China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

[maozedong]

Yes, we said too much nonsense and I think that the PLA Air Force has an advantage in terms of quantity, and quality is gradually dominated,such as Su-27,Su-30,J-11,J-11B,J-10 total amount much more then F-16,Mirage 2000,and J-8IIF can launch PL-12,this type fighter can be large amount produce.but the capability of AWACS(early warning aircraft command control) PLAAF maybe little bit backward than Taiwan Air Force,we don't know how PLAAF develop in this recently,but we have to mention that Taiwan will get US help their AWACS.
I think PLAAF should not carry out large-scale air combat with Taiwan,that will keeps the war more times,So both sides airforce have suffered heavy losses,This is not conducive to the mainland China rapid settlement of the Taiwan issue.
I still think PLA use ballistic missile and cruisemissile that is The most effective way.new DF-21 is able shoot down the SAT that means China is very accurate missile now.the very large amount missiles able destroy most Taiwan's military purpose and airbase,even most hangars are underground,but PLA missiletroop still can track air runways to destroy them.
The battlefield situation changes very quickly, but also relies on the ingenuity of commanders of both sides, this is the final victory of the factors.

 

[dh19440113]

DF-31A has recently achieved initial capability, and has a intercept range of around 11,000 KM. Thats the altitude where Navstar operate. One can only guess what its used for LOL.

Milstar 22,000, keyhole 30,000 km is still out of effective range.

DF-21 is more accurate right now, but its range 3100 km is only good enough to intercept weather satelite. Defense satelite are placed in higher orbit around 10,000-30,000 km.

 

[akinkhoo]

wouldn't the war start with... an missile attack? if you could crater half of the airfield and force their closure for repairing the runway. how bad of a position would taiwan be? does taiwan have defenses against an all out missile attack numbering close to a 1000?

 

[Kongo]

1000 missiles simply isn't enough. You have to take into account

1. the inaccuracy of the missiles,
2. the % that won't fire, since not all will work perfectly,
3. the fact that numbers fired in each salvo is limited by launchers,
4. that runways are hard to keep closed as a result of Runway Repair teams
5. some of the airfields are located such that mountains will block the missiles's path
6. some will be intercepted by PAC-3s
7. PAC-3s will also mean more ballistic missiles will have to be allocated per target in order to have some get through

 

[Gollevainen]

Well we have depated and chewed this ballistic missile threat hundreds of time in here, but as a little reminder, consider this:

Ballistic missiles are strategical weapons intended to be used with nuclear warheads. Even tacktical ballistic missiles, those which so often are referenced in these Taiwan-invasion wargames are intended to use primary as a nuclear weapons.
Now there is ofcourse option for conventional warheads, but the cost of the system against the caused damage is relatively poor. Its just isen't cost-effective to use ballistic missiles without nuclear warheads.
Single missile can carry around 500 kg warhead of TNT and deliver with rather poor accuracy. It's not by any means a percision strike weapon no matter whos standarts you use. The roles and task which given in above post are tasks of precision airstrikes and cruisemissiles, but not ballistic missiles.
The limited numbers of those missiles is another thing. You may think that 500 or 700 is a huge number, but in reality its not so impressive if you use conventional warheads. All the missiles fired together equals the explosive power of normal PLA group army's artilleryconseration firing about 10rounds. Thats not even the third of normal daily raters of fire. And does the explosive firepower of that sort of conseration eliminate the the enemy defence? No, thats not enough even scare of single division from its stations.
With ballistic missiles you can send that fire power little bit further than with normal artillery, but its effects are pretty much the same. And the area where the conventional warheads should be fired is the whole Taiwan, not some small section in the front where the artillerystrike is concerated.

So what next when you have fired all your 700 missiles? Send all your thousands of old fighters (j-6s, j-7s, q-5s) to perform Kamikaze operations?

 

[crobato]

1000 missiles simply isn't enough. You have to take into account

You will also have to take into account that only there are only 5 to 6 major airfields in Taiwan can be only be expected to be able to support fighter operations, and they're not interchangeable---the airbase supporting the F-16s cannot logistically maintain the Mirage 2000s.

1. the inaccuracy of the missiles,

Then again, they're being quoted with CEPs from 50m to 200m (WS-2). If you're putting at least 100 missiles directed at one large airfield, that's pretty good chances for the missiles.

2. the % that won't fire, since not all will work perfectly,
3. the fact that numbers fired in each salvo is limited by launchers,
4. that runways are hard to keep closed as a result of Runway Repair teams

And we have gone through this also. Can a runaway repair team do its job when randomly it can expect a followup missile or air strike? Once that team is gone, dead or equipment destroyed its non replaceable.

5. some of the airfields are located such that mountains will block the missiles's path

Nonsense from a geographic sense. Take a plane flight for once and watch an airfield from below or view it from a satellite perspective.

6. some will be intercepted by PAC-3s
7. PAC-3s will also mean more ballistic missiles will have to be allocated per target in order to have some get through

Missile interception success is a percentage and some of those PAC-3s are not going to find their targets either. Ballistic missiles can employ such means like decoys.

In any case, the purpose of ballistic missiles is not outright and complete destruction of the airbases, but to provide sufficient disruption, "shock" in other words, that can let the main airstrike come through.

 

[Gollevainen]

You will also have to take into account that only there are only 5 to 6 major airfields in Taiwan can be only be expected to be able to support fighter operations, and they're not interchangeable---the airbase supporting the F-16s cannot logistically maintain the Mirage 2000s.

I find this rather odd. If its true then its poor indication of ROCA's tactical flexibility. Where exactly is this information based on?

Then again, they're being quoted with CEPs from 50m to 200m (WS-2). If you're putting at least 100 missiles directed at one large airfield, that's pretty good chances for the missiles.

Only the most modern systems, DF-15 and WS-2 can theoretically achive those CEPs. Of those the DF-15 is still quoted ...With both system onboard the missile’s accuracy may increase to CEP 35~50m.. Those systems where still under development. WS-2 hardly even reaches Taiwanese shores, not to mention about inland targets.

And we have gone through this also. Can a runaway repair team do its job when randomly it can expect a followup missile or air strike? Once that team is gone, dead or equipment destroyed its non replaceable.

In peacetime perhaps that sort of excuse could be used by the roadbuilders...but in wartime...Can infantry squad stay in their trench by saying: "look they're shooting people's outhere!"? Nope.
Most of the chinese ballistic missiles have so poor CEP that the change that the missile strikes so "well" to the centre of the runway that it prevents all airactivites is not so good. The change that it hit exactly to the point where the last one did... And there's 20 million of so inhabitants in Taiwan, so hardly one repairteam lost makes a difference.

 

[maozedong]

why people only think PLA missile launch just so Rigid and unchanged? why people only mention ballistic missile ? forget the cruisemissile? it more accurate , the number of amount much more than ballistic.
War is all-encompassing, in that time all different weapon and troops will Participate.when missiles launch, other force already joint, mainland China can and achieve different kind of missiles launch from the land,the sea and the air.look at map, that little island so close mainland, PLA is able launch missiles from any Perspective to Taiwan, just part of east area is dead ends,JH7a combat range Absolutely can transfer to this dead end to attack those airbase,The question is what method you can use to achieve, rather than not, JH7a can be affixed sea flight.
my opinion is PLAAF should avoid a large-scale aerial combat with Taiwan, rather than no war, the Taiwan Air Force Base in the full range of the missile strikes, take-off and landing were seriously affected, which for the PLAAF has provided favorable conditions for air supremacy.
Recalling the history of the Chinese PLA in the many wars in China, and the Korean War, Vietnam War,In many battle, it looks as though things can not be achieved, However, they realized, Key is the commander's resourcefulness.
The battlefield situation changes very quickly, the commander will seize the opportunity is an important factor in the victory.

 

[Violet Oboe]

Please guys, lets not confuse ICBM/IRBM's and ASAT!

DF-21 and DF-31A are ballistic nuclear tipped missiles intended to hit targets on the surface of the earth. The ASAT is based on a missile derived from KT-1/DF-21 but this system has a completely different role than DF-21 IRBM (i.e. destroying enemy sats in low earth orbit!). :coffee:

As for PLA's missile reserves:
The often cited number of ~1000 DF-11/15 (Chen Shui Bian referred recently to 984 deployed missiles) includes only the missiles based in the ´Taiwan theater´. (i.e. parts of the Nanjing military region)
However all of the other PLA military regions are equipped with at least one or several more fully mobile DF-11/15 missile brigades!

Correspondingly the PLA should be capable of doubling the number of missiles vis a vis Taiwan on short notice to more than 2000 if an emergency arises. So don't worry that PLA's rocketeers run out of ammo...
(...and nothing said about WS-2!)

 

[crobato]

I find this rather odd. If its true then its poor indication of ROCA's tactical flexibility. Where exactly is this information based on?

That kind of information is open source and would not be hard to find. Go check it out yourself. There are only about 12 to 16 airbases and about half capable of supporting fighters.

Taiwan is not conducive to making a lot of small and seperated air fields like in in mainland China. The ROC certainly has not adopted anything like the Swedes have done which has built a lot of mini airfields and hangers that only support as few as 4 aircraft but is very well distributed.

Only the most modern systems, DF-15 and WS-2 can theoretically achive those CEPs. Of those the DF-15 is still quoted ...With both system onboard the missile’s accuracy may increase to CEP 35~50m.. Those systems where still under development. WS-2 hardly even reaches Taiwanese shores, not to mention about inland targets.

DF-11 and DF-11A is considered modern systems especially if they are built recently. Guidance systems are easily updated on missiles as they are built batch by batch, and upgraded on those previously made. Missle accuracy of CEP 35 to 50m is when you have Beidou support and look at earlier in the year, they just started launching a constellation of the new generation satellites.

WS-2 can reach 200 to 300km. Taiwan channel is 100 to 150km in different points.

In peacetime perhaps that sort of excuse could be used by the roadbuilders...but in wartime...Can infantry squad stay in their trench by saying: "look they're shooting people's outhere!"? Nope.

An airfield repair team has to work in the open, and that's quite a big risk for the trained personnel and equipment if they happen to be in the open when follow up strikes occur. Just because you have a change in work philosophy does not change the risk.

Most of the chinese ballistic missiles have so poor CEP that the change that the missile strikes so "well" to the centre of the runway that it prevents all airactivites is not so good. The change that it hit exactly to the point where the last one did... And there's 20 million of so inhabitants in Taiwan, so hardly one repairteam lost makes a difference.

Who told you that. The majority of the 900 missiles being pointed at Taiwan are the modern DF-11 type, which has been modded and refined throughout these years. And yes, a repair team makes a difference because these are specially trained engineers, and you cannot train people overnight to do their job and even training overnight is too late, because you lose one very fundamental day. Furthermore the specialized equipment that can be lost is as equally irreplaceable.