But if the two 052s really get another refit, it'll be weird. Usually PLAN's surface combatants can receive only one MLU. That ensures a service life of 30-35 years. I don't see 052 that important to get the 3rd refit.
054B/next generation frigate
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Why do you say that?
They could very well have a requirement for a given number of frigates in the mid 2020s era that mass production of 054B would not have occurred fast enough to emerge.
The current order of 20 054As could very much be finished and enter service by 2025-2026, all ships being fully combat ready given how familiar and mature the ships are and how familiar the shipyards are with building them.
But for 054Bs, not only are they only starting production of the first ship now (which if we assume means steel cutting, means the first ship is not likely to enter service before 2025, or 2024 at best) -- but the time needed to additionally develop procedures, tactics and familiarize the navy with the new ship, not to mention the additional time the shipyards would need to become more efficient with building the new ship, means they're not going to be commissioning 3-4 054Bs per year until a few years after 2025.
If the PLAN required a fleet of 50+ blue water capable frigates by the mid 2020s, what other ship was there to fulfill that requirement other than 054A?
I don't see any conflict here between what we said.
Actually there is significant differences between what we said.
You wrote that 054B will not enter mass production immediately, instead producing 2-4 hulls, followed by a pause in a few years, before restarting production.
What I'm saying, is that 054B will enter mass production immediately from when the first hull starts work, without a pause.
Whether there'll be any gap depends on the performance of the new IEP system. If it's problematic I don't see why you should keep producing more.
If there are untenable issues with the ship then sure, they will be forced to stop production.
However, you asked what the differences between our positions were.
Your position is that they would be planning to only build 2-4 ships initially, and then planning to have a pause for a few years before resuming production.
My position is that they would be planning to start off with large batch production of 054B from the outset, without a plan to have a pause after only an initial small batch.
Just my opinion but I feel they should not build so many 054As. It's not really that survivable nowadays with only 24-32 mid range SAMs. If we treat it simply as an ASW platform as many here have said, it feels like more 056s would be more cost effective
In recent years Korea/Japan have really upped their game in terms of numbers/missiles/tech and even Taiwan is loading up Ta Chiang with ~20 missiles
It's no longer feasible to try to overcome Japan/Korea/Taiwan/US with numbers alone. I'm worried that China might be devoting too much manpower/money into a class that could possibly become sitting ducks
In recent years Korea/Japan have really upped their game in terms of numbers/missiles/tech and even Taiwan is loading up Ta Chiang with ~20 missiles
It's no longer feasible to try to overcome Japan/Korea/Taiwan/US with numbers alone. I'm worried that China might be devoting too much manpower/money into a class that could possibly become sitting ducks
If they were building 20 054As without having built a large fleet of destroyers and without building more destroyers in the future and without building 054Bs in the future, then I would agree with you.
But let's not forget that 20 054As are being built in context of the overall expansion of the PLAN's size, with a significant number of world class destroyers already recently built (see the run of 055s and 052C/Ds so far) and with more to come this decade, and we know 054B is likely going to start kicking in as the last of these 20 054As enter service as well.
Going forwards into the medium term future, I expect PLAN's fleet of 054As will likely serve in a similar role to what their current 053H3s/two 054s serve, except significantly more capable for their respective era (especially in terms of ASW, and to an extent AAW) and more upgradeable.
I.e.: they will be multirole patrol frigates mostly relegated to green water duties (though able to operate in blue water if needed), mostly meant for low intensity opponents, but able to contribute as part of a high intensity conflict when operating alongside friendly air power and naval task groups.
They would certainly be vulnerable in a high intensity conflict if they had no friendly air power and more capable naval task groups to support them -- but frankly if that's what a conflict has come to then the PLA would have much larger issues at hand than the survivability of their 054As lol.
Ok. I guess we have different definition for "mass production". Let's say there are at least two ships being launched every year. After the first two commissioned, you find some serious issues and it may take a couple of years to solve. You could already have another 4-8 ships in production, which is awkward. So, you may either break a couple of years after the first one or two ships, or keep going but at a slower pace, maybe one ship a year. Either way, I don't call that mass production.
No, the difference between our positions, is that you are planning to have a pause in production.
Whereas in my position, there is no plan to have a pause in production -- they only have to pause production or slow down production if they come across serious issues. If they come across no issues, then they will be able to continue their mass production pace and accelerate into the 4 frigates/year rate that we've seen in the past with 054As at its peak (or even greater).
The entire basis of my position is that they are sufficiently confident with the 054B's subsystems that they are happy to go into mass production from the outset, but that they still the production run of 20 054As to pick up any slack in the event that they come across any issues.