Read some old US strategic writings e.g. their proposed strategy of "off-shore control" or even inane bullshit ideas like "privateering Chinese merchant shipping". In all these scenarios, the US plans for a Chinese defeat is by China conceding their territorial claims and signing humiliating treaties whilst the CCP retaining control over China through internal suppression and propaganda that censors away any mention of Chinese defeats, so that China remains "stable" in a sense that it doesnt "default" and can still pay back the reparations.
Yes, such dumb ideas is what Washington tankies consider to be their desired result, because that's exactly the best outcome for the West: China's ambitions are kneecapped, either a pro-West CCP leadership/a leadership that is in fear of more US punishment comes to power and opens up the Chinese market for US multinationals to exploit, and of course the 1st island chain becomes a Chinese prison for all eternity.
Needless to say, the China of today, the China that has the dream of national rejuvenization, will never accept such an outcome and would rather become a Pariah like Russia after their Crimean episode for a few years than to turn into a semi-colonized shithole again. A
And this is actually the more likely outcome: China's market remains the biggest in the world, Germany, Japan and other economic powers desperately depend on the Chinese market for their own survival and cannot simply stop selling to China as they could with Russia. Furthermore, the Belt and Road Initiative as well as the alliance with Russia will mean that China's resource security and food security is ensured no matter what blockades the US will enact. China is basically a fortress nation, no matter how much the dogs outside bark and urinate against its walls.
All that's left is to talk about nuclear deterrence, really: China's arsenal of conventional weapons are strong enough to end US hegemony in Asia with ballistic missiles alone, and even if the US responds conventionally against Chinese mainland targets - these are easier to rebuild and harden due to them being embedded within the Chinese civil defense infrastructure and logistics than remote US bases on islands such as Guam and Okinawa that will simply be wiped out, period. But we all know that the US has always held the option of responding to conventional defeats with nuclear attacks. For this reason alone, China's effort should focus on building a very big nuclear arsenal to deter any US escalations. Having achieved that, I see absolutely no way for the US to achieve a lasting victory over Taiwan, no matter what sanctions and embargos they will pull off.
And also, please stop that "Responsible Greatpower" bullshit. Who ever believed that? According to the US propaganda that every country in the world seems to believe anyway, China is at the same time Nazi Germany, Soviet Union and Mordor.
You cant just appeal to Chinese morality or the image it tried to cultivate if you spent years demonizing and dehumanizing China before.
The most likely outcome is that China just says "You know what? How about I just fucking become everything you claim I am? How do you like that?" and the answer is: They wont like it, but they will suck it because PR and image is absolutely WORTHLESS in Great Power Politics. You either have a big stick or you get the big stick stuck into your behind and you'll have to say thank you to the one who did it to you.
Yes, such dumb ideas is what Washington tankies consider to be their desired result, because that's exactly the best outcome for the West: China's ambitions are kneecapped, either a pro-West CCP leadership/a leadership that is in fear of more US punishment comes to power and opens up the Chinese market for US multinationals to exploit, and of course the 1st island chain becomes a Chinese prison for all eternity.
Needless to say, the China of today, the China that has the dream of national rejuvenization, will never accept such an outcome and would rather become a Pariah like Russia after their Crimean episode for a few years than to turn into a semi-colonized shithole again. A
And this is actually the more likely outcome: China's market remains the biggest in the world, Germany, Japan and other economic powers desperately depend on the Chinese market for their own survival and cannot simply stop selling to China as they could with Russia. Furthermore, the Belt and Road Initiative as well as the alliance with Russia will mean that China's resource security and food security is ensured no matter what blockades the US will enact. China is basically a fortress nation, no matter how much the dogs outside bark and urinate against its walls.
All that's left is to talk about nuclear deterrence, really: China's arsenal of conventional weapons are strong enough to end US hegemony in Asia with ballistic missiles alone, and even if the US responds conventionally against Chinese mainland targets - these are easier to rebuild and harden due to them being embedded within the Chinese civil defense infrastructure and logistics than remote US bases on islands such as Guam and Okinawa that will simply be wiped out, period. But we all know that the US has always held the option of responding to conventional defeats with nuclear attacks. For this reason alone, China's effort should focus on building a very big nuclear arsenal to deter any US escalations. Having achieved that, I see absolutely no way for the US to achieve a lasting victory over Taiwan, no matter what sanctions and embargos they will pull off.
And also, please stop that "Responsible Greatpower" bullshit. Who ever believed that? According to the US propaganda that every country in the world seems to believe anyway, China is at the same time Nazi Germany, Soviet Union and Mordor.
You cant just appeal to Chinese morality or the image it tried to cultivate if you spent years demonizing and dehumanizing China before.
The most likely outcome is that China just says "You know what? How about I just fucking become everything you claim I am? How do you like that?" and the answer is: They wont like it, but they will suck it because PR and image is absolutely WORTHLESS in Great Power Politics. You either have a big stick or you get the big stick stuck into your behind and you'll have to say thank you to the one who did it to you.
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