News on China's scientific and technological development.

[localizer]

But when Japan was where China is they copied too.

Only when you are able to replicate it can you improve on it.

Science 101

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I think China has an opportunity right now due to all the shake ups going on.



1. Apple is going for ARM laptops away from Intel. This signifies potential death of X86 and Windows. X86 is outdated.
2. Risc-V might attract more attention from Apple/Qualcomm/Samsung as alternative to ARM under Nvidia.
3. Apple's push away from X86 along with the increased investment in Risc-V might give China a fair starting point in the post-ARM post-X86 post-Windows world.

 

[free_6ix9ine]

Ah right I was going off reports from March and April.

Here's what I've found

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Parity with Samsung 8nm (although still not strictly a cutting edge node) would be very impressive, although I'm not sure whether he's referring to N+1 or N+2. Assuming that he means N+2, it would mean that N+1 would most likely be on parity with TSMC 10FF, enough for high performance applications that do not need very high performance granted by 8LPP or 7N.

But when Japan was where China is they copied too.

Only when you are able to replicate it can you improve on it.

Science 101

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View attachment 63599



I think China has an opportunity right now due to all the shake ups going on.



1. Apple is going for ARM laptops away from Intel. This signifies potential death of X86 and Windows. X86 is outdated.
2. Risc-V might attract more attention from Apple/Qualcomm/Samsung as alternative to ARM under Nvidia.
3. Apple's push away from X86 along with the increased investment in Risc-V might give China a fair starting point in the post-ARM post-X86 post-Windows world.

Sure I'm not saying copying is bad or making money is not necessary. I'm just saying that the difference between China and Japan is the Japanese are willing to master the underlying core tech even though it may not be as profitable as just importing it. While most Chinese companies are too driven to make money, meaning that they will just import it. Surely it's not just because of culture, but you have to admit that Chinese people in general have no pride in their work and won't do anything unless there is a profit motive behind it....

It only took Huawei sanctions and a trade war to make Chinese people realize the importance of core tech....

 

[Hendrik_2000]

But when Japan was where China is they copied too.

Only when you are able to replicate it can you improve on it.

Science 101

It has nothing to do with copying but everything to do with supporting your local company Eg both Samsung semiconductor and SMIC both started by emigre but that is the only similarity
Samsung family founder Lee took what was then a fledgling venture company under Samsung wing even against the opposition of Samsung board. He end up using his personal money to support the then venture company allowing it to grow because he has vision.

But SMIC languished for 10 years because they have to scrapped the bottom for living. Nobody give them support other than maybe local municipality

 

[localizer]

Sure I'm not saying copying is bad or making money is not necessary. I'm just saying that the difference between China and Japan is the Japanese are willing to master the underlying core tech even though it may not be as profitable as just importing it. While most Chinese companies are too driven to make money, meaning that they will just import it. Surely it's not just because of culture, but you have to admit that Chinese people in general have no pride in their work and won't do anything unless there is a profit motive behind it....

It takes money to be able to do the basic research for fun. Also, research is a lot more expensive now.

Right now Chinese can only take pride in low-cost activities. What China has accomplished so far we should all be proud of. The poverty alleviation, no slums, South-North water transport, managing 1.4 billion people, safety, etc...

Imagine Chinese megaprojects in the future.

 

[free_6ix9ine]

It takes money to be able to do the basic research for fun. Also, research is a lot more expensive now.

Not doing it for fun. Its simply less profitable in the short run to do basic research. But very profitable in the long run to master core tech. It's too bad most companies in China only think short term.

 

[free_6ix9ine]

It has nothing to do with copying but everything to do with supporting your local company Eg both Samsung semiconductor and SMIC both started by emigre but that is the only similarity
Samsung family founder Lee took what was then a fledgling venture company under Samsung wing even against the opposition of Samsung board. He end up using his personal money to support the then venture company allowing it to grow because he has vision.

But SMIC languished for 10 years because they have to scrapped the bottom for living. Nobody give them support other than maybe local municipality

True, goes back to the inferiority complex and lack of collectivism in China. All these companies like Xiaomi and oppo and one plus are busy beating each other up rather than working together to help SMIC. Looks like they will learn a hard lesson once they are all sanctioned.

 

[localizer]

It has nothing to do with copying but everything to do with supporting your local company Eg both Samsung semiconductor and SMIC both started by emigre but that is the only similarity
Samsung family founder Lee took what was then a fledgling venture company under Samsung wing even against the opposition of Samsung board. He end up using his personal money to support the then venture company allowing it to grow because he has vision.

But SMIC languished for 10 years because they have to scrapped the bottom for living. Nobody give them support other than maybe local municipality

True, goes back to the inferiority complex and lack of collectivism in China. All these companies like Xiaomi and oppo and one plus are busy beating each other up rather than working together to help SMIC. Looks like they will learn a hard lesson once they are all sanctioned.

SMIC was a money grubbing scheme by Taiwanese. CCP Leadership failed on this one by letting them be the core of the company.


Most people don't know just how much Taiwanese hate the mainland.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Yep, exactly. I see this a lot. The Japanese and Germans have a passion and pride in what they do. It isn't about making money which is such a big part of the Chinese culture.

Everything needs balance. The Japanese/German way has led to stagnant economies doing business in ways that can't earn money but basically only exist to keep existing and feeding the owner's fetish for his niche trade. Obviously, making low end goods with as little investment as possible for just a profit makes you a banana republic country so that's no good neither. China's balance is shifting away from the banana republic model and gearing more and more into the Japanese/German model but it's quite far from either. Once it finds a balance of making high quality goods that drive the economy and work for the layman, they should decelerate and be very careful when they encounter severely diminishing returns on investments which the Japanese and Germans have trapped themselves into.

Chinese passion and long term tech planning need to be built on foundations of economic strength and supporting technology. It's not viable to try to throw everything down to conquer difficult core technologies when everything you have is not that much and you have nothing around to help or support your incredibly difficult endeavor. But that is changing in China as China becomes richer and snowballs momentum in technological advancement.

 

[free_6ix9ine]

Everything needs balance. The Japanese/German way has lead to stagnant economies because of doing business in ways that can't earn money but basically only exist to keep existing and feeding the owner's fetish for his trade. Obviously, making low end goods with as little investment as possible for just a profit makes you a banana republic country so that's no good neither. China's balance is shifting away from the banana republic model and gearing more and more into the Japanese/German model but it's quite far from either. Once it finds a balance of making high quality goods that drive the economy and work for the layman, they should decelerate and be very careful when they encounter severely diminishing returns on investments which the Japanese and Germans have trapped themselves into.

Chinese passion and long term tech planning need to be built on foundations of economic strength and supporting technology. It's not viable to try to throw everything down to conquer difficult core technologies when everything is not that much and you have nothing around you to help you. But that is changing in China as China becomes richer and snowballs momentum in technological advancement.

Agreed its a balance. China and Japan are on both ends of that scale.

 

[free_6ix9ine]

Exactly that is one defect of Chinese state of mind They take the easy way out and don't go the extra mile to do it their own way. Compare that to the Japanese as soon as they get exposed to new technology,they want to do it on their own Eg Toyoda originally a textile yarn equipment manufacturer then imported car but they didn't stop there They built their won in few years.
Coupled with their inferiority complex of worshiping anything import Even now this guy Ren he said he still worshiped US as his technical ancestor even though they want to murder him. What is wrong with this people?

China does this to a certain extent. At least the easy stuff. But when it is too hard. They don't bother. Trust me our military would be very similar to India if we had not been sanctioned. Cobbled together foreign equipment. The Japanese may have a different mindset in wanting to conquer core tech just cause. While China and India are just content on doing the easy stuff, unless they are forced by outsiders like the US.

You can make the argument that Indians are even lazier than the Chinese. In that they don't even bother to copy. They would rather bullshit and lie than even do the easy stuff.