Chinese Economics Thread

[localizer]

I find it hard to believe that china can double its GDP in 15 years.


Australia wont stop selling iron or to china. They really need that export revenue.

Speaking of sino-australian relations, it appears that the australian government is starting to make signals for cooling down the anti-china rhetoric:

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With the right policies China can easily double GDP in 10-15 years.

Remember China is only at $10k GDP per capita.

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Fall of the dollar will help China achieve this goal.

 

[Gatekeeper]

I find it hard to believe that china can double its GDP in 15 years.


Australia wont stop selling iron or to china. They really need that export revenue.

Speaking of sino-australian relations, it appears that the australian government is starting to make signals for cooling down the anti-china rhetoric:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why?

All China need to do It's grow by 4.8% every year. And in 15 years it'll be doubled. Quite realistic given China's growth rate of past 30 years never fell below 6%.

Regarding Aus dialling back the rhetoric. Well it's a bit late for that. It's like a school bully punching someone to a pulp and then say he's sorry when he sees the big brother of the person he's been bullying coming round the corner.

 

[weig2000]

Different stations are usually well conneted by road, light-rail, subways, express buses and taxis.

The reason is quite simple why many cities have multiple stations. Before the age of HSR most cities had 1 or 2 rail stations. For example in my city Zhengzhou that would be the Zhengzhou Station. It is a major rail transit hub and located right in the city centre. However when HSR is built there came a problem, the station needs to expand to accommodate dedicated HSR railways but it's already at its limit when it comes to room for expansion as the surrounding land have all been developed. It would be extremely costly to tear down nearby builidings just to expand the railway station.

There was another prevalent problem, which was that the city itself was cramped and very crowded. It needs to grow and expand just like the station. So the solution to these two problems became rather obvious, to build a brand new, dedicated HSR station, far away from the city centre but located in an area close to the city that future development projects are concentrated in. Think of this not as building a second train station for one city, but a new station for a new city right beside the old city.

This solution solves multiple problems at once. First, design can start from scratch to make sure it is most state-of-the-art. Second, it allows HSR lines themselves to be off-centre as well, hence making land requisition much simpler, faster, and cheaper. Third, it provides a transport hub for the new development centre for the city. Fourth, it helps to feed growth to the new city centre, which in turn accelerates the new station's development. Fifth, it stimulates construction of connecting infrastructure, such as roads, light-rail, and subways. Sixth, it spreads out real-estate development as well, because new developments usually chase after such stations and along connecting subway stations. If the city is too concentrated, so will property prices. If transport hubs are more dispersed, then property prices will also be more evenly spread out.

In fact this model was so successful, that during the later stages of the HSR's development in China, many cities started to deliberately locate the new station to be off-centre, because the growth that it spurs is just enormous wherever it's located.

When this process repeats itself for nearby cities, what happens is that these cities, with their original city centres far away from each other, will gradually fuse together and become a continuous city group. This is most evident for cities in the Yangtze River delta (around Shanghai) and cities in the Pearl River delta (around Guangzhou, Shenzhen).

That strategy works well for tier-1 and tier-2 cities, when the population are growing rapidly and the cities are expanding quickly. It does not work so well for tie-3 and tier-4 cities where the population stagnate or even decrease. The shining high-speed rail station can become a white elephant project. The existing traffic is low and the station is too far from city center; the future growth potential is not there.

HSR is a very successful story for China overall, but there are lessons to be learned at local levels.

 

[solarz]

That strategy works well for tier-1 and tier-2 cities, when the population are growing rapidly and the cities are expanding quickly. It does not work so well for tie-3 and tier-4 cities where the population stagnate or even decrease. The shining high-speed rail station can become a white elephant project. The existing traffic is low and the station is too far from city center; the future growth potential is not there.

HSR is a very successful story for China overall, but there are lessons to be learned at local levels.

The purpose of the HSR is not to bring direct growth, it is to bring convenience and accessibility. From there, some cities might experience growth while other cities might simply experience an improved quality of life (shocking, I know!).

Growth for growth's sake is a western capitalist mistake that China needs to avoid.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

They certainly are. The sad thing is they think they've got a big win because they've "hurt" China in the process of digging.



No, it didn't have to be this way. But it wasn't China's choosing. The choice was entirely the Aussies.

View attachment 65852

Isn't that why Lu Xun wrote Ah Q? To warn us not to console ourselves in fake victories to make ourselves feel better, because other ppl are winning us? Now... I feel like Ah Q can be used for these Australians... and also Indians.

阿Q正传

 

[Gatekeeper]

That strategy works well for tier-1 and tier-2 cities, when the population are growing rapidly and the cities are expanding quickly. It does not work so well for tie-3 and tier-4 cities where the population stagnate or even decrease. The shining high-speed rail station can become a white elephant project. The existing traffic is low and the station is too far from city center; the future growth potential is not there.

HSR is a very successful story for China overall, but there are lessons to be learned at local levels.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=384315916317912

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=384315916317912

You can also balance coins on Chinese high speed trains while the trains are moving.

Regarding doubling GDP, you have to take into account the fact that the yuan will be appreciating, which will make it easier to hit GDP targets.

 

[Gatekeeper]

You can also balance coins on Chinese high speed trains while the trains are moving.

Regarding doubling GDP, you have to take into account the fact that the yuan will be appreciating, which will make it easier to hit GDP targets.

Yes, that's true. But I was trying to prove even without taking exchange rate appreciation into account.the doubling is possible within 15 years.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Yes, that's true. But I was trying to prove even without taking exchange rate appreciation into account.the doubling is possible within 15 years.

Yup, I think if the Chinese government and especially Xi himself mentioned that goal, they should have confidence in achieving that... even with black swans. It's not like another country with Superpower 2020 goals. I doubt they'll reach 5 trillion GDP in 2025, Mr Superpower 2020.

Sure there are a lot of doubters, as always, but why care about those doubters? Doubling by 2035 is a SMART goal, Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time Bound.

 

[antiterror13]

Nope, all this is the fault of Scot Morrison following Trump like a dog and ultimately ended up as a Chinese dish so to speak in the long run. But still, nothing will change until the USA buzzes off and Australia finally has had enough of the stupidity and elects Scomo out although that may take a while and whatever deal that comes after will no go in the favor of OZ this time.

I notice that Scot Morrison hasn't made any "bad" comments of China recently, perhaps he now realised it ... but a bit too late