity to separate themselves away from Russia and tilt more towards the West. Part of that was internal. We all want to identify with areas with more prosperity. Just look at Hong Kong. Part of that was pushed by the U.S. and the West. This movement have reached a very high anti-Russian pitch. On the other hand, there were reaction to this movement, which also were pushed by the Russians. This could not possibly end well, and indeed, what happened today is the result.

It is quite unfortunate that Ukraine either do not have wise leadership or the leaders were simply puppets for local or foreign powers. They did not have to go down this path. There were many other choices since independence that would lead to a much better outcome for Ukraine.
 
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