Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Quickie]

you didn't understand my post. I was trying to answer Henry K's question on why CCP was indifferent to the suffering of oversea Chinese.

CCP was a revolutionary party before Deng. it pursued radical ideology at home, and supported revolution all around the world with treasure and blood. it didn't see the world from the perspective of nationalism. a businessman in Shanghai might suffer more than a Chinese businessman in Jakarta.

oversea Chinese played a big part in the Republican Revolution in 1911. historically they've had a deep relationship with the KMT. many of them also saw KMT as the legitimate government.

I would say as much as there are those that make an effort in the revolution, I would say a much larger proportion of them only take a customary interest in the politics of their former homeland. As to which side they're on, you will only hear voices for the KMT and none for the communist as you would be immediately get arrested and jailed for being a communist sympathizer especially when you're an ethnic Chinese in those times.

 

[tch1972]

You are making two points:
1. You advocate and demand PRC to intervene foreign country's domestic affairs on behalf of foreign nationals of Chinese heritage, including your own country (in case of Singapore).
2. You take Etheopian Jews as a "good" example.

My thoughts:
The first point will do more damage to people you want to protect including yourself, because you are alienating yourself with your other countrymen (Indonesian, Malay or Indians). It does not matter where you claim your heritage. Remember China is not your home anymore some long time ago since your ancestors left the territory of Qing dynasty.

The first point does NOT help your cause in the mind of PRC, nor mainland Chinese, precisely because of your complain and condemnation of their "inactivity". One can not expect sympathy for other people by condemning them, not even your own brothers. Slap your brother in the face on the street and see what happens later when you are in need of help.

The first point also demonstrate that you expect privilege of ethnic Chinese than other citizens. That is colonialism in nature, no difference from the European colonialism in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Are you in support of colonialism of your own but "hate" colonialism by others? You have to answer the question first before continue any further with your demand.

The second point is irrelevant. Israel did NOT exist before 1945. All early Israelis at the foundation of the state of Israel are citizens of various countries. The state made it a law that grant any Jews to be eligible to Israeli citizen. The Ethiopian Jews are as much Israeli citizen as the Jews in 1945 so long as they choose to declare so. The Israeli government was simply rescuing its own citizens residing abroad.

The situation is similar to any foreign born person to Chinese parent(s) who automatically received foreign citizenship by place of birth. These Chinese are legally Chinese citizen from their birth so long as they make the claim before the age of 18. This is in the law. PRC would protect them as much as Israel protected those Ethiopian Jews in 1991. And China has demonstrated that will and capability in Libya in 2011.

91 chartered Chinese flights. 35 chartered foreign flights. 12 military airlifters. 11 chartered foreign sea ferries. 5 Chinese merchant ships and one naval frigate. 35860 Chinese citizens and 2100 foreign citizens from 12 countries.

I also want to clarify one thing about your "China abandoned its daughters". At the 1950s, SEA ethnic Chinese were given the choice of claiming either Chinese citizenship or citizenship of residing countries when these countries gained independence. The ones who chose Chinese (PRC) citizenship were repatriated to mainland China, about 600000 as I remember. I had one school mate being one of them. The ones choose to stay are pro-KMT, they choose the citizenship of the host country, I don't know if they could have chosen "citizenship" of ROC. Either way most of them are suspicious of PRC, or outright hate PRC. Now I ask you who abandoned whom? Why don't you call "ROC" abandoning their own loyal citizens?

It is always a tragedy when people suffering regardless their political loyalty, BUT the cause and responsibility MUST remain clear and just.

I think for singapore case, most chinese had been molded by PAP gov to see themselves as 'Singaporean chinese" rather than Chinese Singaporean.

In fact we have a strange situation for Singaporean to differentiate themselves by referring to mainlander as' PRCian', 'ah Tiong' or officially MSM used the term 'Chinese national' whilst referring the local Chinese as 'Chinese'.

Singaporean chinese unlike Chinese Malaysian has never pro China. It politically incorrect to be pro China here

As for whether China is oblige to come to Singapore aid because of share heritage and ethnicity, my view is they are not obliged. Just treat Singaporean like any foreigner because local Chinese in general never sees themselves as Chinese but Singaporean

.

 

[Phead128]

Let's do a quick vaccine efficacy check.

Quoting from article.

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Death protection rate (vaccinated with 2 dose) when comfirmed infected with Delta variant: (67/0.58 - 50/0.42)/(67/0.58) ==> -0.03%

Meaning that the vaccinated patient has 3% more chances to die than an unvaccinated patient! i.e., not a 50% to 50% chance.

Bro I took epidemiology course four times in my life, during undergrad, masters, and PhD. I have never seen such ridiculous mathematics gymnastics in my life. I have reported you for spreading false information about vaccines. Hopefully you get a good ban.

You can't compare vaccine efficacy against death like that. It totally makes zero sense.

Nobody calculates risk-ratios like that using the efficacy rate as a denominator.

But...

Death protection rate after completion of 2 doses. : (67/0.37 - 50/0.63)/(67/0.37) ==> 56.2% !

This type of mathematics to calculate risk-ratios DOES NOT EXIST in epidemiology. Where do you make up these formulas from? Nobody divides case counts by efficacy rates, subtracted by vaccinated (what?) DIVIDED by unvaccination. This is a joke bro.

The only silver lining is the case fatality rate for this virus strain is surprising low for unvaccinated :

(117-50)/(92029 x 58%) ==> < 0.12% ! (less because (117-50) include those with 1 jab.)

What the hell is really going on?

Wow, so death protection rate of the vaccine = (0.5/0.37- 0.5/0.63)/(0.5/0.37) ==> 41% !

I guess it still means something. Instead of 100 persons dying, 59 died, and 41 saved. But why the western MSM isn't screaming against the vaccine?

It's because you never took a single Epidemiology class in your life and you are making up formulas that never existed in Epidemiology or Biostatistics. That's what is going on.

Reported for trolling. Have a good ban, fella.

 

[getready]

They never cared when the vaccines can be delivered and how many Taiwan people are going to die. All they care is how to get rid of any slight shred of connection with mainland China, either cargo transportation between or mainland company (Fosun). But in the end they just can't win.

Tsai is a murderer to me. In her crazy zeal to prevent any credit given to mainland she has effectively killed Taiwanese. Right from the start she has politicised a pandemic and take shots at mainland and allow wild anti mainland rumours to circulate in Taiwan that does not help in a health crisis. Hopefully justice will be served eventually and she goes to jail.

 

[broadsword]

Bro I took epidemiology course four times in my life, during undergrad, masters, and PhD. I have never seen such ridiculous mathematics gymnastics in my life. I have reported you for spreading false information about vaccines. Hopefully you get a good ban.

You can't compare vaccine efficacy against death like that. It totally makes zero sense.

Nobody calculates risk-ratios like that using the efficacy rate as a denominator.



This type of mathematics to calculate risk-ratios DOES NOT EXIST in epidemiology. Where do you make up these formulas from? Nobody divides case counts by efficacy rates, subtracted by vaccinated (what?) DIVIDED by unvaccination. This is a joke bro.




It's because you never took a single Epidemiology class in your life and you are making up formulas that never existed in Epidemiology or Biostatistics. That's what is going on.

Reported for trolling. Have a good ban, fella.

Why so much unnecessary drama? He has been here far longer than you for you to presume his guilt in making up numbers. If you think he was wrong, just give your correct answers without the accompanying personal attack.

 

[KYli]

Just a few weeks ago, MSM was using UAE and Bahrain offering a booster shot as a sign that Chinese vaccines don't work.

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[Phead128]

Are you sure you haven't seen this most basic of formula in your epidemiology course?

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Vaccine effectiveness (VE) % = ((Attack Rate unvaccinated – Attack Rate vaccinated) / Attack Rate unvaccinated) X 100 Attack Rate unvaccinated

If you think the way I calculated death protection rate, the case fatality rate, etc. Show me where did I go wrong, which anyway I'm very sure I did my calculation correctly.

Don't just blow up on people's faces and demand someone be banned.

Show the way you would go about calculating the figures and then we can compare them.

Your math is wrong and the conclusion you draw is wrong and the anti-vax narrative you are pushing based on this conclusion is also wrong.

1. Correlation does not imply causation. It's not possible to draw causality conclusions from observational databases, only large well-designed RCTs. The two large RCT's by Pfizer/Moderna did not establish any causal relationship between vaccines and death. (In fact, the placebo arm for the Pfizer trial had even more deaths than vaccine arm (6 deaths total, 4 in placebo, 2 in vaccine), but we can't conclude that salt+water is more deadly than vaccines

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. The 2 who died in vaccine arm was inline with natural death rate of population

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.)

2. No adjustment for potential confounders such as age, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, healthcare access, education level, etc.... It's scientific treason to draw conclusions based on univariate analysis without adjusting for potential confounders, because it can lead to a systematic bias in the results. You have to also assess whether death rates occurred in line with the normal death rate for the general population or not.

3. Lack of p-value or 95% confidence interval to determine statistical significance. You can't draw conclusions on differences without doing a hypothesis test. Any observed differences might not be statistically significant. You have to adjust for confounders, then perform a hypothesis test to generate a p-value to make conclusions on differences.

 

[supersnoop]

On the one hand, CNN wants people to get vaccinated and explain vaccines don't offer 100% protection. On the other, CNN just has to demonize Chinese vaccines and praises Pfizer and Moderna.

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I read this article and I actually have a somewhat different take…

I believe that Delta variant is leading to the need for another booster for some people with doses of any vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, J&J, etc.). To make this development not look like a failure, they are softening the blow by softening their initial criticism of Chinese vaccines. Before the language was pointed in a way that they were completely useless, in those articles the quote from Jin Dong Yin was something like “the Chinese need to explain the situation in the Seychelles…”, now they use a quote from him like “may be as simple as needing another booster or higher dosage…”

So now the MSM is finally ready to push the idea of reducing hospitalization as an important factor, since Delta will increase caseload.

Furthermore, the AZ vaccine is becoming less and less well received as Asian countries and North America are rejecting it.

Another possibility is since the supply of mRNA vaccines is steadily increasing, there is an export opportunity of selling them as boosters to current users of Chinese vaccines. Although there are no full studies yet,

 

[KYli]

I read this article and I actually have a somewhat different take…

I believe that Delta variant is leading to the need for another booster for some people with doses of any vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, J&J, etc.). To make this development not look like a failure, they are softening the blow by softening their initial criticism of Chinese vaccines. Before the language was pointed in a way that they were completely useless, in those articles the quote from Jin Dong Yin was something like “the Chinese need to explain the situation in the Seychelles…”, now they use a quote from him like “may be as simple as needing another booster or higher dosage…”

So now the MSM is finally ready to push the idea of reducing hospitalization as an important factor, since Delta will increase caseload.

Furthermore, the AZ vaccine is becoming less and less well received as Asian countries and North America are rejecting it.

Another possibility is since the supply of mRNA vaccines is steadily increasing, there is an export opportunity of selling them as boosters to current users of Chinese vaccines. Although there are no full studies yet,

That's what I said. MSM is forced to change tune as a resurgence in cases in the UK and Israel is making their vaccines look ineffective. In order to boost the confidence of their own vaccines, they can't talk down the Chinese vaccines like they used to. So they change the narrative by saying infections and herd immunity isn't important. The most important for the vaccines is to reduce hospitalizations and deaths. Similarly, they bring out the lab theory whenever it benefits them. The truth doesn't matter. MSM is mere propaganda to serve the Western interests.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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So when the news there was an outbreak in the Seychelles pointing to how they took Chinese vaccines, they didn't mention that 5 of the 6 that died took AstraZeneca.