China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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ougoah

Brigadier
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Let's not forget China is many times more populous than the US and Russia combined. Yet it considers less than 1/10 of their stockpiles enough? Unless they have some truly next level WMDs I would think this is foolish even considering the now non-existent political benefits of reporting a small stockpile and the pocket change that's saved.

China is many times wealthier than Russia nominally and about as rich per capita yet their lives are not as worthy of even half Russia's stockpile?

Nuclear war is more possible than ever especially considering how the US has recently been flirting with tactical nuke use against Russia and China. It's not enough to have a maybe we can retaliate taking out half of their country while we get covered by nukes. It ought to be we can cover the earth many times over and will not back down from aggression. BTW I think we can all agree the US is the aggressive one when it comes to threatening kinetic war on others and actually doing it on smaller and more unfortunate nations.

More nukes and more potent weapons preserve the uneasy peace until we can grow up as a species. Fewer weapons do not. I think that's obvious from observing every bit history can teach us and the behaviour of imperialists throughout history. Even China's own tyrants proved this. The threat of nuclear annihilation kept USSR and US from direct military confrontation and still keep the Korean peninsula intact. I imaging it's also what has saved China from US military "intervention" countless times.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
And from the very same article: " Fu said in the Kommersant interview that in nuclear arsenal terms, China should be classified together with France and Britain. "

And what do you expect him to say China has 5000 warhead ? I can imagine the headline in NYT or BBC or Fox new the next day "China is warmonger prepare for war" And what it do to the image that China has been cultivating like "China peaceful rise" It will be catastrophe of epic proportion to Chinese diplomacy. Of course he said the obvious thing
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
And what do you expect him to say China has 5000 warhead ? I can imagine the headline in NYT or BBC or Fox new the next day "China is warmonger prepare for war" And what it do to the image that China has been cultivating like "China peaceful rise" It will be catastrophe of epic proportion to Chinese diplomacy. Of course he said the obvious thing
China needs to realize the Bid yo time is over
If it doesnt have 1000, it needs at least 1000
Actually an ideal number would be 10000, China can afford it
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
China needs to realize the Bid yo time is over
If it doesnt have 1000, it needs at least 1000
Actually an ideal number would be 10000, China can afford it

That would actually be intense overkill. 5000 warheads can basically cover the Earth more than once which is what Russia and US consider enough to have the desired effect of holding other powers to a certain limit. I'd think even 5000 warheads is too much seeing as China should have no desire to land nukes on Africa, south America, central Asia, Russia, or the Middle East. 1000 to 2000 warheads should be enough to have minimum security against US and western Europe and even against prolific and effective BMD, it's enough to make their leaders think twice about kinetic war.

Given the assumed and hinted numbers of Chinese ballistic missiles, nuclear capable cruise missiles, and SLBM + SSBN in service and being developed/built, 1000 to 2000 warheads seems about right.
 

Nobonita Barua

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That would actually be intense overkill. 5000 warheads can basically cover the Earth more than once which is what Russia and US consider enough to have the desired effect of holding other powers to a certain limit. I'd think even 5000 warheads is too much seeing as China should have no desire to land nukes on Africa, south America, central Asia, Russia, or the Middle East. 1000 to 2000 warheads should be enough to have minimum security against US and western Europe and even against prolific and effective BMD, it's enough to make their leaders think twice about kinetic war.

Given the assumed and hinted numbers of Chinese ballistic missiles, nuclear capable cruise missiles, and SLBM + SSBN in service and being developed/built, 1000 to 2000 warheads seems about right.
3000. I would like to think China would have at least 1000 tactical nukes(that should be outside strategic MT yield city busters) sitting on HGV ready to be fired at any moment's notice if freedom tries to turn any native america into naughty america again.
 

bajingan

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China and russia NORAD style early warning system is going along nicely, the anti China alliance consisted of us, australia, japan and india is keep getting stronger therefore China must develop more military cooperation and interoperability with russia
western countries are hellbent in containing China and forming alliance against it, time to show the world that China can also form alliance
 

totenchan

New Member
Registered Member
I am although I must admit I was a little annoyed earlier and probably unfairly directed "beyond retarded" on you and sinophilia. But let me address your points with my opinions with more civility.



I don't think anyone here knows for sure how capable American BMD truly is. It could surprise us all with how pathetic or effective it is. Therefore it would be sensible to be more cautious while trying to ascertain details via studiously conducted intelligence gathering. It's also better to be prepared in developing increasingly penetrative and survivable delivery systems. There is no loss here since the arms race is happening anyway and so they need to be done regardless.

Nike programs and its predecessors have been impressive. Maybe successor BMD programs are far more effective against smaller and weaker nuclear powers but the threat should be respected.

Likely impossible to defend against to me doesn't sound good enough considering the price to pay for getting it wrong. Does it cost China that much just to expand their entire retaliation fleet from say 300 to say 1000? Maybe the economic optimal isn't that proportional increase, but whatever it is, that's where it should ideally be as opposed to remaining with 300 total warheads.



Sure but what if it comes down to that? It's not a matter of whether or not leaders have an appetite for this or that. It also assumes US political leadership is truly transparent, honest, and remains predictable in behaviour. None of these assumptions are sound.



Of course but I believe letting Europe go un-nuked in such a scenario where both North America and Asia are gone is bad out of principle. It's up to "us" to make them invested in preserving our survival. That's a small part of Cold War MAD anyway. To build a small model, let's say a hypothetical world where three main independent competing groups exist constantly fighting over finite resources. If group A and group B kill other off, group C inherits all the resources. In principle, it is in group C's interest to seek this path. Of course in real life, there are many more complexities and reasons why Europe obviously won't like such a devastating outcome but just out of pure principle on these two points, they ought to be destroyed in MAD. Especially when we also consider how Europe is often partly responsible for such a situation.

Also how does anyone know for sure that US policy isn't being at least partially directed from western Europe?



I was questioning your faith in survivable second strike being a guaranteed option that is effective. It is not because it's purely theoretical and there's no way the CCP can have such a close understanding of Russia's dead hand system.



Second strike means you need more warheads and delivery systems around than having first strike policy intact. You cannot possibly have less nukes to use in first strike while you can potentially have no nukes left with second strike. I feel this particular point is going to derail the main discussion here. My point is to say there are very few benefits in terms of having a stronger deterrence and ability to conduct second strike with a no first use policy. They rarely affect each other i.e. having no first use policy DOESN'T mean you have a stronger ability to respond to a first strike. It also doesn't further deter others from conducting first strike. It's advantages are mostly political in nature.



1000 warheads isn't a massive stockpile by my definition. It would be less than 1/5 of Russia's and US stockpile. If that's considered massive then US and Russian stockpiles should be called criminally unholy. China isn't UK where it has a beast backing it and no real enemies that would even consider first strike on it unless the world is going into total nuclear exchange. China is constantly threatened by criminally unholy warhead horders who have waged literally dozens of wars and murdered millions in the last century. Actual facts, not fabricated BS like millions of non-existant Uighurs or millions of student protestors. So I would imagine at least having 1/5 that warhead count is the bare minimum in a life insurance policy.

Late reply, sorry

1. Because it's basically impossible to hide missile defense tests, for the same reason it's impossible to hide missile or rocket tests. Therefore, we at least have a good idea of what the TESTED capabilities are for American missile defense, and it's not particularly impressive. However, if it's demonstrated that American missile defense becomes an actual threat to a successful second strike, it would justify an expansion of the Chinese warhead stockpile. This hasn't happened yet though. As for the uncertainty regarding a successful Chinese second strike being "not good enough," I think you should consider the perspective of the American leadership. Because they are basically always to be the attacker, consider: to American leadership, is missile defense that has never been tested against sophisticated targets "good enough" to justify a first strike? The answer, in my opinion, is sure to be no.

2. If we assume that US leaders aren't rational actors, then the whole paradigm of MAD goes out the window anyways. What's to stop them from just nuking China, consequences be damned, in that case?

3. I don't really agree with holding Western Europe responsible, and I feel like the scenario you described doesn't really reflect reality.

4. Neither survivable second strike nor a disarming first strike has been tested, and I dearly hope it stays that way. Both are totally theoretical, and that's not an issue, and should remain the norm for nuclear issues.

5. The difference between a first strike and a second strike is that the first strike needs missiles to take out the enemy's missile silos and C4 infrastructure. A second strike does not. I don't think you quite realize how damaging arms races are. The main benefit of a no-first-use policy is in fact that you aren't obligated to match the number of nukes to your opponents. What happened in the Cold War was grotesque, and China rightfully wants nothing to do with it.

6. 1000 stockpiles is the number I've seen floating around on weibo that people think the stockpile should increase to, I believe it was first floated by the editor-in-chief of the Global Times. He's no nuclear expert, and
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<-here's a good piece rebutting it. For the record, I do consider the US and Russian stockpiles criminally unholy, and I sincerely wish that China never joins them down that path. China's nuclear weapons are a deterrent, and you do not need many weapons as a deterrent. Even if China is beset on all sides by enemies, I don't see any evidence that those enemies will be able to stop a Chinese nuclear response, even if China's stockpiles remain low. China has rightfully invested much into delivery systems, and that's where the money should be focused, not building more warheads.
 

FangYuan

Junior Member
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China and russia NORAD style early warning system is going along nicely, the anti China alliance consisted of us, australia, japan and india is keep getting stronger therefore China must develop more military cooperation and interoperability with russia
western countries are hellbent in containing China and forming alliance against it, time to show the world that China can also form alliance


Buying weapons from Russia with TOT is a good way to strengthen the alliance between the two countries. Russia has money and China has technology. It would be good if China could produce Mi-26, Mi-28, Ka-52, Mig-35, Tu-95, T-14...
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Buying weapons from Russia with TOT is a good way to strengthen the alliance between the two countries. Russia has money and China has technology. It would be good if China could produce Mi-26, Mi-28, Ka-52, Mig-35, Tu-95, T-14...

Do you work for the Russian state ;)

Seems like you are quite obsessed with China spending 10s of billions of $$$ purchasing Russian equipment. You mention it a lot.
 
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