Chinese Economics Thread
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China dominates world export markets despite US trade war
Asian countries' supply chain dependence deepens, with RCEP set to boost trend
The extent of the global economy's dependence on China is becoming clear.
With the coronavirus pandemic disrupting global logistics, there has been growing momentum to reduce dependence on China in supply chains. But China's share of global exports is actually rising, and is now even exceeding the level before the Sino-U.S. trade war broke out in 2018. Some believe that the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement between 15 countries in Asia and Oceania, will boost China's presence in global trade yet further.
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Of course once the global economy recovers from the pandemic, we don't know what long term trends will take hold. We can only wait and observe
Asian countries' supply chain dependence deepens, with RCEP set to boost trend
The extent of the global economy's dependence on China is becoming clear.
With the coronavirus pandemic disrupting global logistics, there has been growing momentum to reduce dependence on China in supply chains. But China's share of global exports is actually rising, and is now even exceeding the level before the Sino-U.S. trade war broke out in 2018. Some believe that the recently agreed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement between 15 countries in Asia and Oceania, will boost China's presence in global trade yet further.
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Of course once the global economy recovers from the pandemic, we don't know what long term trends will take hold. We can only wait and observe
It is already set to happen in 2020, even before covid.
I'm sure one has the ability to go and add to or change the narrative in these Wiki posts.
CPTPP marks a higher level of free trade
On Nov 20, just a week after the RCEP signing ceremony, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China welcomes the signing of the RCEP and will favorably consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
On Nov 20, just a week after the RCEP signing ceremony, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China welcomes the signing of the RCEP and will favorably consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
This is not a good thing, alot of growth is in consumer products. To be honest, alot of global consumers are now "shopped out", I presume by 2021-2022 people will want to go on vacation and holidays and go eat out at restaurants alot more, as there has been a derth of human interaction this year. They had a podcast about this in the economist.
The factory surges right now are temporary, China needs to be able to pivot as rapidly as possible as export demand will dry up. Some export demand will dry up from decoupling, but the majority will just be reallocation of consumer behavior from an abnormal year in 2020. I think the fact that china didnt have a prolonged lockdown does give it a fiscal headroom to spend quite liberally in 2021-2023 on "final modernization" infrastructure (i.e. nuclear plants, rail lines, green energy). I don't think China would get credit for "under-stimulating" relative to the other major economies during the lockdown so it mind as well just engage in some extra spending; not excessive, but enough to put china in the lower bound of the G8 (i.e. $3 trillion stimulus package at about 15-20% GDP).
What China is about to overtake U.S. in is retail sales of consumer goods. Using the Chinese definition, services other than the food service industry are not included. For example, apartment rents, healthcare spending, education spending, spending on film tickets, games, train tickets, airfare and so on, none of them are included.