Ukrainian War Developments

[james smith esq]

MODERATORS:
PLEASE REMOVE THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL POSTS PERTAINING TO RACISM WHICH ARE NOT RELEVANT TO THIS THREAD
​

 

[plawolf]

Again quite, I would agree with you. But withdrawing staff from an Embassy is a crazy thing to do just for a stunt. Its as near as drawing a weapon as you can get. If it means nothing it is a reckless and stupid act.

They are not withdrawing staff from their Russian embassy are they? That would be interesting and a big escalation. Pulling staff from Ukraine just seems like they are getting ready to jump ship to abandon them to their fate against the Russians.

Why should Putin help the US out by invading and proving them right when it will be far more damaging if Russia didn’t do anything and just reminded everyone looking to hide behind American skirts who ran at the first sign of trouble.

 

[Laviduce]

I think the core issue is Putin refuses to accept the outcome imposed by the West after the end of the cold war, he wants to roll back and renegotiate major parts of it.

Yes, he and the rest of the Russian government do not feel like getting screwed over is or was acceptable so now they are trying to negotiate with the US to get a more appropriate deal. The problem is that the US mostly does not care. It aims for full spectrum dominance. You are either with them (as a subservient vassal) or against them.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Nope. It would be harder for you to find someone who ISN'T thinking of that LOL. That's why Biden couldn't accept Putin's demands, no matter HOW reasonable - it would be a massive loss of face.

Russians changed they behavious in 2021.

After 31 years of cooperation and doing ositive things for the USA/Europe they started to push back.


Best example the gas crisis in EU.

Every time in the past 31 years when the USA started to play "who is the chicken " the Russians just pulled to the side of the road.

Now they throw out the wheel and bolted the pedal to the metal.

 

[plawolf]

am i the only one who thinks this is all partly a distraction from domestic issues? the UK especially is suspect, Boris Johnson would love to have anything to take away the headlines from his parties...

Except the mighty new Global Britain has zero ability to make any meaningful impact on this issue. Even the EU is a helpless bystander to all this as the big dogs of the US and Russia decide their fate bilaterally.

In a way, I think that’s largely the point the Russians are trying to drive home to the Euros, that being part of NATO makes them subjects of the US empire and at the mercy of its objectives and priorities that often clash with that of the EU.

I would not be surprised if things don’t cool down just as spring and summer arrives and EU gas consumption drops, and heats up again next winter as EU gas demand soars. Russia can turn this into an annual money spinner and after a few years the Euros would be begging them to just take Ukraine and have done with it.

 

[W20]

One million Euro question

November 2021

"Ukraine has asked Russia’s gas behemoth Gazprom to extend the current gas transit deal that expires in 2024 for another 15 years and offered to cut transit fees in half"

December, 2021

"Victoria ("fxxx EU") Nuland said that Germany had also agreed to work alongside the United States to press Russia to extend by 10 years a transit agreement through Ukraine that is due to expire at the end of 2024"

 

[Anlsvrthng]

One million Euro question

November 2021

"Ukraine has asked Russia’s gas behemoth Gazprom to extend the current gas transit deal that expires in 2024 for another 15 years and offered to cut transit fees in half"

December, 2021

"Victoria ("fxxx EU") Nuland said that Germany had also agreed to work alongside the United States to press Russia to extend by 10 years a transit agreement through Ukraine that is due to expire at the end of 2024"

There is a simple solution for this problem.

Germany pay 2 billion euros/year to Ukraine for ten years and they leave Russia out from the equation.
Russia makes a transit deal with Germany involving only the Nord Stream 1 / 2 .

Anyway, Russia is just middle man between the German money and the Ukranan oligarch.

 

[SampanViking]

They are not withdrawing staff from their Russian embassy are they? That would be interesting and a big escalation. Pulling staff from Ukraine just seems like they are getting ready to jump ship to abandon them to their fate against the Russians.

Why should Putin help the US out by invading and proving them right when it will be far more damaging if Russia didn’t do anything and just reminded everyone looking to hide behind American skirts who ran at the first sign of trouble.

Well no precisely. This is part of the problem that makes the situation so incomprehensible!!??

Nobody has any obvious interest in talking up and over hyping the situation into a crisis that could easily assume a life of its own, despite nobody really wanting it.
It is unfathomable in many ways, why the US/UK are doing and saying the things they are, but the reality is that they are saying and doing these things. They are the only people doing and saying the very things most likely to result in the outcome which they say they do not want.

The only thing that really makes any sense to me, is the notion that the Maidan project has been a failure as it failed to take the Crimea from Russia and push Russia out of the Black Sea and the remaining Ukraine is an embarrassment and expense, with no remaining strategic value and they want rid of it, but in a way that does not repeat Afghanistan and where they can blame the Russians for it all.

As to why the Russians might possible be prepared to play along............

 

[plawolf]

Well no precisely. This is part of the problem that makes the situation so incomprehensible!!??

Nobody has any obvious interest in talking up and over hyping the situation into a crisis that could easily assume a life of its own, despite nobody really wanting it.
It is unfathomable in many ways, why the US/UK are doing and saying the things they are, but the reality is that they are saying and doing these things. They are the only people doing and saying the very things most likely to result in the outcome which they say they do not want.

The only thing that really makes any sense to me, is the notion that the Maidan project has been a failure as it failed to take the Crimea from Russia and push Russia out of the Black Sea and the remaining Ukraine is an embarrassment and expense, with no remaining strategic value and they want rid of it, but in a way that does not repeat Afghanistan and where they can blame the Russians for it all.

As to why the Russians might possible be prepared to play along............

Isn’t there an old saying about not ascribing to malice that which can be explained by incompetence?

I don’t think either side went into this with a master plan, and I agree that I don’t think anyone wants an actual war. Nor are the Americans scheming to backstab the Ukrainians by ‘tricking’ the Russians into invading.

The Americans just want to focus all their might in Asia against China and don’t want any distractions in Europe. Putin knows this and just joyously stirring the pot as hard as he can to make Ukraine and NATO beg for American troops so America can undermine NATO in ways Russia never could even dream of doing by refusing. Massively increasing gas prices is a nice little bonus for Putin that no doubt sweetens the deal.

As for why the UK/US is making so much noise. Well I think Roosevelt’s ‘speak softly and carry a big stick’ policy neatly applies. They are squealing so loudly because they don’t have a big stick and are trying classic intimidation tactics to try to cover for their lack of actual hard power military options with trash talk.

 

[SAC]

Hanlon's Razor.