Is the best period of PLA watching behind us?

[tamsen_ikard]

I think the 10 years from 2010-2020 were the best years for PLA watchers. PLA was rapidly introducing new platforms for the first time and catching up. These were platforms and technologies sometimes only the US posessed. There was a lot of uncertainty about if China is able come up with those platforms and if they could catch up to the west. I think a lot of people under-estimated China back then and that under-estimation created alot of doubt and anticipation about China showing something new and proving people wrong. This is what made PLA watching interesting and exciting in my view.

Let's look at Air force in the last 10 years: We had j-20 and FC-31 stealth fighters, new AWACS aircrafts including KJ-600 which is carrier based AWACS, New air-to-air missile equally capable or even better than Amraam and finally Self-developed large scale transport aircraft. In terms of platforms or technology, I don't see any gap between US and China anymore. The only thing remaining is the stealth Bomber. Once that is introduced by China, they will essentially catch up to US in terms of Air platforms and significant technologies. Sure, the US has a lot more numbers than China when it comes to these advanced platforms, but then its just a numbers game and the excitement in terms of seeing new platforms will no longer be there.

Navy: We had the first ever PLA carrier, there was a lot of excitement about that. Then came the self-developed carrier. And finally now, CATOBAR carrier. I think PLA has essentially caught up on this front as well in terms of platforms. There has been huge exciting platforms in terms new destroyers like 052D which has the first universal VLS, Then came type-055 cruiser, We also had significant advancement in terms of SLBM with JL-3 missile and associated submarine. We are seeing carrier based air-craft development as well such as KJ-600 and FC-31. We also saw pictures of the new rail gun.

In ground force: The most exciting thing was the new PLA uniform which I think surpasses whatever US and the west has. The new PLA small arms family is also quite exciting to watch develop. PLA rocket force showed us significant advanced such as the carrier killer missile and DF-41. In this front also, China has firmly caught up with the US.

Overall, I feel we had so much development in the last 10 years that we are probably over the peak PLA catchup - new development phase. In the next 10-20 years, we will see some new stuff like the stealth bomber. But it will mostly be about incremental development of existing platforms plus catching up with US in terms of numbers. The pace of seeing and speculating new tech will slow down drastically.

So, that's why I would say that PLA watching has become alot more boring now and this slowdown will remain for the foreseeable future.

In fact the excitement and speculation about China watching has moved away from the military tech aspect to things like Chip tech and China's strategic assets like BRI or the Yuan replacing the dollar aspect. PLA watching has moved beyond seeing new tech to actual PLA operations like PLA air operations around Taiwan or even the recent PLA flyby near Malaysia. We also see alot more activity in those kinds of threads now.

Thoughts?

 

[siegecrossbow]

I'd agree with you if it is regarding censorship of Chinese military BBS/photos/videos but you'd be naive if you think that new tech will slow down. Stuff in the pipeline just off the top of my head:

1) Nuclear aircraft carrier with J-15B/J-21(31?) and KJ-600.
2) Hypersonic spaceplane capable of reconnaissance and rapid goods delivery/satellite capture.
3) Sixth generation fighter (possibly unmanned, carry long range AAM internally, OODS and possibly carrying DEW for offensive/defensive purposes).
4) Type-055B with anti-satellite/mid-stage missile defense capabilities and railgun/laser CIWS.
5) Stealth UCAV. Not just flying-wing bomber platforms but also fighter aircraft like Darksword.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I'd agree with you if it is regarding censorship of Chinese military BBS/photos/videos but you'd be naive if you think that new tech will slow down. Stuff in the pipeline just off the top of my head:

1) Nuclear aircraft carrier with J-15B/J-21(31?) and KJ-600.
2) Hypersonic spaceplane capable of reconnaissance and rapid goods delivery/satellite capture.
3) Sixth generation fighter (possibly unmanned, carry long range AAM internally, OODS and possibly carrying DEW for offensive/defensive purposes).
4) Type-055B with anti-satellite/mid-stage missile defense capabilities and railgun/laser CIWS.
5) Stealth UCAV. Not just flying-wing bomber platforms but also fighter aircraft like Darksword.

Even this list seems like a slowdown to me. Nuclear carrier doesn't add much in terms of new capabilities over a normal CATOBAR. Yes it requires less fuel, but the issue can be solved with more fuel replenishment ships.

Type-055 with railgun might be interesting to watch but missile defense is quite boring and there is not much speculation or doubt about whether China can do it or not.

6th gen is more than 10 years away probably, that's a long wait. In fact, I don't think 6th gen will be all that significant in terms of advancement compared to 5th gen which introduced stealth tech. I think the change from 5th gen to 6th gen will be more incremental. Yes we will see more advanced sensors or more autonomy, but not a significant change in air warfare that stealth tech introduced.

The most exciting new tech area will probably be the drones. Not just stealth UCAV but various uses of drones like mini drone swarms and drone helpers and missile carriers for dog-fights and so on.

 

[weig2000]

I feel that you just want to write a summary post with a catchy title.

No. The best of PLA watch is not over. It actually has just begun. Your framing may have to do with somehow you consider the China story is one of a coming-from-behind story. Many of us here will consider the real game starts when China has finally caught up with the US capability-wise. In other words, the real game we anticipate is that between peer players.

In that sense, this decade will be the one that China will have finally caught up in all strategic platforms, which include nuclear-powered carriers, next-generation SSN & SSBN, strategic stealth bomber, large and stealth UAV/UCAV, underwater drones, hyper-sonic missiles and much more.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I feel that you just want to write a summary post with a catchy title.

No. The best of PLA watch is not over. It actually has just begun. Your framing may have to do with somehow you consider the China story is one of a coming-from-behind story. Many of us here will consider the real game starts when China has finally caught up with the US capability-wise. In other words, the real game we anticipate is that between peer players.

In that sense, this decade will be the one that China will have finally caught up in all strategic platforms, which include nuclear-powered carriers, next-generation SSN & SSBN, strategic stealth bomber, large and stealth UAV/UACV, underwater drones, hyper-sonic missiles and much more.

Yes, you are right that it will be interesting to watch once PLA has caught up with US and we see how two tech peers come up with different solutions to the same problems. There will be an excitement to watch new things. But this new advancement period will be extremely slow in terms of development. We might see 1 new platform in 20 years. Compare that with the last 10 years when we saw a lot of new platforms from China in air, naval and ground forces. PLA watching will involve very very low trickle of news.

 

[Blitzo]

I think the 10 years from 2010-2020 were the best years for PLA watchers. PLA was rapidly introducing new platforms for the first time and catching up. These were platforms and technologies sometimes only the US posessed. There was a lot of uncertainty about if China is able come up with those platforms and if they could catch up to the west. I think a lot of people under-estimated China back then and that under-estimation created alot of doubt and anticipation about China showing something new and proving people wrong. This is what made PLA watching interesting and exciting in my view.

Let's look at Air force in the last 10 years: We had j-20 and FC-31 stealth fighters, new AWACS aircrafts including KJ-600 which is carrier based AWACS, New air-to-air missile equally capable or even better than Amraam and finally Self-developed large scale transport aircraft. In terms of platforms or technology, I don't see any gap between US and China anymore. The only thing remaining is the stealth Bomber. Once that is introduced by China, they will essentially catch up to US in terms of Air platforms and significant technologies. Sure, the US has a lot more numbers than China when it comes to these advanced platforms, but then its just a numbers game and the excitement in terms of seeing new platforms will no longer be there.

Navy: We had the first ever PLA carrier, there was a lot of excitement about that. Then came the self-developed carrier. And finally now, CATOBAR carrier. I think PLA has essentially caught up on this front as well in terms of platforms. There has been huge exciting platforms in terms new destroyers like 052D which has the first universal VLS, Then came type-055 cruiser, We also had significant advancement in terms of SLBM with JL-3 missile and associated submarine. We are seeing carrier based air-craft development as well such as KJ-600 and FC-31. We also saw pictures of the new rail gun.

In ground force: The most exciting thing was the new PLA uniform which I think surpasses whatever US and the west has. The new PLA small arms family is also quite exciting to watch develop. PLA rocket force showed us significant advanced such as the carrier killer missile and DF-41. In this front also, China has firmly caught up with the US.

Overall, I feel we had so much development in the last 10 years that we are probably over the peak PLA catchup - new development phase. In the next 10-20 years, we will see some new stuff like the stealth bomber. But it will mostly be about incremental development of existing platforms plus catching up with US in terms of numbers. The pace of seeing and speculating new tech will slow down drastically.

So, that's why I would say that PLA watching has become alot more boring now and this slowdown will remain for the foreseeable future.

In fact the excitement and speculation about China watching has moved away from the military tech aspect to things like Chip tech and China's strategic assets like BRI or the Yuan replacing the dollar aspect. PLA watching has moved beyond seeing new tech to actual PLA operations like PLA air operations around Taiwan or even the recent PLA flyby near Malaysia. We also see alot more activity in those kinds of threads now.

Thoughts?

In terms of PLA watching, I broadly categorize areas of interest into "new systems to be developed" and "confirmed/existing systems to procure"..

There is quite a lot that has been alluded to and rumoured to in recent years that we have yet to see and some things in the longer term that we can reasonably expect, in terms of "new systems that we will expect to get either revelations of or significant news/movement on" over the next decade (2021-2031):

Air domain:
- engine developments and integration onto aircraft (WS-15 in particular of course)
- new J-15B variant
- J-15D/16D EW variants in their final forms
- new force multiplier aircraft (Y-9 airframe derived and potentially Y-20 airframe derived)
- J-XY (both carrier based and potentially land based)
- twin seat J-20
- H-20
- new UAVs in general (HALE, MALE, AEW, helicopter, small size)
- stealthy strike UCAVs (GJ-11, and others)
- A2A UCAVs/loyal wingman aircraft (Dark Sword? Something else? Who knows)
- 6th generation fighter
- new helicopter designs
- hypersonic UAV pursuits
- "maybe" a regional fighter bomber (JH-XX?)
- general new air launched weapons (AAMs, AGMs, ALCMs, SOMs)

Naval domain (not including naval aviation/airwing):
- the eventual CVN (whatever 00X designation it ends up with)
- 055A/B and/or the "universal combatant"
- 054B
- whether there will be a successor to the 052D weight class category or not
- possible 075A?
- 076
- 039C SSK (which we've recently gotten pictures of over the last few months)
- new "micro reactor" augmented SSK
- 09IIIB SSN
- 09V SSN
- 09VI SSBN
- MUSV and LUSV pursuits
- UUV pursuits

Missile domain (overlapping with air and naval):
- new LACM/ALCM, likely stealthy in nature
- JL-3 SLBM
- continued pursuit and iteration of IRBMs and HGVs in terms of variants and new types
- DF-45 silo ICBM
- new AShMs
- hypersonic air breathing weapons
- new SAM types and variants (land based use and naval)

More exotic things in general:
- rail gun
- DEW
- new power generation system (naval applications in particular; IEPS)
- AI applications
- swarming UAVs
- high power microwave weapons
- space based systems

(Won't do ground case not my forte -- but obviously new IFV, new MBT, new artillery systems etc, integration of UAVs and so on are important)


In terms of "confirmed/existing systems to procure," I am talking about carefully following the number of existing or confirmed systems that the PLA will procure going forwards from 2021 and 2031, that are also important areas of interest and capability:

Air domain:
- J-20 number (including when they get WS-15s)
- J-16 number
- J-10C number
- H-6K/J/N number
- KJ-500 and KQ-200 number, as well as numbers of general GX series special mission aircraft
- Y-9 number
- Y-20 and Y-20U number (as well as when they start getting produced with WS-20s)
- WL-1 and WL-2 and WZ-7 and other HALE and MALE UAVs confirmed in service

Naval domain -- basically following the entire 14th 5 year plan (and 15th 5 year plan afterwards) will constitute:
- CV number (i.e.: how many 003 pattern carriers will they build before their CVN arrives)
- large destroyer number (055s, followed by 055A?)
- medium destroyer number (052Ds, followed by anything or not?)
- frigate number (054As, followed by 054B?)
- SSK number (039Cs now atm, it is likely 039Bs would've been superseded)
- SSN number (09IIIBs now atm most likely, as well as 09Vs once they are expected to arrive) --- this one in itself may be very strategically significant and huge to keep an eye on (both figuratively and literally) given the scope of Bohai's yard expansion
- SSBN number (anymore 09IVs, or will they move onto 09VIs)
- 071 number
- 075 number (075s as baseline now, or an improved 075A)
- any restart of LSTs
- LCAC number
- replenishment ship number
- special mission ELINT ship number
- MCM number

Missile domain:
- DF-41 number
- DF-31AG number
- DF-31B number
- DF-26, DF-16, DF-17 number etc
- GLCM and ALCM number
- land based AShM number
- land based SAM number


... the above of course is not fully exhaustive, but even off the top of my head, that's quite a lot to monitor over the next decade both in terms of "new systems to develop" and "confirmed/existing systems to procure"

So no, I'd say that we still have quite a lot to keep tabs on.

 

[GTI]

In terms of PLA watching, I broadly categorize areas of interest into "new systems to be developed" and "confirmed/existing systems to procure"..

There is quite a lot that has been alluded to and rumoured to in recent years that we have yet to see and some things in the longer term that we can reasonably expect, in terms of "new systems that we will expect to get either revelations of or significant news/movement on" over the next decade (2021-2031):

Air domain:
- engine developments and integration onto aircraft (WS-15 in particular of course)
- new J-15B variant
- J-15D/16D EW variants in their final forms
- new force multiplier aircraft (Y-9 airframe derived and potentially Y-20 airframe derived)
- J-XY (both carrier based and potentially land based)
- twin seat J-20
- H-20
- new UAVs in general (HALE, MALE, AEW, helicopter, small size)
- stealthy strike UCAVs (GJ-11, and others)
- A2A UCAVs/loyal wingman aircraft (Dark Sword? Something else? Who knows)
- 6th generation fighter
- new helicopter designs
- hypersonic UAV pursuits
- "maybe" a regional fighter bomber (JH-XX?)
- general new air launched weapons (AAMs, AGMs, ALCMs, SOMs)

Naval domain (not including naval aviation/airwing):
- the eventual CVN (whatever 00X designation it ends up with)
- 055A/B and/or the "universal combatant"
- 054B
- whether there will be a successor to the 052D weight class category or not
- possible 075A?
- 076
- 039C SSK (which we've recently gotten pictures of over the last few months)
- new "micro reactor" augmented SSK
- 09IIIB SSN
- 09V SSN
- 09VI SSBN
- MUSV and LUSV pursuits
- UUV pursuits

Missile domain (overlapping with air and naval):
- new LACM/ALCM, likely stealthy in nature
- JL-3 SLBM
- continued pursuit and iteration of IRBMs and HGVs in terms of variants and new types
- DF-45 silo ICBM
- new AShMs
- hypersonic air breathing weapons
- new SAM types and variants (land based use and naval)

More exotic things in general:
- rail gun
- DEW
- new power generation system (naval applications in particular; IEPS)
- AI applications
- swarming UAVs
- high power microwave weapons
- space based systems

(Won't do ground case not my forte -- but obviously new IFV, new MBT, new artillery systems etc, integration of UAVs and so on are important)


In terms of "confirmed/existing systems to procure," I am talking about carefully following the number of existing or confirmed systems that the PLA will procure going forwards from 2021 and 2031, that are also important areas of interest and capability:

Air domain:
- J-20 number (including when they get WS-15s)
- J-16 number
- J-10C number
- H-6K/J/N number
- KJ-500 and KQ-200 number, as well as numbers of general GX series special mission aircraft
- Y-9 number
- Y-20 and Y-20U number (as well as when they start getting produced with WS-20s)
- WL-1 and WL-2 and WZ-7 and other HALE and MALE UAVs confirmed in service

Naval domain -- basically following the entire 14th 5 year plan (and 15th 5 year plan afterwards) will constitute:
- CV number (i.e.: how many 003 pattern carriers will they build before their CVN arrives)
- large destroyer number (055s, followed by 055A?)
- medium destroyer number (052Ds, followed by anything or not?)
- frigate number (054As, followed by 054B?)
- SSK number (039Cs now atm, it is likely 039Bs would've been superseded)
- SSN number (09IIIBs now atm most likely, as well as 09Vs once they are expected to arrive) --- this one in itself may be very strategically significant and huge to keep an eye on (both figuratively and literally) given the scope of Bohai's yard expansion
- SSBN number (anymore 09IVs, or will they move onto 09VIs)
- 071 number
- 075 number (075s as baseline now, or an improved 075A)
- any restart of LSTs
- LCAC number
- replenishment ship number
- special mission ELINT ship number
- MCM number

Missile domain:
- DF-41 number
- DF-31AG number
- DF-31B number
- DF-26, DF-16, DF-17 number etc
- GLCM and ALCM number
- land based AShM number
- land based SAM number


... the above of course is not fully exhaustive, but even off the top of my head, that's quite a lot to monitor over the next decade both in terms of "new systems to develop" and "confirmed/existing systems to procure"

So no, I'd say that we still have quite a lot to keep tabs on.

Wasn’t there also some talk/speculation of a final H-6 iteration as well (H-6X or H-6Z)?

To be honest, I’ve actually been thinking that those of us who are newer to PLA watching are a bunch of spoilt kids who have it good now, compared to what our respected old hands had to make do with in the past. With all the exciting developments and growth in the number of watchers sharing info (including “NGOs”, media and governments) it seems that way more information is available today and the future of PLA watching is exceedingly bright. Added to the general trends in development/progress of high technology and the Information Age etc.

Meanwhile, you guys used to “walk 20km to school, uphill, both ways!”

(anyone with “ethnic” parents will resonate with that one)

 

[Blitzo]

Wasn’t there also some talk/speculation of a final H-6 iteration as well (H-6X or H-6Z)?

To be honest, I’ve actually been thinking that those of us who are newer to PLA watching are a bunch of spoilt kids who have it good now, compared to what our respected old hands had to make do with in the past. With all the exciting developments and growth in the number of watchers sharing info (including “NGOs”, media and governments) it seems that way more information is available today and the future of PLA watching is exceedingly bright. Added to the general trends in development/progress of high technology and the Information Age etc.

Meanwhile, you guys used to “walk 20km to school, uphill, both ways!”

(anyone with “ethnic” parents will resonate with that one)

The ones who were active in the 1990s, before the internet started to enable information dissemination, and when advancements and emergence of new systems seemed so much more insurmountable, have probably seen the most changes.