J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

[Blitzo]

Remember when I asked if we had crossed 100 a few months back? I didn’t want to overshoot an estimate at the time but my thinking was, given in 2018 we were hearing chatter about a second production line being built for the J-20, and given that LRIP seemed to peak at about 10-12 units per year on presumably a single production line, that a reasonable rate of production would be ~12 in 2017 and 2018, and then 24 from 2019 onward. Which would lead us to the edge of 100 units by the end of 2021. Given right before the pandemic the consensus seemed to be that we were maybe approaching 40-50 units, it seemed reasonable to me that by the end of 2020 assuming production wasn’t too disrupted we would be hitting at least 70 and maybe up to 80 units. It’s entirely possible that in 2020 production was in fact disrupted and the rate slowed, but CAC could have made up for shortfalls over the duration of 2021. After seeing the very large shipment of J-20s last fall I felt a bit more confident that these estimates were closer to the ballpark of where things were than other more conservative counting methods, hence why I floated the question about whether we’d hit 100 units, to see where everyone else was at.

I must have missed it lol.

I did create and sticky a thread on the matter a few months back though, on the very topic.


But yes, the consensus now should be that in terms of total airframes produced that have made their maiden flights (including 201X/2X/3X prototypes), chances are they crossed that threshold in the last few months of 2021, and that is likely a floor/minimum estimate.

 

[by78]

Some screen captures in high-resolution.

 

[by78]

 

[by78]

 

[by78]

 

[taxiya]

Just watched this, I don't know where to put it, but since there was a lot of complains of J-20 and FC-31 not having a canon or SRAAM, it may fit here.

It is a serious joke by PLA officer. Translation:

Some typical missconceptoins:
Training officer: "Why engage dog fight?"
Trainee: "Because I have super manoeuvrability."
Training officer: "Wrong, because you are stupid!"

 

[Blitzo]

Just watched this, I don't know where to put it, but since there was a lot of complains of J-20 and FC-31 not having a canon or SRAAM, it may fit here.

It is a serious joke by PLA officer. Translation:

Some typical missconceptoins:
Training officer: "Why engage dog fight?"
Trainee: "Because I have super manoeuvrability."
Training officer: "Wrong, because you are stupid!"
View attachment 81483

Do you have a link to the video?
That's amazing lol

 

[siegecrossbow]

Just watched this, I don't know where to put it, but since there was a lot of complains of J-20 and FC-31 not having a canon or SRAAM, it may fit here.

It is a serious joke by PLA officer. Translation:

Some typical missconceptoins:
Training officer: "Why engage dog fight?"
Trainee: "Because I have super manoeuvrability."
Training officer: "Wrong, because you are stupid!"
View attachment 81483

This isn't even an original "joke" from PLAAF. This was first used by a Raptor instructor.

 

[latenlazy]

This isn't even an original "joke" from PLAAF. This was first used by a Raptor instructor.

But the Raptor has a gun!

 

[siegecrossbow]

But the Raptor has a gun!

Most spec ops still carry a knife. The point here is that you need to channel the greatest advantages of fifth generation aircraft -- stealth and superior situation awareness -- instead of playing fair with the opponents.