Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

[Dolcevita]

You seem to misunderstand the stats.

What matters is the real growth rate of 4.2% in local currency, which is what determines improvements in living standards.

You can have breakneck nominal growth of 10% per year.
But if your inflation rate is also 10%, then you actually have economic stagnation.

On exchange rate appreciation, didn't you learn from my previous post directed specifically to you? I've reposted it below.
This is really basic economics.

Not disagreeing with you.
i believe JPY/USD rate are as follows for the dates given,

1973 360
1978 200
1988 120
!995 80

Hence there was a huge impact on the GDP in USD for the years being discussed. Any discussions will need to be based on local currency as there are wild fluctuations in terms of growth rate in USD.

 

[sinophilia]

You seem to misunderstand the stats.

What matters is the real growth rate of 4.2% in local currency, which is what determines improvements in living standards.

You can have breakneck nominal growth of 10% per year.
But if your inflation rate is also 10%, then you actually have economic stagnation.

On exchange rate appreciation, didn't you learn from my previous post directed specifically to you? I've reposted it below.
This is really basic economics.

I specifically mentioned this when I said, "even with inflation and currency appreciation that wouldn't be true".

You are telling me that Japan had 10% inflation every year for 2 decades and that's what was making its economy double in size every few years back then?

 

[Tyler]

There already kind of is. Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

But India is part of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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Spin. Just because the US says Americans talk and address the problems China accused of the US, it doesn't mean they've dealt with the problem. Like Trump thinking how he worked against China more than any other President... and he failed at it. US civil rights have been around for half a decade and there are still problems. The US, who doesn't like the trophy culture, thinks it deserves credit for trying because they certainly haven't succeeded. It's like with Megan Markle scandal where British like to brag they ended slavery on their own without a war... But they still had slaves... Just because they decided not to have slaves, does that mean it erases the crime? China giving the US a taste of their own medicine shocked them. They were probably expecting a one-sided affair that they can show-off to say Biden was tough on China. What this meeting really says it's only going to get worse if the US continues this direction. That's why the US will continue "mending relations with allies" because that's the easy part.

 

[4Runner]

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Spin. Just because the US says Americans talk and address the problems China accused of the US, it doesn't mean they've dealt with the problem. Like Trump thinking how he worked against China more than any other President... and he failed at it. US civil rights have been around for half a decade and there are still problems. The US, who doesn't like the trophy culture, thinks it deserves credit for trying because they certainly haven't succeeded. It's like with Megan Markle scandal where British like to brag they ended slavery on their own without a war... But they still had slaves... Just because they decided not to have slaves, does that mean it erases the crime? China giving the US a taste of their own medicine shocked them. They were probably expecting a one-sided affair that they can show-off to say Biden was tough on China. What this meeting really says it's only going to get worse if the US continues this direction. That's why the US will continue "mending relations with allies" because that's the easy part.

China US relation will stabilize during Biden admin. Biden knows better than any other US politician that it is an illusion that China CPC government would collapse. And he knows China is not Soviet Union, quite opposite. So it is a cruel reality for the US politicians that they have to deal with a peer in a new type of competition for the foreseeable future. Neither side has past experience to lean on. To borrow a stock trading term, Biden's China handling is low open while taking time for bottom forming. It is anyone's guess if there is a breakout in the next 3 years. But China only expects stabilization, for all practical purposes. So it is to both interests in that direction. Hence, Biden can fire salvos toward Putin. Do remember that Biden has personal beef agains Putin. Quite opposite, Biden has a pretty good relationship with Xi. A side reminder to help make my point, do read US MSM articles on how John Kerry and Yang Jiechi made Paris Climate Agreement a reality.

So that Alaska show was amazing and entertaining. The big boys are now dealing with their own businesses after entertaining their constituents in a dramatic manner. LOL

 

[voyager1]

China US relation will stabilize during Biden admin. Biden knows better than any other US politician that it is an illusion that China CPC government would collapse. And he knows China is not Soviet Union, quite opposite. So it is a cruel reality for the US politicians that they have to deal with a peer in a new type of competition for the foreseeable future. Neither side has past experience to lean on. To borrow a stock trading term, Biden's China handling is low open while taking time for bottom forming. It is anyone's guess if there is a breakout in the next 3 years. But China only expects stabilization, for all practical purposes. So it is to both interests in that direction. Hence, Biden can fire salvos toward Putin. Do remember that Biden has personal beef agains Putin. Quite opposite, Biden has a pretty good relationship with Xi. A side reminder to help make my point, do read US MSM articles on how John Kerry and Yang Jiechi made Paris Climate Agreement a reality.

So that Alaska show was amazing and entertaining. The big boys are now dealing with their own businesses after entertaining their constituents in a dramatic manner. LOL

IMO this period of strategic competition will show the resilience and flexibility of each country's political system.

Biden is now focused on domestic issues. He passed the covid stimulus checks of 1.9 trillion. How now wants an infrastructure bill passed as well. (2-4 trillion dollars lol), lets see what he can on this.

Xi on the other hand, while strengthened domestically, there still some resistance on reforms, enforcement of existing laws and regulations and playing hide-and-seek with local governments on debt management.

However Xi is making a strong start, as shown by the antimonopoly campaign and most significantly on the 5 year plan, the term "national security" is shown many times which means that Xi would be able to steamroll any opposition to reforms due to "national security issues"


We will now see which country is more efficient and resilient. Xi wants to develop China, so the ball is on his court to show the world that his policies are working among a more volatile global environment.

 

[AndrewS]

I specifically mentioned this when I said, "even with inflation and currency appreciation that wouldn't be true".

You are telling me that Japan had 10% inflation every year for 2 decades and that's what was making its economy double in size every few years back then?

The inflation rate was an insane 23% in 1974.

If you do the calculations, you can see the Japanese economy doubled in size between 1973-1979, solely due to inflation.

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[ansy1968]

IMO this period of strategic competition will show the resilience and flexibility of each country's political system.

Biden is now focused on domestic issues. He passed the covid stimulus checks of 1.9 trillion. How now wants an infrastructure bill passed as well. (2-4 trillion dollars lol), lets see what he can on this.

Xi on the other hand, while strengthened domestically, there still some resistance on reforms, enforcement of existing laws and regulations and playing hide-and-seek with local governments on debt management.

However Xi is making a strong start, as shown by the antimonopoly campaign and most significantly on the 5 year plan, the term "national security" is shown many times which means that Xi would be able to steamroll any opposition to reforms due to "national security issues"


We will now see which country is more efficient and resilient. Xi wants to develop China, so the ball is on his court to show the world that his policies are working among a more volatile global environment.

@voyager1 this personal attacks on Putin and Xi really expose the weak hand the US is currently holding. They don't have an effective leader. Putin had his baptism of fire during the Georgian war, Xi on this pandemic, while Biden need his medicine to climb strait and not fall down while Trump last 4 years in office is a disaster. There you have it this denial stage will last until 2022 were Biden will be replace by Kamala, the Obama people is preparing the ground for the possible succession, the George Stephanopolous interview and Biden stair fall is like a scripted attempt to highlight Biden incapability.

 

[voyager1]

@voyager1 this personal attacks on Putin and Xi really expose the weak hand the US is currently holding. They don't have an effective leader. Putin had his baptism of fire during the Georgian war, Xi on this pandemic, while Biden need his medicine to climb strait and not fall down while Trump last 4 years in office is a disaster. There you have it this denial stage will last until 2022 were Biden will be replace by Kamala, the Obama people is preparing the ground for the possible succession, the George Stephanopolous interview and Biden stair fall is like a scripted attempt to highlight Biden incapability.

True. Xi especially has proven himself. First with the SCS, then the trade war (big big issue), tech war (ongoing), and finally the biggest of it the covid. In every issue Xi has shown a strong response and sufficient flexibility. However, I am still worried on the local governements skirting around laws and regulations.
Encouraging though that Xi himself mentioned that he will start a serious anticorruption campaign on the extremely corrupt Inner Mongolia.

Regarding Biden, obviously the guy shouldnt be running a country on this age and it shows.. And everyone can see the Democrat's intention on having Kamala Harris as the vice president.. Either in a few years, Biden will step down or in the next election Kamala will run for election.
Btw, Harris is hated among the Republicans and disliked among the Democrats, I hope they dont make her run for president because I guess they lose to the Republicans

 

[caudaceus]

True. Xi especially has proven himself. First with the SCS, then the trade war (big big issue), tech war (ongoing), and finally the biggest of it the covid. In every issue Xi has shown a strong response and sufficient flexibility. However, I am still worried on the local governements skirting around laws and regulations.
Encouraging though that Xi himself mentioned that he will start a serious anticorruption campaign on the extremely corrupt Inner Mongolia.

Regarding Biden, obviously the guy shouldnt be running a country on this age and it shows.. And everyone can see the Democrat's intention on having Kamala Harris as the vice president.. Either in a few years, Biden will step down or in the next election Kamala will run for election.
Btw, Harris is hated among the Republicans and disliked among the Democrats, I hope they dont make her run for president because I guess they lose to the Republicans

Harris is not a long time player in Washington unlike Biden, interested to see her policy and so on should she got the office.