Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member

The sentence is not harsh enough. Should deport them if they are foreigners.​

Coronavirus: first Hong Kong patient found with variant strain jailed 3 months for lying to health authorities, girlfriend gets 20 days​

  • Defendants had pleaded guilty to misleading investigators as to their relationship, whereabouts during contact-tracing effort
  • Their infections sparked citywide scare over more infectious Beta variant, prompting mass quarantine, testing orders

Defendant Victoria Marie Alcaide Guadiz declined to speak to reporters as she was whisked from court to a waiting vehicle after her sentencing. Photo: Winson Wong

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Coronavirus: first Hong Kong patient found with variant strain jailed 3 months for lying to health authorities, girlfriend gets 20 days​

  • Defendants had pleaded guilty to misleading investigators as to their relationship, whereabouts during contact-tracing effort
  • Their infections sparked citywide scare over more infectious Beta variant, prompting mass quarantine, testing orders

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Published: 11:14am, 5 Jul, 2021


Hong Kong’s first two
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patients found to be carrying a mutated strain of the coronavirus in the community were handed jail sentences on Monday for lying to officials about their whereabouts and sparking a citywide scare over the spread of the more transmissive Beta variant.

Syed Mohamed Rizvi, a 30-year-old engineer, pleaded guilty last month at Kowloon City Court to six counts of knowingly providing false information to officials, while his co-defendant, Victoria Marie Alcaide Guadiz, 31, a qualified nurse with whom he was living, admitted one count of the same offence.
Rizvi was sentenced to three months, while Guadiz was given 20 days and released immediately, as she had already spent that long in custody.

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plawolf

Lieutenant General

The sentence is not harsh enough. Should deport them if they are foreigners.​

Coronavirus: first Hong Kong patient found with variant strain jailed 3 months for lying to health authorities, girlfriend gets 20 days​

  • Defendants had pleaded guilty to misleading investigators as to their relationship, whereabouts during contact-tracing effort
  • Their infections sparked citywide scare over more infectious Beta variant, prompting mass quarantine, testing orders

Defendant Victoria Marie Alcaide Guadiz declined to speak to reporters as she was whisked from court to a waiting vehicle after her sentencing. Photo: Winson Wong

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Coronavirus: first Hong Kong patient found with variant strain jailed 3 months for lying to health authorities, girlfriend gets 20 days​

  • Defendants had pleaded guilty to misleading investigators as to their relationship, whereabouts during contact-tracing effort
  • Their infections sparked citywide scare over more infectious Beta variant, prompting mass quarantine, testing orders

Topic |
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Published: 11:14am, 5 Jul, 2021​

Hong Kong’s first two​

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patients found to be carrying a mutated strain of the coronavirus in the community were handed jail sentences on Monday for lying to officials about their whereabouts and sparking a citywide scare over the spread of the more transmissive Beta variant.​

Syed Mohamed Rizvi, a 30-year-old engineer, pleaded guilty last month at Kowloon City Court to six counts of knowingly providing false information to officials, while his co-defendant, Victoria Marie Alcaide Guadiz, 31, a qualified nurse with whom he was living, admitted one count of the same offence.​

Rizvi was sentenced to three months, while Guadiz was given 20 days and released immediately, as she had already spent that long in custody.​

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Indeed! This is where HK should learn from Singapore. Deport them after they have served their prison terms and ban them for life.

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Quickie

Colonel
In the UK, vaccines given free of charge to OLDER people first. That matters.

Thank you for proving that Unvaccinated group is far younger and healthier than Vaccinated group.

UK Vaccination Roll-out:
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Phase 1: Age 50+ older
Phase 2:
a) Age 40-49 first,
b) then Age 30-39,
c) then Ages 18-29 (LAST)

So yes, Unvaccinated group is younger and healthier. The vast majority of vaccinations in UK are among the older group first based on how the vaccines are rolled out.

Thanks for proving it.

Also, without knowing the baseline demographics, you can't assume they be normally distributed across the vaccination or unvaccinated groups.



Because older people are more likely to die compared to young people, with or without vaccines.
Because poorer people are more less likely to have good nutrition (which is associated with mortality), with or without vaccines.
Because uninsured people are less likely to have access to healthcare (which is associated with mortality), with or without vaccines.
Because Obese/Overweight people are more likely to die compared to healthier people, with or without vaccines.
Because comorbidity such as cardiovascular disease/diabetes/high BP are positively associated with death, with or without vaccines.

If you do not make the two groups comparable, you are not isolating the solitary effect of vaccine exposure alone. That is called a systematic bias in your results. Do you like biased results?


Pfizer and Moderna's large RCT does adjust for age via randomization so the two cohorts have similar age compositions.

It's not about reporting efficacy rates BY age groups, it's about eliminating the confounding effects of age by ensuring both groups are equal is age distribution. Randomization also ensures ALL other confounding variables, including residual confounding variables that is not measurable is equally distributed in both arms. Randomization takes care of all of the confounding variables.



Don't use low-quality observational data to make conclusions, because large well-designed RCT's (already published by Pfizer/Moderna) are superior in level of evidence than observational data?

In the hierarchy of quality data, there is:

#1: Meta-analysis of RCTs
#2: RCTs
#3: Cohorts with control arms.
#4: Case-control studies
#5: Case series observational data (This is where you are getting your data from)

The level of evidence that you are estimating the crude mortality rate is basically case-series from public active surveillance database based on self-reported data. There is no attempt at long-term collection of side-effects or adverse events between vaccine or unvaccinated in a systematic manner like in a prospective cohort clinical trial.


Wow, using your logic, FDA should just go ahead with population-level vaccination without requiring large well-designed RCTs.

You are completely clueless if you think just active surveillance self-reporting on population-level can replace the rigorous FDA process of requiring RCT study designs.

Also, vaccination roll-out is targeted to older people first, so the vaccinated group is definitively OLDER than the unvaccinated group. So there is an inherent systematic bias in the way you are interpreting the results.

Thank you for proving that Unvaccinated group is far younger and healthier than Vaccinated group.

UK Vaccination Roll-out:
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Phase 1: Age 50+ older
Phase 2:
a) Age 40-49 first,
b) then Age 30-39,
c) then Ages 18-29 (LAST)

I knew you would go towards this line of argument. With 63% vaccinated with 2 doses, it would have covered quite a few of the younger population if only part of them with only one dose.

Going back to your previous post, I could also argue that the younger population is more likely to be vaccinated since it would give them the license to go anywhere, the same for the richer and more educated with health insurance because they're more likely to take care of their health. The rest of the parameters like "More people with Healthcare Insurance", "Less barriers to healthcare access", "Less with alcohol/substance abuse", "less with healthcare illiteracy" tend to tie with "the rich and more educated with health insurance" and therefore go with the vaccinated group.



As to the rest of your post, you're making it seem like I'm against the merits of doing randomized controlled trials, which I never did.
If you look at my previous posts, I'm always against those usual MSM making a comparison between the different vaccines when there are so many factors that will make them difficult to be compared fairly.

I think my main point is that we're only interested in the real-life result of that UK vaccination program in particular. The question of whether the efficacy result may be or may not be swayed by what you call confounding variables, we will have to wait for the authorities and their experts to come out with actual facts, that is if they ever will.

The other thing is that you look like you are very game on defending the efficacy of vaccines such as Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca by pointing toward what you would call confounding variables that would sway the efficacy result towards the negative.

I think that you should argue the same as well for Sinovac and Sinopharm whenever a not-so-encouraging result comes from the vaccination programs in some countries, as reported by some MSM even when the vaccination program is too early into it.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I knew you would go towards this line of argument. With 63% vaccinated with 2 doses, it would have covered quite a few of the younger population if only part of them with only one dose.
That's exactly the point. Thank you for agreeing with me that unequal distribution of age composition exists. "Quite a few" = unequality = systematic bias in interpretation of results.

Since they are not equal in two-dose vaccination (or even one-dose vaccination), there is a systematic bias in the interpretation in the results due to unequal age distribution. "Quite a few" is not equal, you need equality in age distributions to avoid systematic bias, "Quite a few" is not sufficient.

Also, according official UK data on vaccination rates by age bands. Younger people are significantly less likely to be two-dosed vaccinated compared to older people.

If you have unequal distribution of age in the vaccinated or unvaccinated cohort (two-doses), then you have a systematic bias in the results.

1625505396095.png
Source:
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Going back to your previous post, I could also argue that the younger population is more likely to be vaccinated since it would give them the license to go anywhere,

UK only started offering vaccines to <40 age people starting in
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, so how can young people (dead last in priority) be more likely to be vaccinated when they weren't even offered the vaccine until just recently? Old people have been receiving vaccines since April, almost 3 months earlier.

Also, the official UK data chart shows younger people are less likely to be vaccinated, based on how phase 2C of vaccination is rolled out. The data clearly shows younger are less vaccinated.


the same for the richer and more educated with health insurance because they're more likely to take care of their health.

Indeed, richer people are more likely to be vaccinated, see chart (95% vs 87%).

1625505465605.png

and rich people have better health outcomes, with or without vaccines.

The rest of the parameters like "More people with Healthcare Insurance", "Less barriers to healthcare access", "Less with alcohol/substance abuse", "less with healthcare illiteracy" tend to tie with "the rich and more educated with health insurance" and therefore go with the vaccinated group.

UK is a single-payer healthcare system with universal healthcare. Even the poorest people have healthcare insurance, and therefore access to healthcare. UK NHS is not limited only to the rich folks. Everyone has access to healthcare insurance, regardless of education status either.

So Age and Comorbidity are likely the biggest predictors.

As to the rest of your post, you're making it seem like I'm against the merits of doing randomized controlled trials, which I never did.

Then why do you value low-quality self-reported observational data such as active surveillance database that isn't even intended to establish causality, only correlation?

If you look at my previous posts, I'm always against those usual MSM making a comparison between the different vaccines when there are so many factors that will make them difficult to be compared fairly.
What are these different factors, I am curious....

I think my main point is that we're only interested in the real-life result of that UK vaccination program in particular.

The "results" you are citing are self-reported case series data, the lowest quality of evidence in the hierarchy of level of evidence. They are very susceptible to systematic bias if you are not controlling for confounding factors. That's why scientists don't take this data seriously, only to provide association/correlation, but NEVER to prove causality due to so many risks and biases inherent in the study design.
The question of whether the efficacy result may be or may not be swayed by what you call confounding variables, we will have to wait for the authorities and their experts to come out with actual facts, that is if they ever will.

There is, it's called the Pfizer/Moderna RCT Trials. The data already exists, it adjusts for confounding using randomization. You are actively seeking sources of data that have high likelihood of bias due to lack of randomization.


The other thing is that you look like you are very game on defending the efficacy of vaccines such as Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca by pointing toward what you would call confounding variables that would sway the efficacy result towards the negative.

There is no confounding factors due to randomization. There are confounding variables in your self-reported case series observational due to LACK of randomization.

Randomization in Pfizer/Moderna/AZ/Sinopharm/Sinovac trials eliminate or minimize all confounding variables, so they aren't an issue.

You clearly don't have any clue about epidemiology, biostatistics, or clinical trial designs. I advise you to look up how to control for confounding variables in RCTs and observational study designs.

I think that you should argue the same as well for Sinovac and Sinopharm whenever a not-so-encouraging result comes from the vaccination programs in some countries, as reported by some MSM even when the vaccination program is too early into it.

From what I understand, Sinopharm's clinical trial protocol used a too stringent inclusion criteria for non-COVID cases, so it reduced efficacy number for Sinopharm. It has nothing to do with confounding factors, but how cases and non-cases were identified in the inclusion critieria. You are mixing up confounding variables with the inclusion criteria and patient identification within a study protocol.
 
Last edited:

Quickie

Colonel
That's exactly the point. Thank you for agreeing with me that unequal distribution of age composition exists. "Quite a few" = unequality = systematic bias in interpretation of results.

Since they are not equal in two-dose vaccination (or even one-dose vaccination), there is a systematic bias in the interpretation in the results due to unequal age distribution. "Quite a few" is not equal, you need equality in age distributions to avoid systematic bias, "Quite a few" is not sufficient.

Also, according official UK data on vaccination rates by age bands. Younger people are significantly less likely to be two-dosed vaccinated compared to older people.

If you have unequal distribution of age in the vaccinated or unvaccinated cohort (two-doses), then you have a systematic bias in the results.

View attachment 74340
Source:
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UK only started offering vaccines to <40 age people starting in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, so how can young people (dead last in priority) be more likely to be vaccinated when they weren't even offered the vaccine until just recently? Old people have been receiving vaccines since April, almost 3 months earlier.

Also, the official UK data chart shows younger people are less likely to be vaccinated, based on how phase 2C of vaccination is rolled out. The data clearly shows younger are less vaccinated.




Indeed, richer people are more likely to be vaccinated, see chart (95% vs 87%).

View attachment 74341

and rich people have better health outcomes, with or without vaccines.



UK is a single-payer healthcare system with universal healthcare. Even the poorest people have healthcare insurance, and therefore access to healthcare. UK NHS is not limited only to the rich folks. Everyone has access to healthcare insurance, regardless of education status either.

So Age and Comorbidity are likely the biggest predictors.



Then why do you value low-quality self-reported observational data such as active surveillance database that isn't even intended to establish causality, only correlation?


What are these different factors, I am curious....



The "results" you are citing are self-reported case series data, the lowest quality of evidence in the hierarchy of level of evidence. They are very susceptible to systematic bias if you are not controlling for confounding factors. That's why scientists don't take this data seriously, only to provide association/correlation, but NEVER to prove causality due to so many risks and biases inherent in the study design.


There is, it's called the Pfizer/Moderna RCT Trials. The data already exists, it adjusts for confounding using randomization. You are actively seeking sources of data that have high likelihood of bias due to lack of randomization.




There is no confounding factors due to randomization. There are confounding variables in your self-reported case series observational due to LACK of randomization.

Randomization in Pfizer/Moderna/AZ/Sinopharm/Sinovac trials eliminate or minimize all confounding variables, so they aren't an issue.

You clearly don't have any clue about epidemiology, biostatistics, or clinical trial designs. I advise you to look up how to control for confounding variables in RCTs and observational study designs.



From what I understand, Sinopharm's clinical trial protocol used a too stringent inclusion criteria for non-COVID cases, so it reduced efficacy number for Sinopharm. It has nothing to do with confounding factors, but how cases and non-cases were identified in the inclusion critieria. You are mixing up confounding variables with the inclusion criteria and patient identification within a study protocol.

You are actively seeking sources of data that have high likelihood of bias due to lack of randomization.

Wow...you accused me of a lot of things. I didn't actively look for the data source. Someone posted the information on this thread.

The other thing I wanted to say is that by shifting the number of deaths to the older age group, thereby increasing the death protection rate for the younger group to over 90% for example, the death protection rate for the older age group would have to go down to lower than 56% (to maybe 50% or lower depending on the death rate of the different age groups) in order to arrive at an overall protection rate of 56%. So, this is not really good news for older age people even if the younger age group has an over 90% protection rate.


I agree with what @KYli has said in the previous post which I've missed out on earlier.

However, facts speak louder than words. Within a few weeks, if the mortality is still double digits then we know the vaccines work well. If the mortality is low hundreds, then we know the vaccines work but not as good as it claimed to be. If the mortality is a few hundreds, then we know the vaccines don't work or have only limited use.


Personally, I trust more on real-life results of vaccination programs in many different countries. We'll have to wait for the completion of the vaccines programs in countries around the world to know the real outcome.

So time will tell what is right or wrong. Time to move on to more interesting stuff.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
I think for singapore case, most chinese had been molded by PAP gov to see themselves as 'Singaporean chinese" rather than Chinese Singaporean.

In fact we have a strange situation for Singaporean to differentiate themselves by referring to mainlander as' PRCian', 'ah Tiong' or officially MSM used the term 'Chinese national' whilst referring the local Chinese as 'Chinese'.

Singaporean chinese unlike Chinese Malaysian has never pro China. It politically incorrect to be pro China here

As for whether China is oblige to come to Singapore aid because of share heritage and ethnicity, my view is they are not obliged. Just treat Singaporean like any foreigner because local Chinese in general never sees themselves as Chinese but Singaporean

.
Help from China will always be there for Singapore, if they can just ask for it nicely.
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
Putting aside national differences, does anyone know if India had sorted out problems with their Covaxin inactivated vaccine?

It is hard to find info on it since it is mainly being used domestically in India with very few exports. As such you only get the terrible Indian media's jingoistic take like it's the world's greatest.

Would be interesting to see if there is a similar effectiveness to the Chinese inactivated vaccines.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The duty of the PRC is to protect PRC citizens. There are Chinese diaspora all over the world. It would be a gross overreach, not to mention logistical nightmare, to claim right of protection for all ethnic Chinese across the globe.
So why you complain about Singapore not toeing to China The same argument can be applied to Singapore Their duty is for the security of Singapore citizen. At least the American provide Singapore with sophisticated weaponry to defend themselves. And implicit guarantee that any attack to Singapore will tripwire US response.

For You information There is no US base or defense treaty with US. Unlike Japan or South Korea. Singapore does not line up their foreign policy with US. Case in point after TAM all western countries, including Japan and South Korea boycott China and put economic embargo on China Singapore stood by China even LKY come out in open and said Deng did the right thing. Nobody ask China to intervene or send marine for OC. But there is humanitarian gesture that every big countries can make without damaging relation with SEA countries. China just fail in this respect. I understand that it was Jiang Zhemin administration and the bureaucracy at that time is not sophisticated. And news can easily censored before internet. But Chinese public did express their outrage. It will be different if it were to occur now. Xi spend 17 years in Fujian the home province of most SEA chinese.

Only after much prodding by then SAR Tung Chee Hwa finally China did issue meek statement condemning the riot But too little and too late. Tung Chee Hwa has to do because there are half million Chindo descendant in Hongkong. All those people who return to China to built new China but mistreated at Cultural revolution and at the end of CR were allowed to leave China and HOngkong is the only place that welcome them. Over the year they make up influential group in HOngkong.

Chin doing nothing show how impotent they are and will be subject to ridicule. If the same thing happened to white population say in Africa I have no doubt the US or GB will bomb them to Smithers
 
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