Chinese semiconductor industry

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krautmeister

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We are also seeing this in military leadership front. I think Xi is trying to accelerate the promotion of those who got their commission in the 00 and 10s to brigade and division leadership. Most of the flag grades got their commission in the 90s and were ruined by the business culture permeating PLA at the time.
If Xi Jinping didn't come to power, the PLA would have still been rotting inside out. Remember the nonsense in the 2000s when they were using military procurement to make consumer products for profit? That wasn't just a few bad apples here and there. A lot of the budget was diverted to these wacky for profit endeavors. Imo, Hu Jintao was a shitty leader. He wasn't as bad as most typical Western bureaucrat types, but he let that nonsense run amok the entire time he was in charge. There wasn't enough fiscal responsibility and nowhere near enough oversight. The fiscal risks China has today is a direct result of many hundreds of billions if not trillions of wasted public spend under Hu's tenure that ended up on wasteful spending, extravagant parties, defrauded public funds, money that mysterious disappeared overseas, etc. This still goes on here and there but NOTHING like before. Today, China is actually pretty good on the corruption front and it's being helped by the Americans unifying China with all their attacks.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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He's a crafty businessman who have noticed there are different ways of doing things. It's switching working models that's all. SpaceX is here after years and years of failures and step by step progress. It won lots of funding. It does things differently to NASA and the other major contractors used by NASA. I wouldn't attribute everything to Elon himself but it obviously wouldn't be possible without him. Or at least take some time.

He got himself a pretty good team. But I think saying he had nothing to do with the success of the company is near sighted. Just look at what happened with Blue Origin, a company founded earlier, with more money than SpaceX. They are still stuck in low earth orbit. SpaceX had a viable development model and commercial model and that is one reason why they succeeded.
The same thing could be said about Tesla. It was a niche company which basically integrated existing components in a really expensive car before he got to head the company. After he went in they started manufacturing their own cars, not just assembling kits. Major difference.

He's offloaded plenty of failed ideas and things just had no chance of working until breakthroughs and economic problems associated are solved. SpaceX is successful here and now because the right amount of money have been thrown at the right people with the right organisation. It could be better of course but it could be also much worse.

SpaceX and Tesla had their own issues, and some of them we can blame on Elon's decisions. For example, the Tesla Roadster had to spend huge resources on a large recall because the transmissions broke. This was because Elon insisted the car had to have a manual transmission against the advice of the engineering team. This nearly killed the company. He fired the CEO then because of that recall and put himself in his place when he himself was to blame. The Tesla SolarCity purchase was also a massive scam. With regards to SpaceX proper, they should have gone with regeneratively cooled engine nozzles earlier, but I personally think that was a minor problem.

The US has a lot of talent and attract plenty abroad. In fact nowadays, a disproportionately high number of US tech industries is not only led by and founded by foreigners, they are run and worked by foreign borns and even foreign educated. Some industries it's nearly half. I'm saying SpaceX isn't a miracle and isn't that impressive considering it's major claim to awesomeness is its re-usable tech that it's pioneered into success further than anyone else has in the past. That's literally it. US space contractors have built the Saturn V and F1 engine. It's long had working capsules and space firsts that match the Soviets and Russians in impressiveness. The talent, institutions, organisation was always there along with the size of funding. SpaceX did not that much more than rebrand it all, and reorganised with "privately" driven goals rather than purely government ones - it wants to put people on Mars (apparently Elon's personal mission) and provide contracting service to public programs and missions.

You can say that for much of the US commercial industry to be honest. The semiconductor industry was initially all military oriented. Try reading about the life of Seymour Cray for example.

So what's interesting with SpaceX is the incentive model being changed rather than its abilities and technology developed which of course is impressive. But the US was always impressive and mostly moving forward with impressive speeds, after Von Braun and Project Paperclip... and importing "the Martians".

Some of the SpaceX technology is impressive. Their vehicles have a really small dry mass fraction and are terribly cheap to manufacture. That in itself is an engineering feat. A lot of people talk about Von Braun, but to be honest the Soviets did the same thing. That is how they were the first to manufacture proper air defense missiles like the S-75 Dvina. They had the German Wasserfall missile team. The lead they got in these kinds of systems still exists today. The Soviets also had the first uranium centrifuges because of German researchers. But if you look at it, the F-1 engine used in the Saturn V was designed by US engineers and the Soviet R-7 rocket's engine was designed by Soviet engineers.

Now find me a Chinese billionaire who is actively working for China and trying to break western "chokeholds" on various industries...

None that I can think of to be honest. But even Elon had to be an import.

They are hoarding billions and dont move a finger to help China achieve its goals

Elon threw millions and millions into SpaceX with slim chances of succeeding (he said that he thought he had 10% chance of succeeding).
So where all these Chinese billionaires throwing money into IC, Aircraft, Brain Interface Devices (?) etc ?

Well, it is a lot easier for a US company to get talent for such projects than in China where most of that kind of work is probably classified. China has to figure out some way to solve this problem. It is a lot easier to license government researched tech and put it into the commercial sector in the US.

They are all sitting at their thumbs and waiting for the Gov to throw some subsidies, make some half-hearted effort and then pocket the money

The Chinese Gov has been begging for domestic IC tech development for decades. Where were all these "very patriotic" billionaires while China needed IC tech

You had the "Princeling" son of Jiang Zemin and now you have Taiwan expats (SMIC) basically.

So how are elon's hyperloop and boring company doing? His fans are just as deluded as the hyper himself.

You should notice that Elon threw the idea out there but never put any of his own money into it. All these Hyperloop companies out there aren't owned by him. That should be telling you enough. The Boring Company and Hyperloop are retarded concepts to derail high-speed rail development in the US and/or to sell more EVs. That tunnel they made in Las Vegas is particularly ridiculous. They did not even bother making autonomous vehicles for the circuit. It is basically a hugely expensive Tesla EV theme park ride.
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
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Well, I know one example of this from the 1990s. In the 1990s Commodore Business Machines, a personal computer company which at one point in the 1980s was competing with the likes of Apple went bankrupt. They had a production facility in the Phillipines which manufactured the Amiga CD32 console and they had their own hardware custom chip design team in the Eastern US in PA. The former UK branch leader of the Commodore computer division had a deal with Chinese investors where they would get the full IP to manufacture this personal computer in China and export it worldwide. They would also provide seed capital to make a next generation integrated chip design to compete with the likes of the Sony PlayStation later. The Chinese investors got woodwinked by a German company (Eskom) who promised them the Commodore IP for free in case they pulled the investment from the UK branch leader's proposal. This happened at the last minute, and once the German company got Commodore Business International assets for peanuts they basically kept the Commodore trademark to sell boxed IBM PC compatibles in Germany, and left those Chinese investors in the cold. The Amiga personal computer division was knifed. So China could have had its own personal computer IP on the cheap and they blew it. The Amiga had its own chipset, hardware design teams, its own operating system, etc. Back when this sale happened in 1995 the Amiga 1200 computer they had in production was still a viable personal computer which cost less than $599 USD and had massive sales in Eastern Europe and could have had massive sales in China too. IBM PCs were too expensive for the vast majority of Chinese then.

I'll tell you what China got instead of cheap personal computers around that time. They got the current Oppo founder buying Nintendo Famicon console clones from Taiwan and reselling them in China.
The crazy thing is, those game machine clones made Oppo-Vivo the huge company it is today and yet those legends like the Commodore 64, Timex Sinclair 1000, Amigas went the way of the dodo bird.


Tesla bought Maxwell a couple of years back for peanuts. Maxwell is probably THE world leader in supercapacitor research with military and industrial clients and they had also done their own solid battery research. I think you will see some product sooner or later. Remember, SpaceX did not have a
Tesla has been planning a modified version of Maxwell's dry electrode battery tech sometime this year in their Texas gigafactory. Supposedly, this alone will radically reduce the factory footprint needed for mass manufacturing batteries at scale to something close to 10-1 ratio or something like that.


satellite industry until a couple of years back and now they have Starlink. The Starlink satellites are pretty advanced for what they are regardless of what we may think of the commercial viability of Starlink itself. I think the US military will fund Starlink like they did with Iridium even if it is not commercially viable. Starlink is only marginally possible because of massive SpaceX vertical integration of everything from design to manufacture and operation of launchers and satellites. Like I was saying, the Starlink satellites have their own custom ion engines and laser links. Neither of these are particularly simple to develop and yet they did it and are building these in a production line in series.
China's own Starlink was recently forced to accelerate their plan because Starlink and other competitors are closing in on deployment. The HongYan satellite internet network was supposed to comprise a few hundred satellites from LEO to MEO but altered the original plan and timeline to increase that number to over 12000+ microsatellites emulating the designs of StarLink. I don't know how they will control all this potential space garbage from collisions but there were also recent breakthroughs in China's domestic ion engines. Supposedly, their latest Hall Effect thrusters have reached the world's leading edge and can now power space missions to the outer solar system if they wanted to.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
If Xi Jinping didn't come to power, the PLA would have still been rotting inside out. Remember the nonsense in the 2000s when they were using military procurement to make consumer products for profit? That wasn't just a few bad apples here and there. A lot of the budget was diverted to these wacky for profit endeavors. Imo, Hu Jintao was a shitty leader. He wasn't as bad as most typical Western bureaucrat types, but he let that nonsense run amok the entire time he was in charge. There wasn't enough fiscal responsibility and nowhere near enough oversight. The fiscal risks China has today is a direct result of many hundreds of billions if not trillions of wasted public spend under Hu's tenure that ended up on wasteful spending, extravagant parties, defrauded public funds, money that mysterious disappeared overseas, etc. This still goes on here and there but NOTHING like before. Today, China is actually pretty good on the corruption front and it's being helped by the Americans unifying China with all their attacks.
@krautmeister bro in defense of Hu Jin Tao he doesn't hold the reins of power within the CPC at that time, the one to blame is Jiang Zemin (hold the general secretariat and the CMC chairmanship even after his term is over), the archetype of a bureaucratic buffoon comparable to Yeltsin (such character is prevalent during that ERA). China is lucky that the power structure of the CPC created by Deng is able to prevent such personality to lord over the party. By Putting Zhu Rongji (the unsung hero) there to assist and reform the economy.
 
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krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
@krautmeister bro in defense of Hu Jin Tao he doesn't hold the reins of power within the CPC at that time, the one to blame is Jiang Zemin (hold the general secretariat and the CMC chairmanship even after his term is over), the archetype of a bureaucratic buffoon comparable to Yeltsin (such character is prevalent during that ERA). China is lucky that the power structure of the CPC created by Deng is able to prevent such personality to lord over the party. By Putting Zhu Rongji (the unsung hero) there to assist and reform the economy.
I think it's a stretch to be comparing Jiang Zemin to Boris Yeltsin. Jiang was quite effective but yeah he was allowing all the same corrupt BS that Hu allowed, but he also lead China from that era when the reformists were still not yet fully entrenched. He also initiated the singularly most important initiative launched by China in the last 40 years, the expansion of secondary education and university education. This alone is the main reason why China is now able to tackle what used to be impossible challenges, for lack of talent, despite the huge population. This alone is what makes tech sanctions idiotic because China is on the way to the Moon....or maybe Pluto because of its education. This is because of Jiang Zemin. Btw, can you imagine if Zhu Rongji was ruling alongside Xi Jinping now? China never had a more competent Premier.

Boris Yeltsin? Wow, what an utter tool, a complete fool, alcoholic failure who impoverished and embarrassed a once towering symbol of power. A lesson that I think China took to heart. Don't be a dog or else you'll end up like post Soviet Russia. Putin was a freaking savior, and I think that is why he is so demonized by the West because they wanted Russia to fall down much further. By, the "West", I always mean the Anglo-American duo.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Jiang and Hu did a great job, man. All you have to do is look at China when Jiang came to power in 1993 compared to when Hu stepped down in 2012. A world of difference. Were they perfect? Of course not. But no one is. God emperor Xi isn't perfect either.
@gadgetcool5 bro we're deviating from the thread but I totally agree with your statement, only when Xi step down then we can do an unfiltered examination of his job tenure as CCP Chairman.
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jiang and Hu did a great job, man. All you have to do is look at China when Jiang came to power in 1993 compared to when Hu stepped down in 2012. A world of difference. Were they perfect? Of course not. But no one is. God emperor Xi isn't perfect either.
I only agree about Jiang. He did do a very good job. But Hu? Hu had the positive momentum created by the Jiang-Zhu government. China was basically on auto-pilot at that time with multiple positive converging trends pushing China ever higher, farther, richer, faster. Hu didn't actually initiate anything or sustain anything lasting that he could claim he actually accomplished. What I remember of his time is rampant corruption that became worse during his time and almost every single accomplishment was the result of decisions made not by his direct decisions but by the tens of thousands of other CPC officials in positions of power. That is what I mean. China was doing a bang up job at that time, but I am focused on HIM, what did HE do? To me, he did practically nothing other than being a good bureaucrat who didn't rock the boat. By contrast, look what Xi has done. It's not just about the corruption. The guy improved living standards dramatically, he raised the poor with multiple changes to minimum wages, went on an actual F**king war on poverty, not just intermittent campaigns. He dramatically ramped up R&D spend, drove the higher education system expansion into hyperdrive to the extent that CHina now has 54.4% of its school age population enrolled in tertiary education, with that number closing in on 75% within 10 years. Given the ratio of STEM students in China universities, that in the next 25-30 years, we are going to see China having something like twice the STEM researchers of the entire OECD combined. Yes, double the number of engineers or higher level researchers within China than the entire developed world combined. That is how sick it is going to be. I didn't mention anything about what is going on with the environmental progress but it is also stupendous, but this message is already getting too long.
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
A huge company which still assembles products from chips it neither designs nor produces. Just one step removed from being sanctioned into oblivion.
Oppo is expected to release their first in-housed designed SoC this year. Also, Xiaomi is expected to finally come out with the long awaited successor to the Surge S1 SoC.

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The rumor is, Xiaomi and Oppo are cooperating with UniSoc to develop a 5G SoC. Xiaomi's first SoC from 2017, the Surge S1, was built on the 28nm process for one of their mid-tier phones. So, in the case of sanctions on these 3 companies, assuming they can access a 14nm fab, they're only chance is if they use Harmony OS and hope the performance boost will make it competitive.
 
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